Betting
8/9/23
6 min read
NFL Record Predictions for Every NFC North Team Entering 2023 Preseason
With a full slate of preseason games just days away, it’s time to take an updated look at each team’s season-long prospects. In the coming days, we’ll provide record predictions for each NFL team, continuing with the NFC North.
Listen to NFL insider Ari Meirov discuss fantasy-relevant news for each NFC team with Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds.
Other Division Betting Predictions
AFC: East | South | North | West
NFC North Record Predictions
Chicago Bears
2022 Record: 3-14
2023 Win Total: 7.5
Division Odds: +400
Super Bowl Odds: +5000
No team upgraded their roster more than the Chicago Bears this offseason. On offense, the Bears significantly improved QB Justin Fields’ supporting cast, giving him the tools to take a step forward as a passer. On defense, Chicago added several impact players to its front seven, but they still lack a difference-making pass rush.
How Chicago Exceeds Expectations
If the Bears are going to improve significantly this season, that success will be driven by their offense. Assuming Fields can pair his dynamic athleticism with a league-average passing attack, Chicago could have a top-10 offense. If that happens and the Bears can piece together a fringe top-20 defense, Chicago has a realistic path to playoff contention.
How Chicago Fails to Meet Expectations
If Fields continues to be an inconsistent passer, Chicago will once again be a run-centric, one-dimensional offense. It’s challenging to win NFL games with that style when you have a mediocre defense. The Bears have impact players in their secondary and one of the better linebacker duos in the league in Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards.
However, even with the addition of edge Yannick Ngakoue, Chicago has one of the weaker pass rushes in the league. If Chicago doesn’t approach its ceiling on offense, it’s hard to envision their defense picking up enough slack.
Record Prediction: 8-9
>> READ: Chicago Bears Fantasy Team Preview
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions2022 Record: 9-8
2023 Win Total: 9.5
Division Odds: +140
Super Bowl Odds: +2200
After a solid second half last season, they are expected to contend for the first time in a while.
How Detroit Exceeds Expectations
The Detroit Lions are well coached with a premium offensive line, a talented skill group and a quality quarterback in Jared Goff. If the Lions continue their ascent, their offense will drive their success.
The Lions improved their secondary this offseason, but overall, this is more of a scrappy defense with one true headliner in second-year edge Aidan Hutchinson. Like the Bears, the Lions don’t need a top-10 defense to exceed expectations, but they need to be better than they were last year.
How Detroit Fails to Meet Expectations
The Lions’ offense could rely heavily on their running backs and Amon-Ra St. Brown to start the season. An injury to St. Brown would significantly reduce what Detroit can do through the air.
Outside of injuries to key players on offense, it would be a surprise if the Lions finished the year significantly below their win total.
Record Prediction: 10-7
>> READ: Detroit Lions Fantasy Team Preview
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers2022 Record: 8-9
2023 Win Total: 7.5
Division Odds: +400
Super Bowl Odds: +6500
The Green Bay Packers have enjoyed first ballot Hall of Fame level quarterback play since 1994 when Brett Favre began to hit his stride. No matter how optimistic you are about former first-round pick Jordan Love, quarterback play is an unknown in Green Bay for the first time in nearly 30 years.
The transition from Aaron Rodgers to Love will determine the ceiling and stability of the 2023 Packers.
How Green Bay Exceeds Expectations
From Love to the Packers’ young pass catchers, it’s hard to envision a consistent, high-performing offense in Green Bay this season. The Packers have enough talent on defense to be a top-five unit, but they underachieved last season, ranking 17th in points allowed.
If the Packers are going to beat their win total, their talented defense needs to play better. The Packers’ first five games mark their easiest stretch on the schedule, making a strong start essential for this volatile team.
How Green Bay Fails to Meet Expectations
Green Bay is transitioning from four-time MVP winner Rodgers to Love, who has only thrown 83 passes in three years as a pro. Even if Love plays well, he’s not Rodgers.
Ultimately, Green Bay is likelier to finish as a bottom-10 offense than a top-10 unit. If the Packers’ defense underachieves like it did last season, Green Bay could end up with a top-10 pick in next year’s draft.
Record Prediction: 5-12
>> READ: Green Bay Packers Fantasy Team Preview
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings2022 Record: 13-4
2023 Win Total: 8.5
Division Odds: +275
Super Bowl Odds: +3500
The Minnesota Vikings are one of the tougher teams to solve. On one hand, Minnesota was 11-0 in one-score games last season and 9-0 in games it trailed in the second half. The Vikings are one of the most obvious negative regression candidates in recent memory.
On the other hand, Minnesota’s offense is one of the most talented groups in the league. Plus, new defensive coordinator Brian Flores can be a difference-maker for the defense.
How Minnesota Exceeds Expectations
The Vikings' offense doesn’t need to improve for Minnesota to exceed expectations; it just needs to maintain its play quality. That said, the Vikings have T.J. Hockenson for a whole season and brought in Jordan Addison in the draft's first round. Kirk Cousins' already strong passing attack could realistically improve this season.
Minnesota’s defense was destroyed through the air last season. The Vikings still have a vulnerable secondary, and their front four — their defense’s strength — has undergone several personnel changes.
If Minnesota’s defense improves, it’s likely through Flores providing strategic advantages.
How Minnesota Fails to Meet Expectations
Outside of injuries to cornerstone players, the Vikings should have a high-performing offense. Cousins has a lot of detractors, but at the end of the day, he’s firmly entrenched as a top-12 quarterback in the league.
We already know Minnesota’s defense could be a liability again, but we haven’t discussed the schedule. Minnesota plays eight games against teams with a 9.5 or greater win total. If you’re looking for how the Vikings will suffer from negative regression, their defense and schedule are the most likely factors.
Record Prediction: 8-9
>> READ: Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Team Preview
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