NFL Analysis
2/13/25
26 min read
NFL QB Power Rankings: Which Teams Have the Best (and Worst) Plans?
Having a quarterback plan — whether it be developing a young player or building around a veteran — is arguably the most important thing an NFL team needs to have every offseason. Hitting on a quarterback can be a franchise-changing move and being prepared to take advantage of that player is just as important.
With that in mind, we’re going to take a look at and rank the quarterback outlooks for all 32 teams. This will include quarterback quality, investment and how that impacts the rest of the roster, as well as what the plan looks like for the upcoming season.
TIER 1: ThIs Guy Makes Life Easier
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2024 review: We saw the pros and cons of leaning on Patrick Mahomes for everything. Mahomes still finished 10th in EPA per play during the regular season while the offense never felt fully cohesive. Still, that got the Chiefs to the Super Bowl. However, we saw the limits of that with the offensive line crumbling and Mahomes having one of the worst games of his career.
2025 outlook: This is still Patrick Mahomes, so there’s as big of a margin for error as there could be in trying to surround the quarterback with working pieces. However, after coming up short for the past few seasons—which again included two Super Bowls and another Super Bowl appearance—the Chiefs need some bigger hits on offseason additions.
2. Baltimore Ravens
2024 review: Lamar Jackson led the league in EPA per play and was named the first-team All-Pro at quarterback. Jackson was one of the league’s best pocket passers in the second year under Todd Monken and his rushing ability combined with the threat of Derrick Henry opened up the running game.
2025 outlook: Jackson’s continued development will allow the Ravens to have a top-tier offense whenever he’s on the field, and more could be added to the offense this offseason to continue opening up the passing game.
3. Buffalo Bills
2024 review: Josh Allen was the 2024 NFL MVP and deserved the honor for having the best season of his career in a year when the Bills were going through a soft rebuild on offense. Allen’s ability to play a more controlled style of offense while mixing in his wild throws untapped another level to his game.
2025 outlook: As with the two quarterbacks above, Allen’s presence alone sets a high floor, making it easier to build around him. The Bills might be more likely to keep course and allow the young players to develop at receiver, but as we saw with the Amari Cooper trade, Buffalo is not averse to taking a swing at a potential No. 1 if available.
4. Washington Commanders
2024 review: Jayden Daniels exceeded all expectations as the second overall pick. The Commanders had a clear development plan for him and added more to the offense each week, which resulted in Daniels finishing seventh in EPA per play and leading Washington to the NFC Championship Game.
2025 outlook: There’s nothing better than a star quarterback in the early years of his rookie deal. The Commanders now get to double down on that with around $75 million in cap space this offseason. Given how this offense was set up and the clear structure around it, it’s difficult to think about a potential sophomore slump. Daniels is likely to be in a better environment in Year 2 and his own play is a big reason for that.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
2024 review: Statistically, Joe Burrow had one of the best seasons of his career. He was eighth in EPA per play and second in success rate but one of the league’s worst defenses stopped the Bengals from winning enough games to make the playoffs.
2025 outlook: With Burrow paid and Ja’Marr Chase about to be, the Bengals might not have enough left to pay Tee Higgins. That could limit the offense while the defense still doesn’t have a path to immediately improve. It’s a uniquely Bengals dilemma when other teams are finding ways to pay multiple players near the top of the market but Burrow does set a baseline for success regardless of how Cincinnati approaches the rest of the roster.
TIER 2: Good quarterbacks, need help
6. Los Angeles Chargers
2024 review: Through an uneven season, Justin Herbert had some of his best games at the end of the year and found success with his legs. He finished 12th in EPA per play without much help on the offense and the Chargers made the playoffs.
2025 outlook: Herbert, as of now, sits just outside the quarterbacks of the tier above — setting enough of a floor but not completely able to lift up everything around him. But like the Bills, 2024 exceeded expectations in a soft reset and the Chargers did it with a coaching staff change. Having Herbert should speed up the process of building a more complete offense around him.
7. Green Bay Packers
2024 review: Jordan Love didn’t exactly improve on his hot second half of the 2023 season but he also didn’t completely fall off. While missing some games and playing through injuries, which Love admitted sapped some of his willingness and ability to run, he still finished 13th in EPA per play.
2025 outlook: Love got a big contract in the offseason but it’s paid in a way that doesn’t hinder the Packers from doing anything in free agency, if they choose to do so. Green Bay only has $32 million charged on the cap at quarterback for the 2025 season. With a full season of health, Love should look more like the 2023 version, making the throws he still showed he could make with fewer forced passes leading into turnovers.
8. Houston Texans
2024 review: Even if anyone suspected a sophomore slump, no one would have predicted C.J. Stroud would finish the season 28th in EPA per play. The ineffective early-down run game put too much pressure on Stroud throughout the season and he regressed in some of the areas that allowed him to overcome those shortcomings as a rookie.
2025 outlook: Bobby Slowik is out and Nick Caley is in as the team’s offensive coordinator. Caley comes from the Rams and will bring some of the traditional McCay offense offense with the Matthew Stafford adjustments. That should help Stroud, who still has plenty of talent entering his third season.
9. Philadelphia Eagles
2024 review: The Eagles won the Super Bowl. Jalen Hurts had his two best games of the season in the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl, helping to lead the Eagles to their second Lombardi Trophy. Hurts had an uneven season as a passer but often made enough plays to be supported by the talent around him and then played his best in the most important games.
2025 outlook: Because of how the Eagles manage their cap, there’s little worry about keeping this version of the team together while so many players are paid at the top of the market. With Kellen Moore leaving to be the head coach of the New Orleans Saints, the Eagles will have to hire a new offensive coordinator and figure out what they want this offense to look like but Hurts has proven he can be a catalyst for the offense. Unlike the other teams in this tier, the help is already on the roster and the Eagles just need to keep everything in place.
10. Dallas Cowboys
2024 review: Things did not go well. The Cowboys struggled when Dak Prescott was healthy and then a hamstring injury forced the quarterback to miss most of the season. The offense was stale, something Prescott was able to overcome with great success in 2023 but could not continue in 2024 as there were no meaningful additions to the roster.
2025 outlook: Prescott is still one of the league’s best quarterbacks, so we’ll start there. He’s currently set for the highest cap hit in the league at $89.9 million, but that will be restructured and lowered. However, it’s unclear how much cash spending that will open up, especially with Micah Parsons due for a deal on the defensive side of the ball. The offense is a question mark, with Brian Schottenhimer now taking over as head coach after spending the past two years as the offensive coordinator under Mike McCarthy.
TIER 3: Developing the young guys
11. New England Patriots
2024 review: After Drake Maye started the season behind Jacoby Brissett on the depth chart, he showcased his ability to lift the talent of those around him. The offensive line wasn’t as much of a problem and Maye ended up 15th in success rate, second-best among the rookie quarterbacks behind Daniels, despite being in the worst situation among that group of quarterbacks.
2025 outlook: Maye was already able to cover up some of the structure and talent issues during his rookie season and now the Patriots head into the offseason with the most cap space in the league. New England could fix the offensive line, bring in more receiving weapons, or both. There’s a clear path to build around a talented quarterback in his second season.
12. Chicago Bears
2024 review: The situation was that widely billed as the best supporting cast for a first overall pick turned out to be not that. Caleb Williams was often forced into creation mode because of poor pass-blocking and offensive structure. When he wasn’t forced, he bailed early expecting some to go wrong. Williams finished 31st in EPA per play.
2025 outlook: Put together Williams’s best eight games and they’re borderline top-10 quarterback play. He’s a talented passer who now should get the benefit of a better offensive system under new head coach Ben Johnson. If the floor can be raised, this will look closer to the situation we believed Williams would be in as a rookie.
13. Denver Broncos
2024 review: The Broncos figured out the best fit for an offense built around Bo Nix. It was heavy with play-action and screens that helped open up some shots down the field. It was enough to get Nix to finish 17th in EPA per play as a rookie — much better than most expectations but not nearly as good as his biggest defenders would suggest.
2025 outlook: With the question of how to structure the offense now handled, the Broncos will go into Year 2 with a better plan from the start. Much of that includes a plus offensive line — Nix was 27th in success rate under pressure — but Denver isn’t losing anyone there and has the financial flexibility to add more at receiver to continue opening up the offense.
TIER 4: Brock Purdy is about to get expensive
14. San Francisco 49ers
2024 review: Brock Purdy was still effective as the 49ers went through a ton of injuries throughout the 2024 season and Purdy took on a heavier load but the offense wasn’t otherworldly as it was in 2023. There was no Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk was lost for most of the season, and Deebo Samuel was not the same player.
2025 outlook: Performing without those players — or without them at 100 percent — could be foreshadowing with a new deal for Purdy on the horizon. There is no bigger leap than a seventh-round rookie deal to whatever Purdy is due on the market, even if it’s somewhere around the Baker Mayfield deal. Purdy showed he could do some of the lifting in the San Francisco offense, but it will be an entirely different build with the quarterback as the foundational piece instead of the players around him.
TIER 5: Trevor Lawrence
15. Jacksonville Jaguars
2024 review: The worst tendencies from the 2023 Jacksonville offense carried over to 2024. Trevor Lawrence was 24th in EPA per play and when he was on the field, it looked as if everything was as difficult as it could be to make the offense function. There were few easy buttons to help the quarterback out.
2025 outlook: With Liam Coen now at the helm, the Jaguars should have more of those easy buttons to lessen the load on Lawrence. That, in turn, should help raise the ceiling because the bigger throws will also be built into the offense instead of desperation heaves on third-and-long. While Lawrence was another quarterback who signed an extension near the top of the market last offseason, the Jaguars only have a $17 million cap hit for that deal for the upcoming season.
TIER 6: Expensive veterans
16. Detroit Lions
2024 review: Detroit fell short of their Super Bowl aspirations after the Washington defense found a way to pressure and disrupt Jared Goff. Goff finished the regular season second in EPA per play but was certainly flustered in that playoff loss, highlighting some of the limits to a good-but-not-great quarterback helped by ideal surroundings.
2025 outlook: Things will start to change a bit for the Lions in 2025 because obviously, not having Ben Johnson as the offensive coordinator could be an adjustment. But this could be the last open window for the Lions before other monetary realities sink in. Goff has a $32 million cap hit in 2025 but that bumps to $69 million in 2026. That’s similar for a number of players on this roster, adding more weight to the 2025 season.
17. Arizona Cardinals
2024 review: Kyler Murray was 14th in EPA per play and eighth in success rate with an inconsistent deep ball. The chemistry with Marvin Harrison Jr. was not immediately there but Murray was able to find success in the middle of the field throwing to Trey McBride.
2025 outlook: Murray and Harrison Jr. will get a full offseason to figure out how to get the best out of each other — hopefully with fewer static back-shoulder throws and more movement across the middle of the field. He’ll count for $43.3 million against the cap, but he just came off a season with a $49 million cap hit and if the team is more comfortable moving forward with Murray, that number could be lowered by converting some of his $37 million salary into a signing bonus.
18. Miami Dolphins
2024 review: Tua Tagovailoa missed another chunk of games with a concussion, but he was one of the most efficient quarterbacks when he was on the field. Tagovailoa ranked fourth in EPA per play and third in success rate during the regular season. However, the lingering concern around his head injuries was a bigger focus than his play.
2025 outlook: Without the support of a running game — the Dolphins ranked 31st in EPA per rush — it didn’t matter how efficient the passing offense was. With so much money tied into the wide receivers and the quarterback — Tagovailoa will jump from a $9.5 million cap hit in 2024 to $39 million in 2025 — the shortcut was to try to piece together an offensive line, especially on the interior. While this is an offense where the quarterback allows that type of shuffling, it has come up as an issue late in the season over the past two years and whenever the Dolphins need to shift to a more traditional dropback game.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2024 review: For the second season in a row, getting a good season out of Baker Mayfield got the Tampa Bay offensive coordinator a head coaching job. Mayfield finished sixth in EPA per play and played more within himself under Liam Coen — often getting the ball out quickly and avoiding his tendency to break the pocket early and try to make something happen.
2025 outlook: Josh Grizzard, the team’s passing game coordinator, was promoted to offensive coordinator, so while there will be another new coordinator for Mayfield, there won’t be an entirely new system implemented. Still, as Mayfield’s cap hit goes from $6.9 million to $35.8 million and Chris Godwin hits free agency, this could be a much different-looking offense.
20. Seattle Seahawks
2024 review: Geno Smith was another quarterback stifled by a poor offensive line and a bad run game. While Smith had some impressive individual throws and performances, he only ranked 21st in EPA per play and was pressured at one of the highest rates in the league.
2025 outlook: Now entering his age-35 season, Smith only has one year remaining on his contract at a $44.5 million cap hit. Seattle could extend Smith and keep him into his late 30s, they could just ride out the year to see what happens, or they could start planning the next step at the position. The hope is Smith won’t be under so much duress with new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.
21. Los Angeles Rams
2024 review: There were some really good Matthew Stafford games and some not-so-good but the Rams made the playoffs and Stafford finished 14th in EPA per play. He still has the arm to make unbelievable throws and was playing his best at the end of the season, ranked sixth in EPA per play from Week 11 on.
2025 outlook: There have been rumblings about a Stafford trade, as he just turned 37 years old and has two years left on his contract with only $4 million guaranteed remaining on it. Cooper Kupp has already announced the team will trade him, which is starting the shift to get younger and cheaper on that side of the ball as they did on defense.
TIER 7: Still unknown quality on rookie deals
22. Carolina Panthers
2024 review: The Panthers benched Bryce Young early in the season and got some decent play from Andy Dalton before a thumb injury from a car accident put Young back in the lineup. From his return, Young played the best football of his career and ranked 18th in EPA per play from Week 8 on.
2025 outlook: As it looked like the Panthers might have been ready to bail from Young, his play over the second half of the season got him another year as the Carolina starter. If he can continue the confidence — he was strong in the pocket and stopped taking sacks — and some of the younger receivers step up, the Panthers might have a decent foundation on offense.
23. Minnesota Vikings
2024 review: Sam Darnold played better than anyone could have imagined as the Vikings were one of the league’s best teams and had a shot at the No. 1 seed in the regular season finale. However, Darnold only ranked 16th in EPA per play, despite the ideal surroundings, but the final two games looked more like the old Darnold, impacted by pressure.
2025 outlook: The Vikings have a decision to make. Minnesota could just ride with J.J. McCarthy, the 11th overall pick from last year’s draft, but the status of his knee could make that risky for the start of the season. Should the team re-sign Darnold? Even a franchise tag would be an expensive option. But letting Darnold leave for nothing also seems less than ideal given the interest he’s likely to get as the top free-agent quarterback.
24. Atlanta Falcons
2024 review: Signing Kirk Cousins did not work as expected. He was 18th in EPA per play, but his mobility got worse throughout the season instead of better after his Achilles injury. Cousins was benched late in the year for eighth-overall pick Michael Penix, who will be the starter going forward.
2025 outlook: It’s now Penix’s team, but the Falcons will need to decide what to do with Cousins. Cousins still has a $40 million cap hit and $65 million in potential dead money. They could trade Cousins to open up $2.5 million but would need to find another team willing to take on his $27.5 million salary.
25. Indianapolis Colts
2024 review: Any development that was expected from Anthony Richardson did not come. He was benched in the middle of the season but his play was worse than his rookie season flashes when he was on the field. Richardson ranked 33rd in EPA per play and 35th in success rate. He continued to miss routine throws and the highlight throws did not hit at the same rate.
2025 outlook: The Colts will go into another season with Richardson but there will need to be vast improvements for this pairing to move on past this year. Outside of Richardson’s overall struggles, the personnel hasn’t completely meshed with the ideal way the quarterback wants to play. A lot of things need to be figured out while structuring this offense around Richardson in Year 3.
TIER 8: Who is playing quarterback?
26. New York Giants
2024 review: Daniel Jones was bad, got benched, and then released. Then things got worse. Tommy DeVito, Drew Lock, and Tim Boyle got playing time at quarterback for the Giants. The team as a whole ranked 31st in EPA per pass play.
2025 outlook: The Giants have no quarterbacks on the roster for 2025. With the third overall pick, they could be in range for Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders, either by hoping their preferred quarterback falls or by trading up to guarantee the pick. The Giants have also been rumored as a Stafford trade destination. The blank slate at the position could mean anything. It could also lead to a desperate scramble to get anything in the building at the position.
27. Tennessee Titans
2024 review: Betting on Will Levis didn’t work. Levis continually showed why some of his flaws may be fatal and his mistakes outweighed any highlights he had during the year. Levis ranked 36th of 36 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play and was replaced by Mason Rudolph at points during the season.
2025 outlook: Tennessee has the first overall pick, so they could have a path to a quarterback if they want it — but the question is whether the Titans feel like one of these quarterbacks is worth that pick and investment. If not, the Titans are in the same boat as the other teams searching for a quarterback without many available options.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers
2024 review: The Steelers bought low on Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. Neither found consistent success in the passing game as there wasn’t much of a structure around it. The only successful piece of the offense became Wilson's deep balls to George Pickens, but when those didn’t hit, the offense stalled.
2025 outlook: Both Fields and Wilson will be free agents, forcing Pittsburgh to find a new starting quarterback for 2025. The only quarterback on the roster right now is Skylar Thompson. Pittsburgh, with the 21st pick, doesn’t have a path in the draft but with $40 million in cap space could be a Darnold destination.
29. Las Vegas Raiders
2024 review: The offense was a mess. Gardner Minshew was one of the league’s least efficient quarterbacks when he was on the field. Aidan O’Connell was better 19th in EPA per play while Minshew was 35th — but he didn’t show enough to warrant him being an unquestioned starter going into the 2025 season, especially with a new coaching staff in the building.
2025 outlook: The Chip Kelly effect will be something to monitor. He got an insane season out of Nick Foles when he was with the Eagles and has evolved his offense since returning to the college game. Las Vegas has the sixth overall pick, so the Raiders could find themselves in the mix at the top of the draft but with $92.5 million in cap space, they could be a team willing to throw the bank at a player like Darnold in an attempt to catch up to the rest of the division.
30. New York Jets
2024 review: Any hope Jets fans had that Aaron Rodgers could return to his old form and lead the Jets to the playoffs was quickly wiped away. Rodgers finished 27th in EPA per play, looked uncomfortable in the pocket, and couldn’t hit enough big plays to make up for the down-to-down inconsistency.
2025 outlook: Rodgers won’t be back, so the Jets will be wandering into the quarterback abyss this offseason. Tyrod Taylor could stay as a bridge option. Since it’s the Jets, a desperation reunion with Darnold seems unlikely, which means the team will have to get creative to fill the position this offseason.
Tier 9: Just keep restructuring
31. New Orleans Saints
2024 review: The Saints started off as the hottest team in the league and then fizzled just as quickly. Derek Carr was quietly 11th in EPA per play when he was on the field, but only played 10 games. Spencer Rattler looked overmatched at times when he was on the field, placing hesitation on the thought that he could be the potential replacement.
2025 outlook: We’ll see what new head coach Kellen Moore thinks of the situation. Carr turns 34 at the end of March and has a $51.5 million cap hit with $10 million in guaranteed salary. He could be traded to free up $11 million in cap space but holding onto him would likely mean another restructure, pushing more money into the future for a 35-year-old quarterback in 2026.
32. Cleveland Browns
2024 review: You saw.
2025 outlook: What do the Browns do with Deshaun Watson? With the Achilles injury, it’s likely he never sees the field again but there is still so much money tied into the quarterback. He has a $76 million cap hit for 2025. The Browns could continue restructuring that deal, eventually getting far enough down the line that cutting bait won’t be as tenuous. That’s the most likely option because the Browns are currently $30 million over the cap. That still leaves the Browns with a massive investment at the position and no actual answer for it.
