Betting
12/3/22
7 min read
NFL Week 13 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Jaguars vs. Lions
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Detroit Lions (4-7)
Opening Spread: Lions -1.5.
Opening Game Total: 52.
Opening Team Totals: Lions (26.75), Jaguars (25.25).
Weather: Dome.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Lions -1.5.
- This line has moved between Lions -1 and Lions +.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Lions +.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Lions +1.
- This total opened at 52 points.
- This total has moved slightly down to 51.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Lions: Out: WR Jameson Williams, G Evan Brown.
Jaguars: Questionable: RB Travis Etienne, WR Zay Jones, S Andre Cisco.
The Lions Offense vs. the Jaguars Defense
The Lions offensive line is a top-ten unit. The Jaguars defensive front is a league-average unit with two blue-chip edge rushers on their rookie deals. The Lions offense has a moderate advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Lions are 7-4 against the spread this season.
- The Lions are 7-4 on overs this season.
- Jared Goff is 50-42-2 against the spread in his career.
- Jared Goff is 46-48 on overs in his career.
Lions Offense
- The Lions are scoring 25 points per game, good for eighth in the league.
- Detroit is 12th in the league in yards passing per game and tenth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Jamaal Williams is 13th in the league in yards rushing with 734, and he’s the leader in rushing touchdowns with 13.
- In the five games since D’Andre Swift returned from injury, he has 23 total carries and 23 total targets. Over that same span, Jamaal Williams has 85 carries and three targets.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has 26 targets over his last three games while breaching 100 yards receiving twice during that span.
- DJ Chark’s role increased in each of his two games since returning from injury.
- Brock Wright and James Mitchell have been minor role players in the Lions passing game since T.J. Hockenson was traded.
Jaguars Defense
- The Jaguars have allowed 21.1 points per game, which is 14th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jaguars have allowed the 24th-most yards rushing per game and the fourth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Jacksonville has given up the 17th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Jaguars have allowed the fifth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Jaguars Offense vs. the Lions Defense
The Jaguars have a fringe top-ten offensive line. The Lions have a slightly below-average defensive front. Therefore, the Jaguars offense has a moderate advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jaguars are 4-7 against the spread this season.
- The Jaguars are 5-6 on overs this season.
- Trevor Lawrence is 9-19 against the spread in his career.
- Trevor Lawrence is 10-18 on overs in his career.
- Doug Pederson is 42-49 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Doug Pederson is 44-47 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars Offense
- The Jaguars are scoring 22.2 points per game, good for 16th in the league.
- Jacksonville is 14th in the league in yards passing per game and ninth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Travis Etienne is 14th in the league in yards rushing with 728. He’s 20th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Christian Kirk has a 24.7% target share and a 30.4% air yards share.
- Zay Jones has a 22.8% target share and a 25.2% air yards share.
- Marvin Jones has a 15.3% target share and a 27.5% air yards share.
- Evan Engram has a 13.8% target share and a 14.3% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Christian Kirk has played 184 snaps on the perimeter and 426 in the slot.
- Zay Jones has played 394 snaps on the perimeter and 177 in the slot.
- Marvin Jones has played 390 snaps on the perimeter and 68 in the slot.
- Evan Engram has played 233 snaps as an inline tight end, 110 on the perimeter, and 185 in the slot.
Lions Defense
- The Lions have allowed 28.2 points per game, which is 32nd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Lions have allowed the 11th-most yards rushing per game and the second-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Detroit has given up the second-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Detroit has given up the most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Lions have allowed the eighth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Lions have allowed the most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Jaguars vs. Lions
A bet on the Lions is a bet on a scrappy team that’s won three of their last four games while taking the Bills to the brink on Thanksgiving day. The Lions have a talented offense, led by their top-ten-level offensive line. On top of that, Detroit has two quality running backs with complementary skill sets, an emerging star in wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, a solid lid lifter in DJ Chark, and a professional quarterback in Jared Goff. Detroit also benefits from strong play calling on offense, as we saw last week against the Bills.
If you’re betting on the Lions in this matchup, you are doing so with the expectation that their offense at least meets expectations. The Lions defense could improve in several areas, but their pass rush has had a few spike games this season, and this group as a whole has gotten better as the season has progressed. However, your biggest concern with a Lions bet is that Trevor Lawrence was a historically relevant quarterback prospect a year ago, and he’s starting to look like one.
A bet on the Jaguars is a bet on a young, improving team that could be a real threat as early as next season. For now, Trevor Lawrence elevates a group of complimentary pass catchers that lacks a true alpha. Lawrence is supported by a strong offensive line with a dynamic runner in Lawrence’s college teammate Travis Etienne. The Jaguars offense is inconsistent, but they have the potential to hang 30-plus points against this Lions defense. On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars have more talent on defense than the Lions do. Jacksonville has a more complete front four, a better linebacker duo, and a secondary that’s at least even with Detroit’s.
If you’re betting on the Jaguars in this spot, I’m building that bet around Jacksonville’s defense having a greater impact than Detroit’s. Your biggest concern as a Jaguars bettor is that they are coming off a pretty encouraging win against the Ravens last week, and a young team like this could realistically be in for a letdown on the road in Detroit.
Jaguars vs. Lions Pool Picks and Other Bets
Awards Market Ramifications: Aidan Hutchinson and Travon Walker are both Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: This game is a true coin flip, so I will have some exposure to both teams in that format. I will rank this game as low as I realistically can in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m going to pass on this game.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 38-22
Props 2022: 39-23
WATCH: Matt Cassel and Marty Mornhinweg on Trevor Lawrence
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