Betting
12/10/22
8 min read
NFL Week 14 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Chiefs vs. Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Denver Broncos (3-9)
Opening Spread: Broncos +9.
Opening Game Total: 43.
Opening Team Totals: Broncos (17) Chiefs (26).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Broncos +9.
- This line has moved to Broncos +9.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Broncos +9.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Broncos +9.5.
- This total opened at 43 points.
- This total has moved to 42.5 points.
The Broncos Offense vs. the Chiefs Defense
Denver has a bottom-tier offensive line. The Chiefs have a fringe top-ten front with one of the best interior defenders in the sport in Chris Jones. Kansas City’s defense has a significant advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Broncos are 4-8 against the spread this season.
- The Broncos are 1-11 on overs this season.
- Russell Wilson is 87-76-6 against the spread in his career.
- Russell Wilson is 76-92-1 on overs in his career.
- Nathaniel Hackett is 4-8 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Nathaniel Hackett is 1-11 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Broncos Offense
- The Broncos are scoring 13.8 points per game, which is last in the league.
- Denver is 19th in the league in yards passing per game and 24th in yards rushing.
- The Broncos are passing on 63% of their plays and running on 37% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Latavius Murray has double-digit carries in each of his last three games and in five of his seven games as a Bronco.
- With Courtland Sutton ruled out, Jerry Jeudy is the standalone top option in the Broncos passing attack. Jeudy has an 18.5% target share and a 23.9% air yards share on the season.
- After a few low-performing weeks, rookie tight end Greg Dulcich popped off for six receptions on eight targets for 85 yards receiving against the Ravens last week.
- Per TruMedia, Jerry Jeudy has played 140 snaps on the perimeter and 255 in the slot.
- Greg Dulcich has played 175 snaps as an inline tight end, 20 on the perimeter, and 140 in the slot.
Chiefs Defense
- The Chiefs have allowed 22.5 points per game, which is 15th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Chiefs have allowed the 21st-most yards rushing per game and the fourth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Kansas City has given up the seventh-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Kansas City has given up the fourth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Chiefs have allowed the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Chiefs Offense vs. the Broncos Defense
I have the Chiefs’ offensive line tiered as a top-ten unit with one of the league’s best interiors. With Randy Gregory still sidelined, I have Denver’s front tiered as a league average unit. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chiefs are 5-7 against the spread this season.
- The Chiefs are 5-7 on overs this season.
- Patrick Mahomes is 39-34-2 against the spread in his career.
- Patrick Mahomes is 39-35-1 on overs in his career.
- Andy Reid is 193-163-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Andy Reid is 178-176-11 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
Chiefs Offense
- The Chiefs are scoring 29.2 points per game, which is the best in the league.
- Kansas City is first in the league in yards passing per game and 17th in yards rushing.
- The Chiefs are passing on 68% of their plays and running on 32% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, No. 251 overall pick Isiah Pacheco has at least 14 carries and 66 yards rushing in each of his last four games. Pacheco has six total targets on the season.
- Jerick McKinnon has six or more targets in three of his last five games.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has 52 receptions on 71 targets for 688 yards receiving on the season. However, in his last three games he has four targets or less while being held below 40 yards receiving in each of those contests.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads all Chiefs wide receivers with 565 snaps and 383 routes run this season. MVS has a 13.2% target share with a 24.9% air yards share this year.
- Kadarius Toney could return to action this week. Availability has been an issue throughout Toney’s two-year career, but he is a difference-making athlete when healthy.
- Travis Kelce is fifth in the league in receptions (77), sixth in yards receiving (968), and tied for the lead in touchdowns (12). Kelce is third among tight ends in target share (24.8%) and third in air yards share (23.1%).
- Per TruMedia, Travis Kelce has played 234 snaps as an inline tight end, 151 on the perimeter, and 231 in the slot.
Broncos Defense
- The Broncos have allowed 17 points per game, which is second in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Broncos have allowed the 11th-most yards rushing per game and the 18th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Denver has given up the second-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Broncos have allowed the 14th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Broncos have allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Broncos vs. Chiefs
This is the first meeting between these division rivals this season.
If you’re betting on Denver against the Chiefs, you’re betting on one of two core outcomes. The first is that the Broncos anemic offense continues to score right around 10 points, forcing their defense to hold the Chiefs to right around 20 points in order to cover. The Chiefs have scored less than 24 points in just three of their 12 games this season. While that type of outcome isn’t impossible, it’s unlikely.
The second outcome is that this is the Russell Wilson spike game many of us have been waiting for, where he approaches 300 yards passing while bringing the Broncos past the 20-point threshold for the first time since Week 8. Denver has scored 20 or more points in just two games this season, making this a bit of an outlier outcome as well.
If both of those outlier events align, where Wilson has his best game of the season while the Broncos defense keeps the Chiefs right around expectations, that’s the path to Denver upsetting Kansas City. Your biggest concern as a Broncos bettor is that Patrick Mahomes is coming off a loss, and Denver’s offense has been non-functional all season.
A bet on the Chiefs is always a bet on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s offense. The Broncos have a good defense that could give the Chiefs passing attack a real challenge in this contest. Even if they do, the Broncos offense is broken and among the most disappointing units in football this season.
On top of that, the Chiefs defense has an advantage in the trenches, creating path for Denver’s offense to struggle. Since Kansas City is coming off a loss to the Bengals last week, we should expect a strong effort from the AFC’s measuring stick. Your biggest concern as a Chiefs bettor is that Russell Wilson has his best game of the season while the Broncos defense keeps the Chiefs offense right around expectations. Wilson certainly has that kind of game in him, but we have not seen anything even close to a strong game out of the Broncos offense this season.
Awards Market Ramifications: Patrick Mahomes is an MVP favorite. Travis Kelce is an Offensive Player of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’ll be Chiefs-heavy in winner pools, but I am going to take the Broncos as an aggressive differentiator in at least one of my winner pool entries. I expect to be right in line with consensus on this contest with my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I have no interest in this game against the spread.
Survivor Pool: The Chiefs aren’t an unreasonable option in survivor pools this week, though I intend to use them against the Texans next week in entries where I still have the Chiefs.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 42-25
WATCH MORE: Temper Expectations for Isiah Pacheco vs. Broncos
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