Analysis
11/16/20
6 min min read
NFL Week 10 Statistical Review
Here's a statistical breakdown of three NFL key games from Sunday:
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Story of Two Halves
First Half
- The Buccaneers know they are in good hands when Tom Brady is at the helm against a division opponent. Brady has never gone .500 or below against divisional opponents when in the AFC East (Fox)
- The game started off poorly for both teams with a 3-and-out for the Panthers and a Buccaneers turnover on their second offensive play of the game
- From there, Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater was highly efficient, completing his first 13 passes before his first incompletion with 4 minutes left in the second quarter. This was the best start of Bridgewater's career in terms of consecutive completions
- This included converting on a fourth-down attempt with 10 minutes left in the first quarter (which ultimately led to a TD)
- Converting on fourth down has been a strength for the Panthers after going 3-for-3 on that down in Week 9
- Brady and the Buccaneers got back on track to start this game after their poor play last week and the poor opening drive
- Brady is 7-1 following a loss of 20-plus points (19 TDs and 3 INTs in those games), per FOX
- The Bucs were able to keep pace with the Panthers, including a Mike Evans TD just prior to halftime
- It was Evans; NFL-best seventh red-zone TD of the season. Evans joins Rob Gronkowski (2011, 2012) and Randy Moss (2007) as the only players to catch 7-plus red-zone TDs from Tom Brady in the first 10 games of a season (NFL Research)
Second Half
- In the second half, it was all Buccaneers (outscoring the Panthers 29-6
- They scored 12 straight points after halftime including a 98-yard TD run from Ronald Jones (longest TD run in TB history)
- After the opening drive fumble, the Buccaneers offense couldn’t be stopped, scoring on their next six offensive drives (TD, FG, TD, FG, TD, FG)
- Despite their ability to score, the Buccaneers could’ve been even more efficient (4 out of 8 RZ trips ended in TDs)
- The second half -- and specifically the third quarter -- remains kryptonite for the Panthers. They’ve scored zero third-quarter points in two straight games, per FOX
- The lack of efficiency for the Panthers is surprising as they have such a large array of weapons for Bridgewater
- Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel have the most combined yards of any team trio in the NFL right now (FOX)
Bills vs. Cardinals
Josh Allen vs. Kyler Murray
First Half
- The first half started off strong for Josh Allen while Kyler Murray struggled. Allen caught a TD from WR Isaiah McKenzie (second TD reception of his career)
- According to Next Gen Stats, Allen had a 64.9% chance of scoring a TD with three lead blockers. This is the second-highest TD probability of a reception behind the LOS outside the 15-yard line this season, per Next Gen Stats
- The Bills featured a pass heavy offense to open the game (first two drives) -- 10 pass attempts for 91 yards and 6 rushes for 3 yards
- Kyler Murray struggled in the first 1.5 quarters, scoring only 6 points. Murray’s game early didn’t feature his electric play with his legs (four rushes for 5 yards with 1 minute left in the second quarter)
- Despite trying to get DeAndre Hopkins involved early (5 targets on first two drives), Murray couldn’t push the ball down the field
Second Half
- The Bills’ second TD came from Josh Allen to Cole Beasley in the third quarter. With this passing TD, Allen became the third QB in NFL history with 20-plus passing TDs and 5-plus rushing TDs in consecutive seasons (joining Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson), per NFL Research. This put the Bills up 23-6
- Then Kyler Murray was able to get his legs involved in the game. After his 6 rushes for 19 yards in the first half, Murray had 5 rushes for 42 yards and 2 TDs in the second half
- He scored on a 1-yard rushing TD in the third quarter that made him the first QB in the Super Bowl era to have a rushing TD in five straight games (per Scott Hanson)
- With his second rushing TD, Murray became the first QB with 10 rushing TDs in a season since Cam Newton in 2011
- Murray also joined Cam Newton as the only QB in NFL history with 6,000-plus passing yards and 1,00-plus rushing yards in their first 25 career games, per NFL Research
- After Allen hit Stefon Diggs with a go-ahead score in the final minute, the Cardinals got the ball back with 34 seconds left. They worked their way to the 43-yard line and called a timeout with 11 seconds left.
- At this point, they had a 3.2% win percentage
- Under pressure, Murray scrambled behind the LOS to keep the play alive, threw a high arching Hail Mary to DeAndre Hopkins in triple coverage and Hopkins came down with the catch for the win
- This was the first Hail Mary TD to win a game since 2015 (Packers)
- This was Murray’s fifth career game-winning drive (CBS)
Patriots vs. Ravens
Patriots Play Up to Competition
Offense
- The Patriots are an enigma of a team; they have played horribly and well throughout this season
- The game started off well for the Patriots on offense and they didn’t stop
- The Ravens came out with the idea of a heavy dose of blitzes, with six of Newton's first eight dropbacks featuring a blitz
- Newton was calm and reacted well, going 4-for-5 for 40 yards and a TD against the blitz early
- The Patriots targeted more players in this game than they have in recent weeks, signified by a 20-yard connection to TE Ryan Izzo that set up the first TD
- Patriots TEs entered the game with 16 total targets -- nine fewer than any other team --and they didn’t get targeted at all last week against the Jets (according to Mike Reiss)
- Izzo’s reception set up a Burkhead TD, which was Cam Newton's first passing TD since Week 3. It was the longest drought from a New England QB with at least four consecutive starts since Jim Plunkett in 1975 (NFL.com)
- The Ravens came into the week with the eighth-best rushing defense, allowing only 101.8 rushing yards/game while having the fourth-ranked rushing offense (159.6 yards/game), however:
- The Patriots rushed for 173 yards (48 more than the Ravens) behind second-year RB Damien Harris’s 121 yards on 21 carries
- The 121 rushing yard is the most the Ravens have allowed this season
- This was Harris’s third 100-yard rushing game this season. The only players with more are Derrick Henry (5), Dalvin Cook (4) and Ronald Jones (4), per ESPN Stats and Info
- Harris was exceptional when facing a stacked box. According to Next Gen Stats, he had nine carries for 60 yards with 8-plus defenders in the box
Defense
- The Patriots committed to limiting Lamar Jackson the same way the rest of the league has so far this season, but playing zone coverage early/often and limiting scoring in the red zone
- The Patriots corps of backup/rookie LBs played well in the low red zone on the FG drive by the Ravens in the second quarter
- The defense also was able to win the turnover battle, which is crucial for the current construct of this Patriots roster. They are now 4-0 when winning the turnover battle – and 0-5 when they lose the turnover battle.
- One of the key turnovers was J.C. Jackson’s INT, which marks his fifth straight game with an INT (first NFL player since 2014). He now leads the NFL in INTs (6) this season. Jackson has 14 INTs since joining the league in 2018 -- most in the NFL in that span
- Amog active players, he has the third-most INTs in a player’s first 38 career games, trailing only Marcus Peters and Richard Sherman
Other Key Stats
- Aaron Donald has 9 sacks this season, which is the most in the NFL
- The last 2 times the Steelers were the last undefeated team, they made it to the Super Bowl both times (they are currently 9-0 and the only team without a loss)
- Tua Tagovailoa is 3-0 as an NFL starter with 5 TDs and 0 INTs in three games. The Dolphins are 6-3, in the playoff hunt and currently in position to have the have the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 draft (from the Texans in the Laremy Tunsil trade)
- Aaron Rodgers had his 25th career game with 1-plus pass TD and 1-plus rush TD. That is the third-most such games by any player in the Super Bowl era, trailing Cam Newton (40) and Hall of Famer Steve Young (31) (NFL Research)
- The NFC East has not had a repeat winner since 2001-2004
- The Eagles had zero third-down conversations on nine third-down attempts
