Analysis
11/19/22
7 min read
NFL Week 11 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Commanders vs. Texans
Commanders (5-5) at Texans (1-7-1)
Opening Spread: Texans +2.5
Opening Game Total: 40.5
Opening Team Totals: Texans (19), Commanders (21.5)
Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened as Texans +2.5.
- This line has moved to Texans +3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Texans +3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Texans +3.5.
- This total opened at 40.5 points.
- This total remains at 40.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Texans: Questionable: Edge Rasheem Green, CB Derek Stingley Jr.
Commanders: Questionable: WR Curtis Samuel, TE Logan Thomas, C Tyler Larsen, Edge Chase Young, LB David Mayo, LB Cole Holcomb.
The Texans Offense vs. Commanders Defense
This is an interesting trench matchup, as the Texans have a talented but inconsistent offensive line. Commanders Edge Chase Young may not play this week, but he’s close. Regardless, Washington has a fringe top-ten defensive line with one of the league’s best interior duos. Washington’s front has a slight advantage from a macro sense but a considerable edge in the interior.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Texans are 4-4-1 against the spread this season.
- The Texans are 4-5 on overs this season.
- Davis Mills is 10-11-1 against the spread in his career.
- Davis Mills is 11-11 on overs in his career.
- Lovie Smith is 86-90-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Lovie Smith is 86-96-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Texans Offense
- The Texans are scoring 16.6 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Houston is 23rd in the league in yards passing per game and 26th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Dameon Pierce’s 772 yards rushing is fifth in the league. Pierce is 34th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Brandin Cooks has at least five targets in every game he’s played this season. The two times Cooks has broken double-digit targets came in the season's first two weeks. Cooks has not had a 100-yard game this season.
- Nico Collins has a 16.7% target share and is coming off a ten-target game against the Giants last week.
- Chris Moore has a 10.2% target share.
- Jordan Akins, OJ Howard, and Brevin Jordan each have between 85 and 95 routes run this year.
- Per TruMedia, Brandin Cooks has played 279 snaps on the perimeter and 104 snaps in the slot.
- Nico Collins has played 263 snaps on the perimeter and 19 in the slot.
- Chris Moore has played 61 snaps on the perimeter and 212 in the slot.
Commanders Defense
- The Commanders have allowed 21.3 points per game, which is 15th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Commanders have allowed the 13th-fewest yards rushing per game and the ninth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Washington has given up the fifth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Washington has given up the third-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Commanders have allowed the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Commanders Offense vs. the Texans Defense
Washington has a below-average offensive line. Houston has a bottom-tier defensive front. Neither side has a notable advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Commanders are 5-4-1 against the spread this season.
- The Commanders are 4-6 on overs this season.
- Taylor Heinicke is 11-16-1 against the spread in his career.
- Taylor Heinicke is 10-18 on overs in his career.
- Ron Rivera is 94-84-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Ron Rivera is 91-90-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Commanders Offense
- The Commanders are scoring 19.1 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- Washington is 21st in the league in yards passing per game and 20th in yards rushing.
- Washington is 3-1 with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback.
- Per the Edge, against the Eagles last week, Brian Robinson had 26 carries, while Antonio Gibson had 14 carries and three targets. J.D. McKissic was out with an injury last week.
- In the four games Taylor Heinicke has played, Terry McLaurin has at least eight targets in all of them, and he’s breached 100 yards receiving twice during this stretch.
- Since Heinicke took over, Curtis Samuel has had four targets in three games and eight in the other.
- After missing a month, Logan Thomas has seven targets over the last two games.
- Per TruMedia, Logan Thomas has played 115 snaps as an inline tight end, 39 on the perimeter, and 172 in the slot.
Texans Defense
- The Texans have allowed 23 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Texans have allowed the most yards rushing per game and the twelfth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Houston has given up the ninth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Texans have allowed the 14th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Texans have allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This is What You’re Betting On in Texans vs. Commanders
A bet on the Texans is a bet on a one-win team that has lost four games in a row. Two of those four losses came by more than one score. Davis Mills has breached 300 yards passing twice during that four-game stretch, and Dameon Pierce has been phenomenal this year. There’s a path to Houston’s offense having a strong outing this week. The Texans’ defense has given up 24 or more points in three of their last four losses.
If you’re betting on Houston in this spot, you likely need the Texans' defense to keep the Commanders in the low 20s. Your biggest concern with a Texans bet is a simple one: you are betting on the least successful team in the league with one of the NFL’s worst rosters. A Texans bet is built more on a Washington letdown after they beat the undefeated Eagles than on any talent or strategic advantage Houston has.
A bet on Washington is a bet on a suddenly hot Commanders team that’s won four of their last five games. Their one loss during that stretch was a three-point defeat to 8-1 Minnesota. The Commanders are 3-1 since Taylor Heinicke took over for an injured Carson Wentz. If you’re betting on Washington this week, you’re expecting the Commanders’ offense to at least meet expectations against a beatable Texans defense.
A bet on Washington can also be a bet on the Commanders talented defensive front. The Commanders' defensive tackle duo of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne is one of the very best interior duos in the league. That group has the ability to dominate this game. Your biggest concern as a Commanders’ bettor is that this is a classic letdown spot. This is Washington’s second road game in a row, and they just knocked off the undefeated Eagles in Philadelphia. Keep in mind that Washington can win this game by three points and still lose against the spread.
Commanders vs. Texans Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Dameon Pierce is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will have some exposure to both teams in winner pools, and I will treat this game as a true coinflip in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: My sports bettor instinct gravitates toward the Texans in this contest, but I have no confidence in Houston. I expect to pass on this game due to those conditions.
Survivor Pool: Washington would be an aggressive survivor pool option this week that I’d avoid if possible.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 32-18
Props 2022: 34-18
WATCH MORE: Heinicke Gives Commanders Hope
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