Betting
11/26/22
11 min read
NFL Week 12 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions For Every Game
With Thanksgiving Day now in the books, we have a full slate of NFL action to break down for betting purposes. As always I write up every game, every week, where you’ll find active links to each of my betting previews along with a summary for each game. Given the mid-week holiday, some main slate game previews won’t be in until Saturday afternoon this week.
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Bengals (6-4) at Titans (7-3)
- Opening Spread: Titans +1.5
- Opening Game Total: 42.5
- Opening Team Totals: Titans (20.5), Bengals (22)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Titans +1.5.
- This line has moved up to Titans +2.5.
- This total opened at 42.5 points.
- This total remains at 42.5 points.
The Bottom Line
If you’re taking a side in this game each team has a significant advantage that you can reasonably back. On the Titans' side, you have their pass rush against the Bengals' improving, but still unreliable, offensive line. Titans’ defensive lineman Denico Autry is out while fellow DL Jeffery Simmons remains on the injury report. If Simmons misses this contest that advantage becomes more of a draw.
On the Bengals' side, you have Joe Burrow’s passing attack against the Titans' very beatable secondary. Joe Mixon is out for Cincinnati, but Ja’Marr Chase has a chance to return to action. If Chase is active, expect him to be on a pitch count. I have a slight lean toward the Bengals' side here, but I have not bet on this game directly.
Buccaneers (5-5) at Browns (3-7)
- Opening Spread: Browns +3
- Opening Game Total: 44
- Opening Team Totals: Browns (20.5), Buccaneers (23.5)
- Weather: Outdoors, rain and notable wind expected
The Line Report
- This line opened as Browns +3.
- This line has moved to Browns +3.5.
- This total opened at 44 points.
- This total has moved slightly down to 43.5 points.
The Bottom Line
Weather concerns have been greatly reduced in this contest, as 10-15 mph sustained winds with rain are now expected as opposed to the original forecast of 20+ sustained winds with 30 mph gusts. Here we get Tom Brady’s somewhat surging Buccaneers coming off their bye against Jacoby Brissett making his final start for Cleveland before the return of Deshaun Watson. I don’t have any kind of meaningful lean in this contest, but Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette is trending towards being out this week, which means rookie Rachaad White could see a massive workload in this contest.
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Texans (1-8-1) at Dolphins (7-3)
- Opening Spread: Dolphins -12
- Opening Game Total: 46
- Opening Team Totals: Dolphins (29), Texans (17)
- Weather: Outdoors, no concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Dolphins -12.
- Dolphins' line has moved up to -14.
- This total opened at 46 and moved down slightly to 45.5.
The Bottom Line
Miami is coming off its bye while the Texans are pivoting to Kyle Allen at quarterback. Houston will be without No. 3 overall pick Derek Stingley in this one, which increases my already considerable enthusiasm for Miami’s ability to just blow the doors off Houston in every phase. While roughly 14 points is a lot to lay in an NFL game, I’ve already bet the Dolphins directly, and I’m going to take them in my main ATS tournament entry at -13.5.
Ravens (7-3) at Jaguars (3-7)
- Opening Spread: Jaguars +4
- Opening Game Total: 45.5
- Opening Team Totals: Jaguars (20.75), Ravens (24.75)
- Weather: Outdoors, strong chance of rain
The Line Report
- This line opened as Jaguars +4.
- The Jaguars' line has moved down to +3.5.
- This total opened at 45.5 points.
- 45.5 points is the total points that remain.
The Bottom Line
The Ravens snuck by the Panthers in Baltimore last week, unnecessarily forcing me to sweat my live entry in DraftKings' $1.2 million survivor pool. If Baltimore plays like that against this Jaguars team coming off its bye with a clean injury report, the Ravens are going to lose. I’ve bet Jacksonville +4 and I’m going to take them in my main ATS pool at +3.5.
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Broncos (3-7) at Panthers (3-8)
- Opening Spread: Panthers +2.5
- Opening Game Total: 35
- Opening Team Totals: Panthers (16.25), Broncos (18.75)
- Weather: Outdoors, rain expected
The Line Report
- This line opened as Panthers +2.5.
- This line has moved down to Panthers +1.5.
- This total opened at 35 points.
- This total has moved to 36.5 points.
The Bottom Line
Sam Darnold is taking over at quarterback for the Panthers, which could be a good thing for D.J. Moore. I took Moore’s over 4.5 receptions on plus money yesterday, which I explain on our Player Prop Happy Hour Show. From an against-the-spread standpoint, I’m going to take the Broncos or pass here. I’m leaning toward passing because I have no confidence in either of these teams.
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Falcons (5-6) at Commanders (6-5)
- Opening Spread: Commanders -3.5
- Opening Game Total: 43
- Opening Team Totals: Commanders (23.25), Falcons (19.75)
- Weather: Outdoors, rain expected
The Line Report
- This line opened as Commanders -3.5.
- This line remains at Commanders -3.5.
- This total opened at 43 points.
- This total has moved down slightly to 42.5 points.
The Bottom Line
Both of these teams are highly motivated, and another loss or two would push them toward elimination in the NFC playoff race. Washington’s front against the Falcons' offensive line is the one significant advantage either side has in this contest. I’m not interested in betting on either side against the spread, but Ben Wolby took Terry McLaurin’s over-receiving yards on the Player Prop Happy Hour, which I’ve tailed.
Bears (3-8) at Jets (6-4)
- Opening Spread: Jets -6
- Opening Game Total: 42
- Opening Team Totals: Jets (24), Bears (18)
- Weather: Outdoors, rain expected
The Line Report
- This line opened as Jets -6.
- This line has moved to Jets -6.5.
- This total opened at 42 points.
- This total has moved down to 39.5 points.
The Bottom Line
I have an unconventional stance on this game, as I was interested in the Jets with Zach Wilson as the starter, but I’m probably going to pass now with Mike White at the helm. The Jets' defense has a major advantage in the trenches, and while Wilson has been underwhelming this year, he’s only thrown an interception in two of his seven games this season. White threw two or more interceptions in three of his four games last year. Justin Fields has not been officially ruled out as of this writing, which further entrenches this game as a stay-away for me.
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Chargers (5-5) at Cardinals (4-7)
- Opening Spread: Cardinals +3.5
- Opening Game Total: 47.5
- Opening Team Totals: Cardinals (22), Chargers (25.5)
- Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened as Cardinals +3.5.
- This line has moved down to Cardinals +2.5.
- This total opened at 47.5 points.
- This total remains at 47.5 points.
The Bottom Line
The returns of Kyler Murray and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown give this game some major shootout potential. That said, Arizona is still marching out four backups on its offensive line, which creates an obvious path to its offense struggling. Due to that negative element, I’m going to get my exposure to this game potentially shooting out through DFS instead of betting on the over in this contest.
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Raiders (3-7) at Seahawks (6-4)
- Opening Spread: Seahawks -4
- Opening Game Total: 47.5
- Opening Team Totals: Seahawks (25.75), Raiders (21.75)
- Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain
The Line Report
- This line opened as Seahawks -4.
- This line has moved to Seahawks -3.5.
- This total opened at 47.5 points.
- This total remains at 47.5 points.
The Bottom Line
Apart from players that were already on injured reserve, the Seahawks exit their bye week with a very clean injury report. The Raiders are still down Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, and Josh Jacobs was a late addition to this week's injury report. I have a slight lean towards the Seattle side and the over, but I have not bet either directly. Josh Larky took Davante Adams over receiving yards in this contest and I tailed him on that bet. I also bet on Mack Hollins' meager 2.5 over receptions number, but that option was juiced up to -180 in a short period of time (which means you shouldn’t take it).
Rams (3-7) at Chiefs (8-2)
- Opening Spread: Chiefs -14.5
- Opening Game Total: 44
- Opening Team Totals: Chiefs (29.25), Rams (14.75)
- Weather: Outdoors, no concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened between Chiefs -14 and Chiefs -14.5.
- This line has moved to Chiefs -15.5.
- This total opened at 44 points.
- This total has moved down to 43.5 points.
The Bottom Line
This has been an odd week for me in betting because not only have I taken Miami as a massive favorite, but I’ve also taken the Chiefs -14. That line is getting driven past 14 points at this juncture, which decreases my enthusiasm some, but ultimately we’re getting Bryce Perkins behind the league’s worst offensive line, without Cooper Kupp, against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s Chiefs. I’d still lean toward the Chiefs' side, which is part of my reasoning for taking Isiah Pacheco’s over-yards rushing in the low 60’s. Additionally, if I can find Chiefs DT Chris Jones getting a sack at +200 or better odds, I’m going to take that, as well.
Saints (4-7) at 49ers (6-4)
- Opening Spread: 49ers -8.5
- Opening Game Total: 42
- Opening Team Totals: 49ers (25.25), Saints (16.75)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as 49ers -8.5 and remains there.
- This total opened at 42 points, moving up to 43.5 points.
The Bottom Line
I don’t have any play on this game against the spread or on the total, primarily because the 49ers' defensive front is still reduced by injury while the Saints have injury uncertainties on both lines. I did, however, take Deebo Samuel's over 4.5 receptions on the Player Prop Happy Hour show last Friday. Samuel is on the injury report with a hamstring issue, which reduces my enthusiasm on that bet as it creates a reasonable path to him not finishing the contest and thus not seeing enough volume to beat this number.
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Sunday Night Football: Packers (4-7) at Eagles (9-1)
- Opening Spread: Eagles -7
- Opening Game Total: 45
- Opening Team Totals: Eagles (26), Packers (19)
- Weather: Outdoors, rain expected
The Line Report
- This line opened as Eagles -7.
- This line has moved down to Eagles -6.5.
- This total opened at 45 points.
- This total has moved up slightly to 45.5 points.
The Bottom Line
This game marks the last stand of the Packers' 2022 season in terms of making a playoff push. That is a very uphill battle against the Eagles, who have the best roster in the league. During the Player Prop Happy Hour show, Ben Wolby took Miles Sanders over 66.5 yards rushing and I took him over 14.5 carries. The three of us took both of these bets.
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Monday Night Football: Steelers (3-7) at Colts (4-6-1)
I’d imagine that I’m higher than consensus on Kenny Pickett than most, as I’ve seen more encouraging aspects of his game than concerns during his rocky rookie season. With T.J. Watt back the Steelers' defense has a major trench advantage against a stationary quarterback in Matt Ryan. I lean towards the Steelers side in this game and while I haven’t locked them into my main ATS tournament entry, they are in my pool of options.
WATCH MORE: Week 12's Best Player Prop Bets
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