Analysis
3/26/25
10 min read
2025 NFL Offeason QB Carouel: Predicting Where Will Top Names End Up Next
As the calendar turns to April with NFL offseason programs scheduled to begin in a few weeks, teams still looking for a starting or No. 2 quarterback want to close deals soon. Every coach wants their QBs in meetings that commence when the players report to team facilities.
Here are my predictions on how the game of remaining quarterback musical chairs will unfold in the coming weeks.
Aaron Rodgers to sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers
The four-time MVP from his Green Bay Packers career is coming off a lackluster two years with the New York Jets after the 2023 trade. Rodgers is not the same caliber quarterback he was in his last MVP season of 2021 in Green Bay.
He’s 15 years removed from winning the Super Bowl with the Packers over coach Mike Tomlin’s Steelers. He’ll turn 42 in December, was a losing quarterback in his final season with the Packers in 2022, missed the 2023 season with the Jets after tearing his Achilles in the opener, and went 5-12 as a Jets starter last season with his 90.5 passer rating the worst of his career.
Rodgers did play better in the last five games, with three 100+ passer ratings over that stretch, which included wins over Miami and Jacksonville and an overtime loss in Miami.
Rodgers always brings drama and egotism to his teams. Yet several teams—including the Steelers and Giants--have expressed interest in signing him after the Jets released him last month, and he became a free agent for the first time in his 20-year career. Rodgers preferred to sign with the Minnesota Vikings as a team seeking a veteran quarterback that offered the best supporting cast but the Vikings have indicated they’re not interested in signing him and muddying the waters for 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy.
Rodgers reportedly had a positive visit with the Steelers at their facility last week. Pittsburgh is seeking a starting quarterback after Justin Fields signed with the Jets, and Russell Wilson is signing with the Giants.
Rodgers surely sees Pittsburgh as a team with a good supporting cast of skill players on offense after they traded for Seattle wide receiver DK Metcalf to pair him with George Pickens. They also have a solid tight end in Pat Freiermuth.
Despite Steelers team leader Cameron Heyward taking a shot at Rodgers for slow playing his decision, I see the Steelers signed him to a one-year, $30 million contract with big incentives for playtime and playoff victories (which the Steelers haven’t had since 2016).
Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin believes he can effectively deal with Rodgers, which will convince Owner Art Rooney and GM Omar Khan to green-light this high-profile signing.
Kirk Cousins traded post-draft to the Cleveland Browns
The Browns traded for Kenny Pickett as free agency opened. Still, with Deshaun Watson likely out for the 2025 season after re-tearing his Achilles, Cleveland is not done re-tooling their quarterback position.
Watson has been a disaster for the Browns under his fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million deal, which also cost the team multiple high draft picks. He has almost certainly played his last down for the team. Pickett’s career record is 15-10 as a starter, but his passer rating is a lowly 79.3. The Steelers gave up on their 2022 first-round pick after two years, and he backed up Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia last season.
Pickett and Watson have a combined cap hit of $39.5 million this year. With only $8.5 million of cap room currently, the Browns will have to restructure some contracts or release players to free up the money to pursue a costly quarterback.
Cleveland could use the second overall pick on a quarterback, but I think a more likely path is for the Browns to not pick a quarterback in the first round but instead pick a top player at another position and make a post-draft trade for a 2026 late-round pick from Atlanta for Kirk Cousins, who has indicated he will not waive his no-trade clause and accept a trade until after the draft.
Cousins wants to avoid going to a team that picks a quarterback high in the first round as was the case for him last year with Michael Penix Jr.
Browns coach Kevin Stefanski worked well with Cousins as Vikings offensive coordinator in 2018, and in the playoff season of 2019 when Cousins was selected to the Pro Bowl. Cousins would surely accept a trade to Cleveland for a reunion with Stefanski on a Browns team that was a playoff team in 2023 before falling to 3-14 last season.
Similar to Wilson last year in Pittsburgh, Cleveland could get Cousins on a minimum one-year deal of $1.2 million. The Falcons owe him a guaranteed $27.5 million this year, with another $10 million guaranteed in 2026.
Cousins, 36, met with Atlanta owner Arthur Blank earlier this month to express his desire to be released or traded to a team where he can start. The four-time Pro Bowl quarterback in Washington and Minnesota had a dismal finish to his 2024 season with one TD, nine interceptions, and four losses over his last five starts before he was replaced by Penix.
Ryan Tannehill signs as Minnesota Vikings backup/bridge
The Vikings have had a wild offseason at the quarterback position as they did not step up via the franchise tag or a lucrative re-signing to retain their 2024 starter Sam Darnold who won 14 games before ending the season with two poor performances in losses to the Lions in the regular season finale and the Rams in the wild card round.
When Darnold left for Seattle, Minnesota hoped to re-sign Daniel Jones as the backup and possible bridge starter to 2024 first-rounder J.J. McCarthy, but Jones opted to sign with the Indianapolis Colts. The Vikings begged off on Rodgers, who would’ve brought too much drama and likely a higher price tag than the team desired for a vet quarterback while perhaps delaying McCarthy’s ascension to the starting role for up to two years.
The Vikings clearly want McCarthy to take the starting reins in the second year of his rookie contract. The team believes he’ll have success with an excellent supporting cast led by Coach of the Year Kevin O’Connell as a quarterback whisperer and skill position talent in all-pro Justin Jefferson, fellow wide receiver Jordan Addison, tight end T.J. Hockenson, re-signed running back Aaron Jones (along with Jordan Mason acquired from the 49ers in a trade) plus an upgraded offensive line after signing C Ryan Kelly and G Will Fries in free agency.
But the Vikings still need a quality veteran quarterback with starting experience in case McCarthy is not ready to play at a high level or gets hurt (he missed the entire 2024 regular season with a knee meniscus injury sustained in the preseason opener).
Enter 36-year-old Ryan Tannehill, the former Dolphins first-round pick who was a six-year starter in Miami (37-40 record) before being traded in 2019 to Tennessee. He was named NFL Comeback Player of the Year in a Pro Bowl season in 2019 when he was the league passer rating leader (117.5), leading the Titans to the AFC title game.
Tannehill was Tennessee’s starter for four more seasons but battled injuries his last two years before sitting out last season. His record in Tennessee was 39-24, and his career passer rating is 91.2.
Tannehill has talked with the Vikings about the possibility of signing with them. It sounds like he wants to play again, and he should look at the Vikings as a great potential destination for his career re-launch. I think it will happen as he sees an opportunity to play with a playoff team with an unproven quarterback coming off a major injury in McCarthy.
The Vikings have $24.2 million in cap room and probably want to sign Tannehill on a deal similar to Darnold’s last year, which was for one year and $10 million (plus the Vikings would offer lucrative incentives if Tannehill becomes the starter).
Russell Wilson signs with the New York Giants. (Official)
After dealing with a calf injury that kept him out of the first six games last season, Wilson won six of his first seven starts for the Steelers. But he struggled down the stretch with the offense averaging only 14 points per game in losing the last five games, including the wild card round loss in Baltimore.
The 36-year-old Wilson is a 10-time Pro Bowler who won the Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks in 2013. He had two down years in Denver after being traded there for a boatload of draft picks in 2022. He’s not the running threat he was at his peak in Seattle.
Wilson was a bargain signing at the league minimum ($1.21 million) last year, with the Broncos still on the hook for $38 million. Wilson is signing a one-year $10.5 million deal that can reach up to $21 million with incentives. He met with the Cleveland Browns and the Giants last week but left both teams before finally signing with New York.
The Giants recently signed Jameis Winston for only $8 million over two years, which did not preclude a Wilson signing. The G-Men also hold the No. 3 overall pick in the upcoming draft and could pick a quarterback, in which case Wilson would be a veteran bridge starter or backup.
Others potentially in the mix for backup roles
There are plenty of other quarterbacks with starting experience who may be signed in backup roles over the coming weeks. This list includes Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Lock, Desmond Ridder, and Case Keenum. Another free-agent quarterback who was a high draft pick is Trey Lance (San Francisco drafted him No. 3 overall in 2021, but he was a bust there, and he did not fare well in Dallas either after being traded there).
Several of these quarterbacks may have to wait until after the draft to be signed, or they may wind up without a team this season when the music stops.
