Analysis

11/30/20

4 min min read

NFL Week 12 Statistical Review

Let's take a look at some interesting numbers from Sunday's NFL action:

Vikings vs. Panthers

Rookie Record-Setting Performances

The Vikings scored a TD on their opening drive, the fifth time this season they’ve done so
Justin Jefferson, PFF’s top-ranked rookie, caught a 12-yard TD reception, his fifth of the season. Jefferson became the sixth rookie in NFL history to have 850-plus receiving yards and 5 TD catches in his first 11 career games. The other five are: Randy Moss, Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Anquan Boldin and Marques Colston (per NFL Research)
After Kirk Cousins and the Vikings’ strong start, they ran into issues due to their lack of success in the run game. Cousins and Dalvin Cook both fumbled in the third quarter, both recovered by rookie S Jeremy Chinn for TDs
Chinn became the first player in franchise history with two defensive TDs in a game
Chinn also tied the NFL record for most fumble recoveries for a TD in a season (2) – and he got both within 10 seconds

Game Swings (per NumberFire)

The Vikings initial TD to Jefferson put them up 7-0, giving them a win probability of 71.32%
They remained ahead in terms of win probability until halftime (went up 10-7 with a Dan Bailey FG as time expired -- 66.99% win probability
The Panthers took a dominant lead in terms of win probability after the two fumble returns for TDs by Chinn (22.7% win probability shift with first fumble return, 20.1% win probability shift with second fumble return)
With a 21-10 lead, the Panthers win probability was 78.89%
The Panthers win probability got as high as 92.62% with 2:18 left in the fourth quarter when Chad Beebe fumbled
Down 27-21, the Vikings led a 1:05 TD drive, culminating in a Beebe touchdown to take the lead, 28-27, and flip the win probability to 80.49% in favor of the Vikings
They held onto this lead as Joey Slye missed a 54 yard FG with 6 seconds left (Panthers win probability at the time of FG attempt was 43.85% and fell to .10% after kicked missed)

Reasons the Vikings Could’ve Struggled Running

G Ezra Cleveland, TE Irv Smith and WR Adam Thielen were all out for this game
Thielen played 91.47% of snaps, Smith 54.55% snaps and Cleveland 100% of snaps in last four games
Coming into this game, the Vikings led the NFL in rushing yards with 22 personnel on the field (2 RB, 2 TE) -- usually Smith and Kyle Rudolph
In 22 personnel through the first 11 weeks of the season, Minnesota ranked: No. 1 in the NFL in yards (352), YAC (234), yards/att (3.7); No. 2 in NFL in rushing attempts (63) and EPA (2.2); and No. 3 in NFL in percentage of plays with positive EPA (42.9%)
In this matchup, the Vikings ran on 34% of their plays with only 38% success rate and only 4 yards per carry. This includes a total of minus-.44 rush epa/play (minus-9.26 total rush EPA)
Last week against Dallas, the Vikings ran on 48% of their plays with 62% success rate and 4.3 yards per carry

Mahomes to Hill Can’t Be Stopped

The Chiefs have now won 19 of their last 20 games
The Patrick Mahomes-to-Tyreek Hill connection started early and was unstoppable. The first play of the game for the Chiefs was a pass to Hill for 34-yards (Hill gained 57 yards in the first 2 minutes)
On the 3rd drive of the game, Mahomes and Hill connected on a 75-yard TD (the longest pass play of the season for Mahomes and the Chiefs, per CBS)
Hill had over 200 yards receiving in the first quarter (7 catches for 203 yards and 2 TDs). This is the most yards in the first quarter of a game since Week 11 of 2006 (Lee Evans with the Bills), per CBS
Hill finished with 269 yards and 3 TDs on 13 receptions

Nightmare for Carlton Davis

Carlton Davis came into this game against the Chiefs with the most coverage snaps in the NFL
He has allowed a completion percentage of only 52.6%, which is good for 20th in the NFL among CBs with minimum 100 snaps
Davis is also fourth in the NFL with 4 INTs with an NFL passer rating against of 59.0 (ninth in the NFL)
In this game, Carlton Davis was matched up one-on-one with Tyreek Hill
Hill has a 40 time of 4.29 and is one of the fastest players in the league while Davis ran a 4.53 40, per ESPN’s Jenna Laine
Davis allowed 13 receptions on 16 targets
81.3% completion percentage, 158.3 passer rating and 18.5 yards per reception allowed
There are 15 CBs (with minimum 200 snaps) who have allowed fewer receiving yards through Week 11 this season than Davis allowed in this game

Six points is the least amount of points the Raiders have scored all season
Bills QB Josh Allen had a passing TD and rushing TD in a game for the 15th time in his career, the second-most by a player in his first three seasons in NFL history, behind Cam Newton's 20.
On his 103-yard kickoff return for a TD, Bengals S Brandon Wilson traveled 109.1 yards of distance and reached his top speed (21.05 MPH) at the Giants’ 40-yard line (Next Gen Stats)
With his 178 rushing yards Sunday, Titans RB Derrick Henry has 100-plus rushing yards in 8 consecutive road games, tied with Chris Johnson (2009-10) for the second-longest streak in NFL history. Only HOF Barry Sanders (10 games, 1996-97) has a longer streak (NFL345)
The Patriots won despite having only three players catch a pass, and only two finish with positive receiving yards (James White had minus-1 yard).
According to Elias Sports, it is the first time the Patriots had three players or fewer with a catch since 10/30/1988 vs. Chicago (per ESPN’s Mike Reiss)
Miami had its 17th straight game with at least one takeaway, currently the longest streak in the NFL
The Broncos became the first team with more passes intercepted than completed since the Chargers in 1998. Ryan Leaf started that game for San Diego. (per ESPN Stats and Info)

Tags: Carlton Davis, Carolina Panthers, Jeremy Chinn See More