NFL Analysis
12/19/23
14 min read
NFL Week 16 Power Rankings: 49ers, Ravens Serve up No. 1 vs. No. 2 Clash
Every Tuesday, we’ll provide updated power rankings. The rankings will be driven by who the teams are at the moment. Those stances will be centered on every team’s talent, reliability and current level of success.
Betting markets will also influence our stances, as will each team’s path to contention within its conference. We’ll also be aware of each team’s looming schedule difficulty.
NFL Week 16 Power Rankings
1. San Francisco 49ers (11-3) 
Previous Rank: No. 1
Last Game: 49ers 45, Cardinals 29
Brock Purdy is now the standalone MVP favorite. Christian McCaffrey is the Offensive Player of the Year favorite and one of a few MVP contenders.
The San Francisco 49ers allow the second-fewest points per game in the league. The 49ers are the NFL's best, most complete team. They’ll host the Ravens on Christmas night in a potential Super Bowl preview.
Next: vs. BAL (MNF), at WASH, vs. LAR
2. Baltimore Ravens (11-3) 
Previous Rank: No. 3
Last Game: Ravens 23, Jaguars 7
The Baltimore Ravens have been known for their defensive prowess for a while. Pair that with QB Lamar Jackson’s running game and you have one of the toughest outs in the league.
Baltimore has beaten a few teams with winning records, but they haven’t faced a bonafide contender yet this season. That changes Monday night in San Francisco, in one of the best matchups of the season.
Next: at SF (MNF), vs. MIA, vs. PIT
3. Dallas Cowboys (10-4) 
Previous Rank: No. 2
Last Game: Bills 31, Cowboys 10
The Dallas Cowboys were dominated by the desperate Bills in Buffalo last week. The Cowboys were similarly dismantled by the 49ers earlier in the season.
Dallas went on a 7-2 run from that point on, which includes the loss in Buffalo. The Cowboys will get to prove if last week was a fluke with the Dolphins and Lions on deck.
Next: at MIA, vs. DET (Saturday night), at WASH
4. Miami Dolphins (10-4) 
Previous Rank: No. 5
Last Game: Dolphins 30, Jets 0
The Miami Dolphins answered their bizarre loss to the Titans with a dominant, shutout victory against the Jets.
We already knew Miami could blow out teams with losing records. The biggest question mark is can it beat premium teams? The Dolphins will face three in a row to close out the season.
Next: vs. DAL, at BAL, vs. BUF
5. Buffalo Bills (8-6) 
Previous Rank: No. 6
Last Game: Bills 31, Cowboys 10
The once-desperate Buffalo Bills are white-hot after beating Kansas City and blowing out Dallas. Buffalo’s defense allowed just 27 points in those two games against premium opponents. What’s even more interesting is Josh Allen only had 94 passing yards against Dallas.
The Bills are becoming a more complete team at the right time. If Buffalo wins its next two, one Dolphins loss could make Week 18 a bout for AFC East supremacy.
Next: at LAC (Saturday night), vs. NE, at MIA
6. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) 
Previous Rank: No. 4
Last Game: Seahawks 20, Eagles 17
After getting blown out by the 49ers and Cowboys in consecutive weeks, the Philadelphia Eagles dropped their third game in a row in Seattle Monday night. Philadelphia’s struggling secondary allowed Drew Lock to hit two chunk plays late to lose the lead.
The Eagles have one of the most talented rosters in the league, but they are in danger of losing the first playoff game if they don’t improve. Philadelphia will get three tune-up games against below-average opponents to finish the season.
Next: vs. NYG, vs. ARZ, at NYG
7. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) 
Previous Rank: No. 7
Last Game: Chiefs 27, Patriots 17
This Kansas City Chiefs team is the least impressive of the Patrick Mahomes era. Now that we’re entering Week 16, few would dispute that.
That said, as long as Mahomes is around, Kansas City can go on a run through the playoffs. The wrinkle this year is Mahomes may have to do most of that himself on offense.
Next: vs. LV, vs. CIN, at LAC
8. Detroit Lions (10-4) 
Previous Rank: No. 8
Last Game: Lions 42, Broncos 17
The Detroit Lions bounced back in a big way against Denver after an underwhelming four-game stretch. Jared Goff’s offense showed some major ceiling against a quality defense last week. The Lions’ defense was better against the Broncos, but still not overly impressive.
Detroit is a good team with an inflated record due to its manageable schedule. It would be a surprise if the Lions didn’t lose at least one more game in their next three.
Next: at MIN, at DAL (Saturday night), vs. MIN
9. Cleveland Browns (9-5) 
Previous Rank: No. 10
Last Game: Browns 20, Bears 17
It wasn’t pretty against Chicago, but ultimately, the Cleveland Browns’ defense returned to form while Joe Flacco did just enough to escape with a win.
As strange as this sounds, Flacco is a major reason the Browns can make the playoffs. As long as Cleveland’s defense plays like it did last week, the Browns can win at least two of their next three.
Next: at HOU, vs. NYJ (TNF), at CIN
10. Houston Texans (8-6) 
Previous Rank: No. 13
Last Game: Texans 19, Titans 16, OT
The Houston Texans beat the Titans with Case Keenum at quarterback. That somewhat unexpected victory greatly increases the Texans’ chances of making the postseason. Houston’s defense spearheaded another victory, and Devin Singletary provided a jolt for this once non-existent running game.
Much like the Bills, Houston is becoming a more complete team at the right time of year. Week 18’s matchup against the Colts could be a win-and-in-game for both teams.
Next: vs. CLE, vs. TEN, at IND
11. Los Angeles Rams (7-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 12
Last Game: Rams 28, Commanders 20
The Los Angeles Rams have won four of their past five while looking like a dangerous Wild Card opponent. Matthew Stafford has been consistently impactful while the Rams’ running game has exceeded expectations.
Thursday night's matchup against the Saints matches two highly motivated teams that need to win to keep pace in the NFC playoff picture.
Next: vs. NO (TNF), at NYG, at SF
12. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6) 
Previous Rank: No. 11
Last Game: Ravens 23, Jaguars 7
The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost three straight, putting them in a three-way tie with the Texans and Colts atop the AFC South. Nothing is going particularly well for Jacksonville right now, but it closes the season with three winnable games.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have enough talent to finish 11-6, but the AFC South crown is no longer a foregone conclusion.
Next: at TB, vs. CAR, at TEN
13. Denver Broncos (7-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 9
Last Game: Lions 42, Broncos 17
Losing to the Lions in Detroit isn’t the end of the world, but losing by 25 points is concerning. Thankfully for the Denver Broncos, they will face three sub-.500 teams starting backup quarterbacks through the rest of the season.
The Broncos started with a 1-5 record, but they have a realistic path to a 10-7 finish.
Next: vs. NE, vs. LAC, at LV
14. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) 
Previous Rank: No. 16
Last Game: Bengals 27, Vikings 24, OT
Jake Browning has led the Cincinnati Bengals on a three-game winning streak that has kept them alive in the AFC Wild Card picture. Luck has been a bit on the Bengals' side during this run, but this team has gone to the past two AFC Championship games.
They are much more than a team carried by a premium quarterback in Joe Burrow. The challenge is Cincinnati's final three opponents have a combined record of 25-17.
Next: at PIT, at KC, vs. SEA
15. Seattle Seahawks (7-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 15
Last Game: Seahawks 20, Eagles 17
The Seattle Seahawks didn’t beat the Eagles in convincing fashion, but they ended their four-game losing streak against the defending NFC Champs. They did it with a late-game scoring drive by backup quarterback Drew Lock.
This win puts Seattle back in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race. With three games remaining against mediocre or worse teams, Seattle could realistically finish the season 10-7.
Next: at TEN, vs. PIT, at ARZ
16. Indianapolis Colts (8-6) 
Previous Rank: No. 17
Last Game: Colts 30, Steelers 13
The Indianapolis Colts took a step back two weeks ago in a one-sided loss to the Bengals, but they bounced back and took care of business against the Steelers on Saturday.
This team has weathered injuries to major players on offense throughout the season, but it keeps stringing together wins. No team has overachieved more than coach Shane Steichen’s Colts.
Next: at ATL, vs. LV, vs. HOU
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 22
Last Game: Buccaneers 34, Packers 20
You have to hand it to QB Baker Mayfield, who shredded Green Bay for 381 yards in the air last week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers needed a road win against a talented, motivated team last week and Mayfield delivered.
More importantly, Rachaad White has at least 80 rushing yards in each of his last four games. Tampa Bay is tied with the Saints on top of the NFC South, and the Buccaneers are becoming a more complete team down the stretch.
Next: vs. JAX, vs. NO, at CAR
18. New Orleans Saints (7-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 21
Last Game: Saints 24, Giants 6
The New Orleans Saints took care of business last week against a below-average Giants team that’s playing its third-string quarterback. Derek Carr was efficient, but he didn’t need to do much because the Saints’ defense shut down New York.
New Orleans has the talent to be a playoff team, but it has been inconsistent and struggled to finish drives all season. With games left against the Buccaneers and Falcons, the Saints control their destiny.
Next: at LAR (TNF), at TB, vs. ATL
19. Minnesota Vikings (7-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 18
Last Game: Bengals 27, Vikings 24, OT
Brian Flores’ defense didn’t close against the Bengals last week. That loss could cost the Minnesota Vikings a playoff berth. With that in mind, Minnesota’s defense is the primary reason it has stayed alive since Kirk Cousins’ injury.
On the right side, the offense under Nick Mullens was better than expected vs. Cincinnati. Minnesota may need even more from Mullens against Detroit in Week 16.
Next: vs. DET, vs. GB, at DET
20. Chicago Bears (5-9) 
Previous Rank: No. 20
Last Game: Browns 20, Bears 17
The Chicago Bears let another victory slip through their fingers in Cleveland last week.
Chicago’s defense is one of the league’s most improved units in the second half of the season. Justin Fields’ offense, on the other hand, continues to be inconsistent.
Chicago has enough talent to win its final three games, but it needs more stability on offense. If the Bears don’t get it from Fields, they could look for a new solution at quarterback in next year’s draft.
Next: vs. ARZ, vs. ATL, at GB
21. Green Bay Packers (6-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 14
Last Game: Buccaneers 34, Packers 20
It’s been a bizarre month for the Green Bay Packers, who were ascending after convincing wins against the Lions and Chiefs. Then they lost to the Giants on Monday Night Football, before getting borderline blown out by the Buccaneers last week.
Now, Green Bay’s playoff hopes are on life support. The Packers get the best opportunity possible to get back on track against two-win Carolina.
Next: at CAR, at MIN (SNF), vs. CHI
22. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 19
Last Game: Colts 30, Steelers 13
For all the complaints and concerns about Kenny Pickett, the Pittsburgh Steelers are a better team with him.
Pittsburgh will turn to Mason Rudolph this week, which could signal the end of Mitch Trubisky’s professional football career. Rudolph has a playoff-caliber supporting cast, but it’s hard to bet on him being enough to get the Steelers into the playoffs.
Mike Tomlin’s streak of consecutive winning seasons is in danger.
Next: vs. CIN, at SEA, at BAL
23. Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 25
Last Game: Raiders 63, Chargers 21
The Las Vegas Raiders have played hard, and their defense has significantly overachieved since Antonio Pierce took over as head coach.
Last week’s 63-point output had more to do with the Chargers' five turnovers than the Raiders offense's proficiency. Las Vegas closes the season against three teams that could make the playoffs.
Next: at KC, at IND, vs. DEN
24. Tennessee Titans (5-9) 
Previous Rank: No. 24
Last Game: Texans 19, Titans 16, OT
QB Will Levis suffered a high ankle sprain last week, which could thrust Ryan Tannehill back into action.
The Tennessee Titans are out of the playoff mix, but they could be a dangerous spoiler for Seattle as well as division rivals Houston and Jacksonville down the stretch.
Next: vs. SEA, at HOU, vs. JAX
25. Atlanta Falcons (6-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 23
Last Game: Panthers 9, Falcons 7
Considering the stakes for the Atlanta Falcons, last week’s loss to Carolina is arguably the second-worst any team has had this season. What makes matters worse is that coach Arthur Smith once again avoided getting his most dynamic playmakers the ball on offense.
The Falcons have been one of the league’s most frustrating teams because they have enough talent to be a factor, but they consistently shoot themselves in the foot. Entering Week 16, there’s no reason to expect that to change.
Next: vs. IND, at CHI, at NO
26. New York Giants (5-9) 
Previous Rank: No. 26
Last Game: Saints 24, Giants 6
Tommy DeVito took seven sacks while his New York Giants offense scored six points in New Orleans. That seems to be more in line with reality than DeVito’s Giants going on a three-game winning streak.
The Giants face the Eagles twice and the red-hot Rams to finish the season. It would be no surprise if Big Blue has already enjoyed their final victory of the 2023 campaign.
Next: at PHI, vs. LAR, vs. PHI
27. Arizona Cardinals (3-11) 
Previous Rank: No. 29
Last Game: 49ers 45, Cardinals 29
The Arizona Cardinals are on the short list of teams in contention for the first overall pick. That said, they are 2-3 since Kyler Murray returned and a much more dangerous team now than on opening day.
Arizona faces three NFC teams with talented rosters that each have a path to a playoff berth.
Next: at CHI, at PHI, vs. SEA
28. New York Jets (5-9) 
Previous Rank: No. 27
Last Game: Dolphins 30, Jets 0
After blowing out Houston in Week 15 behind an unexpected offensive surge, the New York Jets were shut out by Miami. It’s no surprise that New York’s offense returned to reality, but its defensive effort against the Dolphins was a surprise.
Now that the Jets are eliminated from the playoffs, motivation becomes a concern for Gang Green.
Next: vs. WASH, at CLE (TNF), at NE
29. Washington Commanders (4-10) 
Previous Rank: 30
Last Game: Rams 28, Commanders 20
Sam Howell has struggled for weeks, which resulted in a relief appearance by Jacoby Brissett, who made last week’s contest look closer than it was.
The Washington Commanders have the league’s worst pass defense, which will be a problem against the 49ers and Cowboys to close out the season.
Next: at NYJ, vs. SF, vs. DAL
30. New England Patriots (3-11) 
Previous Rank: No. 31
Last Game: Chiefs 27, Patriots 17
The New England Patriots continue to play hard, and Bailey Zappe has provided a small spark on offense, but ultimately the Patriots have one of the league’s worst rosters. You could argue New England hasn’t faced a team all year with a worse roster than its.
Next: at DEN, at BUF, vs. NYJ
31. Carolina Panthers (2-12) 
Previous Rank: No. 32
Last Game: Panthers 9, Falcons 7
The Carolina Panthers' offense has been unwatchable all season, but their defense has put together several scrappy performances. Last week netted them a win against maddeningly underachieving Atlanta.
Next: vs. GB, at JAX, vs. TB
32. Los Angeles Chargers (5-9) 
Previous Rank: No. 28
Last Game: Raiders 63, Chargers 21
The Los Angeles Chargers lost to the Raiders by 42 points last Thursday night, and the game wasn’t that close.
Losing by that margin to the Aidan O’Connell-led Raiders is one of the most embarrassing losses in NFL history. It also puts the Easton Stick-led Chargers in the Power Rankings’ basement for at least one week.
Next: vs. BUF (Saturday night), at DEN, vs. KC
