Analysis
11/22/22
7 min read
NFL Week 12 Offensive Efficiency Rankings
Through 11 weeks, we start to see less movement in the Offensive Efficiency rankings. Only four teams moved more than three spots, and only one new team has entered the top 10. Additionally, this past week resulted in the third-lowest combined points scored in a game on average this season at 41.9.
Offenses still continue to struggle to find efficiency in terms of EPA per play, as there seems to be a pretty clear-cut difference between the top and the rest of the league.
Offensive Efficiency Rankings Explained
This season, we’ve taken a weekly temperature on the efficiency of each offense and defense. This article will once again check in on how each NFL defense ranks in EPA/Play. If you’re unfamiliar with EPA, it stands for expected points added and is simply a way to measure whether or not a play brought a team closer to scoring.
For example, it’s easy to understand that a gain of five yards on fourth-and-4 is good, whereas a gain of five yards on fourth-and-6 is bad, and EPA can contextualize that in a way that net yards cannot.
To put into context the worth of a big turnover, another example would be a quarterback throwing a pick-six on first-and-goal from the opponent’s 1-yard line. Conventional wisdom would say that was a 14-point swing – because we expected the offense to score a touchdown in that situation – and EPA would reflect roughly that.
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1. Kansas City Chiefs
EPA/Play = 0.14
Last Week = 1
2. Buffalo Bills
EPA/Play = 0.06
Last Week = 3
T-3. Miami Dolphins
EPA/Play = 0.05
Last Week = 4
T-3. Philadelphia Eagles
EPA/Play = 0.05
Last Week = 2
T-5. Las Vegas Raiders
EPA/Play = 0.02
Last Week = 7
T-5. Seattle Seahawks
EPA/Play = 0.02
Last Week = 6
T-7. Baltimore Ravens
EPA/Play = 0.01
Last Week = 5
T-7. Cleveland Browns
EPA/Play = 0.01
Last Week = T-8
9. Cincinnati Bengals
EPA/Play = 0.00
Last Week = T-8
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T-10. Dallas Cowboys
EPA/Play = -0.01
Last Week = T-17
After an emphatic 40-3 beatdown of the Vikings, the Cowboys find themselves seven spots higher and cracking the top 10 of this week’s rankings. Dak Prescott had an ultra-efficient game, completing 22 passes on 25 attempts for 276 yards and two touchdowns. What is shocking, however, is that Prescott had the fourth-lowest average depth of target (ADoT) in Week 11 (5.6).
Enter Tony Pollard, who caught six of those passes for 109 yards and two TDs, with one of those going for 68 yards on a wheel route. There were rumblings of Pollard taking over the featured role in the Cowboys' backfield even when Ezekiel Elliot came back from injury, but those rumblings seem to have turned into truths.
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T-10. Detroit Lions
EPA/Play = -0.01
Last Week = T-12
The Lions continue to impress offensively, as they have entered the top 10 after posting 31 points against the Giants on Sunday. All four of the Lions' touchdowns came on the ground, with three of them coming from Jamaal Williams, who is now first in the NFL with 12.
A major component of the Lions' offensive success has been their offensive line, which is tied for fifth in Total Points per play. Additionally, Jared Goff has been more than serviceable, as he is ninth in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) with 6.8.
T-10. Jacksonville Jaguars
EPA/Play = -0.01
Last Week = T-10
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T-13. New York Giants
EPA/Play = -0.02
Last Week = T-10
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T-13. San Francisco 49ers
EPA/Play = -0.02
Last Week = T-12
T-15. Arizona Cardinals
EPA/Play = -0.03
Last Week = T-14
T-15. Atlanta Falcons
EPA/Play = -0.03
Last Week = T-14
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T-17. Chicago Bears
EPA/Play = -0.04
Last Week = T-17
T-17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
EPA/Play = -0.04
Last Week = T-17
T-19. Los Angeles Chargers
EPA/Play = -0.05
Last Week = T-20
T-19. New Orleans Saints
EPA/Play = -0.05
Last Week = T-20
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T-21. Green Bay Packers
EPA/Play = -0.06
Last Week = T-20
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T-21. Minnesota Vikings
EPA/Play = -0.06
Last Week = T-14
The Vikings came crashing back to earth in the hardest way possible after their improbable win against the Bills by scoring only three points against the Cowboys. Kirk Cousins had his worst performance of the season, throwing for only 4.6 yards per attempt.
He was also pressured on 60% of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate of the season among quarterbacks with at least 20 attempts. The questions surrounding Justin Jefferson’s turf toe injury only grew louder, as Jefferson only had three catches for 33 yards. All eyes and ears will be on the injury status of the Offensive Player of the Year contender going forward.
23. Tennessee Titans
EPA/Play = -0.07
Last Week = T-23
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
EPA/Play = -0.10
Last Week = T-26
T-25. New England Patriots
EPA/Play = -0.11
Last Week = T-26
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T-25. Washington Commanders
EPA/Play = -0.11
Last Week = T-28
The Commanders are gaining steam as they have won five out of their last six games. During the last two weeks, they have gotten the ground game going as they ranked tied for eighth in EPA per attempt during this timespan. Both Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr. rank in the top 20 in EPA per attempt over the last two weeks and have a combined 259 rushing yards.
T-27. Los Angeles Rams
EPA/Play = -0.12
Last Week = 30
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T-27. New York Jets
EPA/Play = -0.12
Last Week = T-23
T-29. Carolina Panthers
EPA/Play = -0.13
Last Week = 25
T-29. Denver Broncos
EPA/Play = -0.13
Last Week = 31
31. Houston Texans
EPA/Play = -0.14
Last Week = T-28
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32. Indianapolis Colts
EPA/Play = -0.15
Last Week = 32
Prepared by James Weaver.
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