Analysis
12/3/22
9 min read
NFL Week 13 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Commanders vs. Giants
Washington Commanders (7-5) at New York Giants (7-4)
Opening Spread: Giants +1.5.
Opening Game Total: 40.5.
Opening Team Totals: Giants (19.5), Commanders (21).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Giants +1.5.
- This line has moved to Giants +2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Giants +2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Giants +2.5.
- This total opened at 40.5 points.
- This total remains at 40.5 points.
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Notable Injuries
Giants: Out: LG Joshua Ezeudu, CB Adoree’ Jackson. Questionable: WR Kenny Golladay, WR Darius Slayton, WR Richie James, TE Daniel Bellinger, C Jon Feliciano, RG Mark Glowinski, S Dane Belton, CB Fabian Moreau.
Commanders: Out: RG Trai Turner, CB Benjamin St-Juste. Questionable: RB Antonio Gibson, Edge Chase Young.
The Giants Offense vs. Commanders Defense
The Giants have a below-average offensive line with one premium player in left tackle Andrew Thomas. Washington has a top-ten defensive front that could get Chase Young back for the first time this year. Washington’s defense has a significant advantage in the trenches, while the Commanders' premium interior duo has a massive advantage in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Giants are 8-3 against the spread this season.
- The Giants are 4-7 on overs this season.
- Daniel Jones is 27-22 against the spread in his career.
- Daniel Jones is 19-28-2 on overs in his career.
- Brian Daboll is 8-3 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Brian Daboll is 4-7 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Giants Offense
- The Giants are scoring 20.5 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- New York is 28th in the league in yards passing per game and sixth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Daniel Jones is fifth among quarterbacks in yards rushing with 451.
- Saquon Barkley is fourth in the league in yards rushing with 992 yards. Barkley is 15th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Since his 35-carry output against the Texans in Week 10, Saquon Barkley has looked like a different player. Gary Brightwell looked like he had more burst than Barkley in last week’s tilt in Dallas.
- Darius Slayton has six or more targets in four of his last five games. Slayton has at least 58 yards receiving in all five of those contests while breaching 80 yards receiving in two of his last three games.
- Slayton is the only Giants wide receiver worth mentioning now that Wan’Dale Robinson is out for the year.
- Daniel Bellinger has a shot to return to action this week at tight end.
- Per TruMedia, Darius Slayton has played 270 snaps on the perimeter and 107 in the slot.
Commanders Defense
- The Commanders have allowed 19.7 points per game, which is tenth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Commanders have allowed the sixth-fewest yards rushing per game and the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Washington has given up the eighth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Washington has given up the seventh-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Commanders have allowed the second-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Commanders Offense vs. Giants Defense
The Commanders have a below-average offensive line. The Giants have a fringe top-ten defensive front. The Giants have a significant advantage in the trenches in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Commanders are 7-4-1 against the spread this season.
- The Commanders are 4-8 on overs this season.
- Taylor Heinicke is 13-16-1 against the spread in his career.
- Taylor Heinicke is 10-20 on overs in his career.
- Ron Rivera is 96-84-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Ron Rivera is 91-92-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
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Commanders Offense
- The Commanders are scoring 19.4 points per game, which is 24th in the league.
- Washington is 24th in the league in yards passing per game and 15th in yards rushing.
- Washington is 5-1 since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback.
- Per the Edge, Brian Robinson Jr. has double-digit carries in each of his last four games and he’s coming off his first 100-yard game as a pro. Robinson has five targets over this four-game span.
- Antonio Gibson has at least nine carries in each of his last four games. Gibson has exactly three targets in each of those contests.
- Since Taylor Heinicke took over in Week 7, Terry McLaurin has a 31% target share and a 53% air yards share.
- Since Taylor Heinicke took over in Week 7, Curtis Samuel has a 13.9% target share and a 16.2% air yards share.
- Since Taylor Heinicke took over in Week 7, Jahan Dotson has a 5.7% target share and an 8.3% air yards share.
- Since Taylor Heinicke took over in Week 7, Logan Thomas has a 12.7% target share and an 11.4% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Logan Thomas has played 162 snaps as an inline tight end, 54 on the perimeter, and 194 in the slot.
Giants Defense
- The Giants have allowed 21.1 points per game, which is 14th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Giants have allowed the fifth-most yards rushing per game and the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New York has given up the 24th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Giants have allowed the third-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Giants have allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Giants vs. Commanders
This is the first matchup between these division rivals this season. Both teams are in nearly identical spots in the NFC Wild Card race. The Commanders go on their bye next week, then these two teams play again in Washington in Week 15. Washington beat New York twice last year, first in a 30-29 game on Week 2’s installment of Thursday Night Football and again in the regular season finale 22-7.
After a 7-2 start the Giants are freefalling back to reality. The Giants have a bottom-ten quarterback, wide receiver room, tight end group, offensive line, and linebacker group. The strengths of this team are its defensive line, running back, and coaching staff. The Giants' secondary is down their two best players, making that group more of a liability than an asset. After two blowout losses to the Lions and Cowboys, the Giants' injury-ravaged roster really needs a win. This contest is one of their two best chances at a victory through the rest of the season.
Daniel Jones hasn’t had very many notable games as a professional quarterback, but he’s had some of his best showings against Washington. He’s had considerable success on the ground a few different times against the Commanders. If you’re betting on the Giants, you’re betting on a strong outing from Jones. Saquon Barkley hasn’t looked right in either of the last two weeks. The Giants are coming off the long week, which at least creates a path to Barkley looking more like the dynamic athlete that he is when he’s at first strength. Defensively, you’re primarily banking on the Giants' front four and their coaching staff against a very beatable Washington offense. Your biggest concern as a Giants bettor is that Washington’s front derails this game, while Taylor Heinicke’s offense spends most of their Sunday with a lead.
Washington is 5-1 since Taylor Heinicke took over, but their defense has driven that success. Washington has surrendered 21 or fewer points in each of their last eight games. If you’re betting on Washington, you are betting on that trend continuing against the Giants' limited offense. Washington’s defense has a major advantage in the trenches in this contest. A dominant performance from the Commanders defense is very much on the table against New York. Back in Week 2 of last season, Taylor Heinicke breached 300 yards passing against the Giants. The Giants' secondary has been ravaged by injuries, so there is a path to Washington’s passing attack exceeding expectations. My biggest concern as a Commanders bettor is that the Giants' defensive front has a significant advantage in the trenches themselves and Taylor Heinicke has thrown an interception in 16 of his last 22 games. The other concern I have is that Daniel Jones has a spike game as a runner, as he’s done against Washington a few times in the past.
Awards Market Ramifications: If the Giants lose this game, Brian Daboll falls out of the Coach of the Year race and Ron Rivera takes his place. Saquon Barkley is in danger of falling out of the Comeback Player of the Year race with another mediocre outing.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: If the Giants don’t win this game, their season is close to over considering their remaining schedule. I’ll have exposure to both of these teams in winner pools. I will rank this game as close to the bottom as I reasonably can in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: From a pure football standpoint the Commanders have a better, healthier roster than the Giants. I will either take Washington against the spread or pass.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 38-22
Props 2022: 39-23
