NFL Analysis
1/8/25
18 min read
Ranking Every QB Storyline Entering 2024 NFL Postseason
Quarterbacks always are front and center come playoff time and it seems there are more intriguing story lines surrounding QBs this season than in recent years.
Start with the fact that 12 of the 14 playoff QBs are former first-round picks, with only Jalen Hurts (2nd) and Russell Wilson (3rd) as the outliers. Two of the players are on their fourth team (Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield), one on his third team (Russell Wilson), and two on their second team after being traded for each other (Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff). Two rookies will lead their teams in Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix.
There are three past Super Bowl champions in the mix (Patrick Mahomes, Stafford, and Wilson), one former MVP, and one soon-to-be (Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen) trying to reach their first Super Bowl. Standing in their way is the two-time league MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP Mahomes who is seeking to become the first QB to three-peat as Super Bowl champ and win his fourth as he chases Tom Brady’s seven titles.
It all sets up a fascinating postseason for quarterbacks. Here is my ranking of quarterback storylines entering the 2024 postseason.
14. Can Bo Nix lead a wild card round upset in Buffalo?
Nix started every game this season as the No. 12 overall pick of the Broncos. His 93.3 passer rating (29 TDs, 12 interceptions, 66.3% completions) was padded a bit by Sunday’s near-perfect rating against Kansas City’s defense, which was mostly backups.
He threw for 3,775 yards (12th) and rushed for 430 yards and four TDs in a solid rookie season as he overcame a rough start with four picks and no TDs in the two opening losses to Seattle and Pittsburgh.
Nix’s 10-7 rookie season included the win over the Mahomes-less Chiefs, which raised his shaky record against playoff teams to 2-5. He’ll lead the 19th-ranked Denver offense into Buffalo as big underdogs and will try to keep pace with likely MVP Josh Allen.
13. In a less impressive Year 2, will C.J. Stroud lead a playoff run for Texans?
The 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year as the second overall pick has been less effective in Year 2 for the 10-7 Texans who won the lousy AFC South. Stroud’s passer rating dipped from 100.8 last season to 87.0 (25th-ranked) with 12 interceptions compared to only five in his rookie year.
Stroud has been hurt by injuries to his wide receivers, with Nico Collins missing six games (hamstring) and losing Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to season-ending knee injuries. The pass protection has not been good, with 54 sacks allowed (third most). The offense ranks 19th in scoring, which presents a problem going against the No. 1 scoring defense in the Los Angeles Chargers in Saturday’s home wild card game.
Stroud led a resounding 45-14 wild card round home win over Cleveland last season with 274 passing yards and three TDs before getting thumped 34-10 in Baltimore. A win over the Chargers would set up a similarly difficult divisional-round matchup, most likely at Kansas City or Buffalo.
12. Will Justin Herbert overcome the 2022 playoff collapse against Jacksonville?
In the 2022 wild card round, Herbert and the Chargers built a 27-0 lead before losing 31-30 in the third-largest blown lead in playoff history. After an injury-plagued 2023 season in which the Chargers fell to 5-12, Herbert and the team have rebounded under new coach Jim Harbaugh to earn the five seed at 11-6.
The 2020 first-rounder has had his best season in passer rating (101.7 to rank seventh) and fewest interceptions (three, fewest among league starters).
Now, can he slay his playoff demons with a Saturday victory in Houston in his second-ever playoff game?
11. Can Baker Mayfield parlay his best regular season into a deep playoff run?
Mayfield has led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the NFC South title in each of his two seasons with the team after previous stops at Cleveland (as the 2018 first-overall pick), Carolina, and the Los Angeles Rams.
It’s been the best regular season of his career for Mayfield, with career highs in passing yards (4,500, ranking third in the league), passer rating (105.8, ranking fourth), TD passes (41, ranking second), and completion rate (71.4%, ranking fifth). But he has thrown 16 interceptions, which is tied for the most in the league.
Mayfield directs the No. 4 scoring offense despite losing his excellent starting wide receiver, Chris Godwin, after seven games.
Mayfield leads the third-seeded Bucs in a Sunday night home matchup with Washington in a rematch of the 37-20 season-opening win in which he threw for 289 yards and four TDs. He performed well in last year’s playoffs with 337 passing yards and three TDs in the 32-9 wild card win over the Philadelphia Eagles.
He followed it up with 349 passing yards and three touchdowns but two interceptions in the 31-23 divisional-round loss at Detroit. He’d like to take the Bucs at least one step further this year.
10. Can Jordan Love again find postseason success as a 7-seed?
The Packers go into their Sunday matchup at Philadelphia on a two-game losing streak to finish 11-6 although Love left the game in the first half with an elbow injury that shouldn’t keep him out this week.
Green Bay fell to the seventh seed as was the case last season when Love led a 48-32 wild card round upset of the second-seeded Cowboys in Dallas in a game the Pack led 27-0 in the first half. Love passed for 272 yards and three TDs that day and nearly led a divisional round upset in San Francisco before a late interception sealed the defeat.
With last year’s playoff success, Love and the Packers should be a confident team heading to Philly although Love will be without deep threat Christian Watson (torn ACL sustained last week).
The 2020 first-rounder began this season with 11 interceptions in the first eight games as he battled through a knee injury but he hasn’t thrown any picks in his last seven starts. He’s tossed 25 passes, and his 96.7 passer rating ranks 12th.
Love leads the No. 5 offense that is balanced by an excellent running game (1,329 yards and 15 TDs for Josh Jacobs) to take on the Eagles’ top-ranked defense in what should be an entertaining game.
9. Is Matthew Stafford ready to lead another big Rams playoff push?
Stafford is three years removed from winning Super Bowl LVI with the Rams in the first season after he was traded from the Lions, where he played 12 years as the 2009 top overall pick. He’s in the playoffs for the third time in the last four years with his second NFC West title and a home game on Monday night against the Vikings.
He comes in fresh after a week off when coach Sean McVay rested him and other key starters in Sunday’s loss to Seattle that dropped the Rams to the No. 4 seed. Stafford and the Rams finished 10-7 but had won five straight games before last week. He and the team rebounded from a 1-4 start when star receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were in and out of the lineup and beat the Vikings 30-20 in Week 8 on a Thursday night in L.A.
Stafford threw 20 TD passes and eight interceptions this season and his 93.7 passer rating ranked 15th for the Rams’ No. 15 offense. He’ll be looking to get off to a better start on Monday with an offense that didn’t score a first-quarter TD in his starts this season.
8. Can playoff-proven Russell Wilson rally the Steelers after poor end to regular season?
It’s not a good sign for Wilson and the Steelers that they enter Saturday night’s wild card game at Baltimore on a four-game losing streak, including a 17-point road loss three weeks ago to the Ravens.
After a solid start to his season with wins in six of his first seven games once he recovered from a calf injury and took over for Justin Fields in Week 7, the late season has not gone well, with Wilson averaging only 175 passing yards per game the last four weeks.
The former Super Bowl champion in Seattle produced 100-plus passer ratings in five of his first seven games this season. He has 16 TD passes, only five interceptions, a passer rating of 95.6 (ranking 14th), and 155 rushing yards with two TDs on the ground.
Wilson’s performance in the playoffs will be an important factor as the Steelers consider whether to re-sign him when his one-year, minimum salary deal in Pittsburgh (with Denver paying him $38 million guaranteed) is up in March.
7. Will Jalen Hurts lead the Eagles back to the Super Bowl?
Hurts led the Eagles to the Super Bowl two years ago in his MVP runner-up season. He’s been battling a concussion the past couple of weeks but is expected to face Green Bay in the wild card round on Sunday.
The 2023 season ended poorly for Hurts and the Eagles when a 10-1 start unraveled with losses in six of the last seven games, including the playoff blowout at Tampa Bay. His passer rating fell from 101.5 to 89.1 as he threw a career-high 15 interceptions. There were rumblings of a rift with his coach, Nick Sirianni.
He’s had to overcome reported in-house friction this season with top WR A.J. Brown yet rebounded to produce a 12-3 record in games he’s played for the NFC East champs. His numbers are up with a career-best 103.7 passer rating (18 TDs, only five picks and 68.7% completions—also a career high). The Tush Push is still working well with 14 rushing TDs for Hurts, and he has gained 630 yards on the ground, but we’ll see if the concussion limits his running this week if he indeed returns.
6. Will Jayden Daniels continue his clutch play in postseason?
The likely Offensive Rookie of the Year as the second overall pick by the Commanders has passed for 3,568 yards and 25 TDs with only nine interceptions. He has a 69% completion rate (sixth-best in the league) and his 100.1 passer rating ranks 11th. He also has rushed for 891 yards (second to Lamar Jackson among QBs) and six TDs.
Daniels has been remarkably clutch for a rookie quarterback. He’s led four game-winning drives with three TD passes on the final play from scrimmage, including his Week 8 Hail Mary that beat the Bears and the game-winner against the Eagles in Week 16.
Daniels enters his first postseason with five straight wins for the Commanders, who had the league’s biggest improvement with an 8-win jump from 4-13 to 12-5. Daniels has been the main force in the team’s rise, and he’ll try to lead the team to its first playoff win since 2005 on Sunday night at Tampa Bay.
5. Can Sam Darnold shake off a bad last game in Detroit as a first-time playoff QB?
In the Vikings’ Sunday night loss at Detroit with the NFC North title and No. 1 seed on the line, Darnold had a poor performance (18 of 41 for 166 yards with too many overthrows of open receivers and several times in the red zone).
It has put extra pressure on Darnold (the former Jets bust as a high first-rounder) heading into his first career playoff start at the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. He needs a good showing and a victory to further validate his career renaissance in Minnesota and set himself up for a big contract as his one-year deal expires.
Darnold’s overall regular season was outstanding. He led the surprising Vikings to a 14-3 record, the most wins by a quarterback in his first year with a team. He had 13 games with a 100-plus passer rating, one short of tying Aaron Rodgers’ record.
Under the guidance of coach Kevin O’Connell and with an excellent supporting cast led by all-pro receiver Justin Jefferson, Darnold has produced career-bests in passing yards-4,319 (fifth in the league), TD passes—35 (fifth) and passer rating—102.5--sixth).
4. Will Jared Goff lead the Lions to their first Super Bowl?
Goff led the Lions to a 15-2 record and the NFC’s top seed after their big Week 18 win over the Vikings. He directs the league’s top-scoring offense and has achieved career-bests this season in passer rating (111.8—second-ranked), TD passes (37—fourth), and completion percentage (72.4—second).
Goff was the Rams’ first overall pick in 2016 and led them to the Super Bowl in his third season. Things soured for him in Los Angeles, and he was considered an afterthought in the Matthew Stafford deal. He has reestablished himself as an elite QB with a great supporting cast in Detroit.
He played well during last year’s playoff run with a 103.3 passer rating in beating the Rams and Bucs before falling in San Francisco. With home-field advantage this year, the pressure is on Goff to lead the Lions to the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance and possible victory.
The Lions' injury-plagued defense played well in the win over the Vikings but was shaky prior to that (they were 20th ranked and allowed 48 points in their Week 15 loss to Buffalo). So Goff and the offense will probably have to carry the load this postseason.
3. Is Lamar Jackson poised for better postseason play to reach his first Super Bowl?
Jackson is a two-time MVP who just led the Ravens to their second straight AFC North title at 12-5 and the conference’s third seed. He goes into Saturday’s home wild card game against the Steelers on a hot streak with four straight wins and 12 TD passes, and only one interception during that closing stretch as the team scored 30-plus points in each game.
In the 2024 regular season, Jackson ranked first in passer rating (119.6), second in TD passes (41), and second in fewest interceptions by a starter (4). Those are all career bests for the Ravens’ first-round pick in 2018 (the last pick in that round). He also leads all QBs with 915 rushing yards (four TDs). The Baltimore offense ranked first this season with Jackson at the helm.
The knock on Jackson is his 2-4 playoff record with six interceptions and three lost fumbles. As the AFC’s top seed last season, he had an excellent game in the 34-10 divisional-round win over Houston, with 152 passing yards, two TD passes, and a 121.8 rating, plus he ran for 100 yards and two TDs. But he was sacked four times, had an interception, and lost a fumble with only 10 points for the offense in the 17-10 home AFC title game loss to the Chiefs.
Jackson is the only quarterback with multiple league MVP awards who hasn’t won a Super Bowl. He hopes to change that narrative this postseason, but it won’t be easy in the stacked AFC, with potential matchups against Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson this week.
2. Ditto for Josh Allen—can the likely MVP beat Mahomes and get to the big game?
In a season when the Bills were expected to be in transition with several starters lost due to salary cap concerns, Allen has driven the team to a 13-win season, a fifth straight AFC East title, and the No. 2 AFC seed in a likely MVP season for the 2018 first-round pick.
Allen ranks eighth in passer rating (101.4) with 28 TD passes. He’s been sacked only 14 times and has run for 531 yards and 12 TDs. After throwing 18 interceptions last season (second-most in the league), he’s protected the ball much better with only six picks.
Allen has five playoff wins but hasn’t reached the Super Bowl in his seven-year career. He and the Bills have been beaten in three of the last four postseasons by Mahomes and the Chiefs. This includes a 38-24 defeat in the 2020 AFC Championship and the 42-36 overtime thriller in the 2021 divisional round when Allen passed for 329 yards and four TDs and rushed for 69 yards to go toe-to-toe with Mahomes’ 378 passing yards, 3 TDs and 69 rushing yards and one TD.
Then it was most disappointing for Allen in their only playoff meeting in Buffalo, Mahomes and the Chiefs beat Allen and the Bills 27-24 in last year’s divisional round despite 258 total yards and no turnovers by Allen on a 14 degree wind chill day.
If the two teams and their star QBs meet this postseason, it will be in the AFC title game back in Kansas City where Allen would love to finally beat Mahomes and reach his first Super Bowl.
1. Is a Super Bowl three-peat coming for Patrick Mahomes?
Mahomes will enter the playoffs as the top AFC seed for the fifth time in his career as he chases his fourth Super Bowl title, which would tie him for second-most with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana behind Tom Brady’s seven wins in the big game. Mahomes' 15 playoff wins rank third all-time behind Brady’s 35 and Montana’s 16, and his .833 winning percentage is second to Bart Starr’s .900 among quarterbacks with at least six postseason victories.
But Mahomes is seeking something Brady and the others never accomplished—a Super Bowl three-peat after beating the Eagles and 49ers in the last two Super Bowls.
Mahomes' 2024 regular season stats were not overly impressive by his standards. His 93.5 passer rating ranked 16th, but his 15 wins were a career high. He finished strong with 11 TD passes and no interceptions in the last six games, all victories, before sitting out the last game at Denver with the top seed clinched.
The offense under the team’s 2017 first-round pick is peaking at the right time with better pass protection as the season progressed and the return from injuries of top back Isiah Pacheco and WR Marquise Brown along with the development of first-round WR Xavier Worthy.
Mahomes’ quest for the three-peat with so many top QBs chasing him is the biggest story to follow this postseason.
