Betting
11/12/22
7 min read
NFL Week 10 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions For Every Game
Week 10 is injury week, as several games have been completely transformed by injuries. As of this writing, we still don’t know if Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, or Kyler Murray will be active this week. Below you’ll find a link to each of my betting previews along with a summary for each game. Sunday night's game is usually up sometime Saturday evening, while the Monday night matchup will be up by Sunday.
Seahawks vs. Buccaneers (Munich)
Opening Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
Opening Game Total: 44.5
Opening Team Totals: Buccaneers (23.5), Seahawks (21)
Weather: Indoors
This is an interesting game between two teams that are currently sitting on top of their respective divisions. The Seahawks have a well-balanced offense and a scrappy defense that often exceeds expectations. The Buccaneers have gotten off to a slow start, but they are coming off a win against the Rams last week and this roster has the potential to beat you in a number of ways. One advantage for the Buccaneers is that Seattle has a below-average front, which is a major positive for a Tampa Bay line that’s marched out reserves at left guard and center all year. I lean towards the Bucs here ATS, but I have not bet this game directly at this point.
Browns at Dolphins
Opening Spread: Dolphins -4
Opening Game Total: 48.5
Opening Team Totals: Dolphins (26.25), Browns (22.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
Miami has an elite offense that can burn you in the air or on the ground. The Browns are coming off their bye and are in more desperate need of a win here. The Browns have been an unexpected over partner this year, going 6-1-1 on overs this season. I will consider Miami in ATS tournaments this weekend, but I’m going to get exposure to this game in DFS from a few different angles.
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Lions at Bears
Opening Spread: Bears -3
Opening Game Total: 48.5
Opening Team Totals: Bears (25.75), Lions (22.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Lions have a top-five-level offensive line, which gives them a major advantage against the Bears front in both phases. Amon-Ra St. Brown has a major opportunity in this contest, as D.J. Chark and Josh Reynolds are out while T.J. Hockenson is now in Minnesota. Detroit’s offense likely runs through St. Brown and their running back duo. I’m not going to play this game ATS, but I’m going to get exposure to both offenses in this game in DFS, where Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney will be in my player pool. I also bet on Darnell Mooney’s over 3.5 receptions and I like his yards receiving over right around 41 yards, which Josh Larky took on our Player Prop Happy Hour show.
Texans at Giants
Opening Spread: Giants -6.5
Opening Game Total: 38.5
Opening Team Totals: Giants (22.5), Texans (16)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
I bet Houston early in the week as I thought Giants -6.5 was too high of a line. That line is now Giants -4.5, so win or lose that bet gets some significant closing line value. Both Saquon Barkley and Dameon Pierce are in high-ceiling spots for fantasy purposes.
Jaguars at Chiefs
Opening Spread: Chiefs -9.5
Opening Game Total: 49.5
Opening Team Totals: Chiefs (29.5), Jaguars (20)
Weather: Outdoors, no concerns
I am considering the Jaguars +9.5 as they have a number of interesting matchups in this contest that I break down in the above article. I also took Christian Kirk’s yards receiving over that was right around 60 yards. This contest has the highest game total on the slate, which will make it popular in DFS. Even though I’m leaning towards Jacksonville covering in this contest, I’m strongly considering the Chiefs in my main tournament entry.
Saints at Steelers
Opening Spread: Steelers +2.5
Opening Game Total: 41
Opening Team Totals: Steelers (19.25), Saints (21.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The return of T.J. Watt paired with injuries along the Saints' offensive line has me leaning toward the Steelers in this contest. Jarvis Landry's props are not yet listed, but if and when they open, I’m interested in Landry’s over-receptions line. If it opens at 3.5 or less, I’m auto-betting the over if it has reasonable juice.
Broncos at Titans
Opening Spread: Titans -3
Opening Game Total: 39
Opening Team Totals: Titans (21), Broncos (18)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
Impactful injuries are a major storyline this week. In this contest half of the Titans' defense has been ruled out. Both teams' pass rushes have been significantly reduced due to injuries. This game total has been flying up and down throughout the week, currently sitting back at its original spot at 39-points. Russell Wilson coming off the bye and playing his best game of the season against the Titans injury-ravaged defense is a potential outcome here. The Titans' litany of injuries has me considering the Broncos against the spread this week.
Vikings at Bills
Opening Spread: Bills -7.5
Opening Game Total: 48
Opening Team Totals: Bills (27.75), Vikings (20.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
We still don’t have any clarity on who will start at quarterback for Buffalo. The line opened around Bills -7.5, and it dipped down to Bills -3 due to the uncertain status of Josh Allen. I’m going to stay away from this one, but I discuss a number of paths in this contest in the linked article.
Colts at Raiders
Opening Spread: Raiders -6
Opening Game Total: 42.5
Opening Team Totals: Raiders (24.25), Colts (18.25)
Weather: Dome
I like this contest from a sports betting perspective because it has a few likely paths. I discuss those in the above article, as well as why I’m leaning toward the Raiders in this spot.
Cardinals at Rams
Opening Spread: Rams -3
Opening Game Total: 43.5
Opening Team Totals: Rams (23.25), Cardinals (20.25)
Weather: Hybrid stadium, no weather concerns
Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford still have uncertain injury statuses. If Stafford can go, I’m taking the Rams here as the Cardinals' interior offensive line has been ravaged by injuries. I’m always interested in betting on the great Aaron Donald in that kind of circumstance. If Stafford sits, I’m going to stay away from this game ATS.
Cowboys at Packers
Opening Spread: Packers +5
Opening Game Total: 43
Opening Team Totals: Packers (19), Cowboys (24)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Cowboys are well equipped to handle Green Bay in this contest with their high-end pass rush and highly capable run game. While Green Bay’s defense has real problems stopping the run this year, the loss of Rashan Gary reduces their top-10-level pass rush. The Packers are also down their second-best cornerback in Eric Stokes. If you’re betting on Green Bay, you’re either betting on Dallas' futility or Aaron Rodgers essentially carrying this team, which he’s been unable to do to this point this year.
SNF: Chargers at 49ers
The 49ers have moved up to a -7.5 favorite despite difference-making pass rusher Arik Armstead miss this contest. The Chargers are still down Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Rashawn Slater, J.C. Jackson, and Joey Bosa. Los Angeles is a much different team than they were on opening day. If you’re betting on the Chargers, you are primarily betting on Justin Herbert, while San Francisco has several paths to victory. The 49ers are the other team I’m strongly considering in my main survivor pool entry this week.
MNF: Commanders at Eagles
The Eagles are -10.5-point favorites against rival Washington because Philadelphia is better at every single position group on offense and defense. I can’t take the Eagles in my main survivor pool as I used them last week against Houston, but they are a strong option here. I’ll dive into this game more once this matchup article goes live.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 30-15
Props 2022: 31-16
WATCH MORE: Covering 5 Games From DFS Perspective
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