Betting
12/28/23
12 min read
NFL Week 17: Expert Picks, Predictions For Every Game
Playoff races get tighter every week, which means the pool of teams out of contention gets bigger. That sometimes leads to personnel changes that can dramatically change the dynamic of individual contests. Keep an eye on those changes as we get deeper into the week while watching for any severe weather this late in the season.
Let’s jump into every game on the Week 17 slate.
Thursday Night Football
Browns vs. Jets
Spread: Browns -7.5
Total: 36
New York Jets quarterback Trevor Siemian will go from facing the league’s worst pass defense in Washington to one of the best in Cleveland. He’ll do that on a short week, on what looks to be a cold and rainy night. The Cleveland Browns’ pass rush has a trench advantage in this matchup. New York will struggle to score between that and Cleveland’s high-end secondary.
Joe Flacco has saved the Browns’ season, throwing for more than 300 passing yards in his last three games. All were Browns wins where Flacco carried the offense. Flacco faces the Jets’ premium pass defense on a short week. There are two important wrinkles in that matchup. The first is that Flacco played for the Jets last season, so New York is familiar with what he does well and what he doesn’t.
Additionally, RT Jack Conklin is on injured reserve, and Cleveland’s other four starting offensive linemen are on the injury report. If multiple linemen miss this contest, the Jets’ pass rush will have a trench advantage. In that scenario, Flacco is the biggest difference between these two similarly built rosters. With that in mind, no one should expect Flacco to continue throwing for 300 passing yards every week.
Score Prediction: Browns 13, Jets 6
Saturday Night Game
Cowboys vs. Lions
Spread: Cowboys -6
Total: 53.5
After two underwhelming showings against the Bills and Dolphins, Dak Prescott’s passing attack is in a correction spot against the Detroit Lions. The Lions’ pass defense has been a liability for longer than a month, giving up 411 passing yards to Nick Mullens last week. If it doesn’t play its best game in weeks, the Dallas Cowboys could put up a monster score. That’s why Dallas is a somewhat surprising six-point favorite against the 11-4 Lions.
That puts the pressure on Detroit’s offense. The Bills and Cardinals beat the Cowboys’ formidable defense through run-centric game plans. The Lions have one of the league’s best offensive lines, paired with one of the best running back duos in football. If Detroit leaves with a win, the Lions’ running game likely will play a major role in that effort.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Lions 23
Sunday Slate
Ravens vs. Dolphins
Spread: Ravens -3.5
Total: 47
The Baltimore Ravens dominated the 49ers in San Francisco on Christmas night. The secondary consistently forced tight windows against the 49ers’ loaded group of pass catchers. Baltimore’s five interceptions were the biggest difference in that contest.
The offensive line did a fantastic job against San Francisco’s elite pass rush, and Lamar Jackson continued to create difference-making plays to extend drives. All in all, Baltimore played a near-perfect game against the league’s most talented roster.
The Miami Dolphins slipped past Dallas last week, giving Miami its first win against a premium opponent. Miami’s defense has been better in the second half than it was early in the season.
What makes the Dolphins dangerous is their unprecedented duo of speed demons, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Unfortunately, Hill is playing through an ankle injury, and Waddle suffered a high ankle sprain last week. With those two players, Miami is a very dangerous team. Without them, Miami has a much tighter margin of error against elite teams like Baltimore.
Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Dolphins 20
Commanders vs. 49ers
Spread: Commanders +13.5
Total: 49
The San Francisco 49ers are in a classic correction spot after their disappointing showing against the Ravens on Christmas night. Brock Purdy will get the opportunity to bounce back against the Washington Commanders’ league-worst pass defense.
On top of that, the 49ers’ pass rush will have a major trench advantage against Washington. If LT Trent Williams or LG Aaron Brooks miss this contest that could reduce San Francisco’s offensive ceiling. Otherwise, the 49ers are positioned to dominate in all phases.
Score Prediction: 49ers 42, Commanders 13
Colts vs. Raiders
Spread: Colts -3
Total: 43.5
You could argue this is a matchup between the league’s two most overachieving teams. The Las Vegas Raiders’ defense paved the road to victory against the Chiefs in Arrowhead. Aidan O’Connell only threw for 62 yards in that victory. The Raiders have been feisty since Antonio Pierce took over back in Week 9, but O’Connell’s offense is unreliable.
The Indianapolis Colts have won five of their last seven, but they’ve recently been blown out by the Falcons and Jake Brownings’ Bengals. Indianapolis’ offense has driven most of the team’s success, although that group may be the most overachieving unit in the league. The Raiders’ defense under Pierce is right at the top of that list as well. Ultimately, how Gardner Minshew’s offense fairs against Maxx Crosby’s defense will determine this matchup.
Score Prediction: Colts 21, Raiders 17
Giants vs. Rams
Spread: Giants +6
Total: 42
The Los Angeles Rams have won five of their past six, with that lone loss coming in an overtime game against the Ravens in Baltimore. The Rams are one of the league’s hottest teams, scoring at least 28 points in each of their last five games. If the New York Giants’ defense doesn’t hold Matthew Stafford to around the Rams’ team total, this game could get ugly.
Tyrod Taylor is taking over at quarterback for New York. Taylor is mobile, and he’s made a number of downfield throws when he’s seen action this season, but he’s a backup for a reason. If Stafford’s Rams continue to score 28 points or more, it’s hard to envision New York keeping up.
Score Prediction: Rams 27, Giants 13
Bills vs. Patriots
Spread: Bills -12
Total: 40.5
The Buffalo Bills are on a three-game winning streak that put them back into the AFC playoff picture. The most impressive aspect of Buffalo’s run is that Josh Allen hasn’t carried the team. The Bills are playing their most complete football since the first few weeks of the season.
Buffalo lost to the New England Patriots 29-25 back in Week 7. The Patriots have also won two of their last three, with victories against Denver and Pittsburgh. New England has a limited roster, meaning Bill Belichick’s familiarity with Josh Allen is the Patriots’ biggest edge in this matchup.
Score Prediction: Bills 24, Patriots 13
Texans vs. Titans
Spread: Texans -4.5
Total: 42.5
Two weeks ago, the Houston Texans clipped the Tennessee Titans 19-16 with Case Keenum under center. Houston’s defense carried that effort. C.J. Stroud is trending toward making his return this week.
He can shred Tennessee’s vulnerable secondary if he gets stable pass protection. Simply put, Houston has several paths to victory in this matchup if Stroud is back.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Titans 20
Eagles vs. Cardinals
Spread: Eagles -11
Total: 48.5
The Philadelphia Eagles ended their losing skid against the Giants last week. Two freak plays made that game look closer than it was. Jalen Hurts’ offense has the raw materials to exceed 30 points against the Arizona Cardinals. That said, the Eagles’ secondary has become a consistent liability.
If the Cardinals are going to keep this game close, it’s likely Kyler Murray must have his biggest game of the year through the air.
Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Cardinals 24
Buccaneers vs. Saints
Spread: Buccaneers -3
Total: 42.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have become a complete offense over the past few weeks. Rachaad White ran for at least 80 yards in four of his last five games. Before that stretch, the Buccaneers had the worst rushing offense for a season and a half. To improve matters, Baker Mayfield is coming off his best two-game stretch of the year, if not his career. Tampa is in the driver’s seat in the NFC South.
The New Orleans Saints are one of the most disappointing teams in professional football. They have failed to capitalize on the league’s easiest schedule. Defensively, New Orleans has had a few rough outings against top-10 offenses over the past two months. Otherwise, it has been a solid group.
To beat the Buccaneers, you have to throw the ball against them. Derek Carr has thrown for more than 300 yards six times this season. He has the potential to succeed against the Buccaneers' pass defense. Even if he does, the big question is, will New Orleans finish drives? If it doesn't, it could lose to Tampa for the second time this season.
Score Prediction: Saints 23, Buccaneers 20
Bears vs. Falcons
Spread: Bears -3
Total: 38
The Chicago Bears won four of their last six, but they are two or three plays away from being 6-0 in that stretch. Chicago’s ascending defense drove most of that success. They’ll host Atlanta’s extremely volatile offense on a cold Sunday in Chicago.
The Atlanta Falcons have a talented roster on both sides of the ball, but they played musical chairs at quarterback. Taylor Heinicke is in the midst of his second run as Atlanta’s starting quarterback. If Heinicke plays a clean game while getting the ball in the hands of Atlanta’s three blue-chip skill players, the Falcons can keep their playoff hopes alive.
If they don’t, Chicago is a similarly talented team with a better defense and a more capable quarterback. The Bears have more paths to victory in this contest.
Score Prediction: Bears 23, Falcons 16
Jaguars vs. Panthers
Spread: Jaguars -7
Total: 38
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ four-game losing streak has put them in danger of missing the playoffs. Trevor Lawrence has played through an ankle injury for weeks. Now, he also has a throwing shoulder issue. The seven-point line indicates that sportsbooks expect Lawrence to play. If he’s a full go, Jacksonville can win by distance. If he’s limited, the Jaguars will still likely win, but Carolina has a better shot of keeping it close. If C.J. Beathard is forced into action, the Carolina Panthers can win outright.
Bryce Young is coming off his best game as a pro last week, throwing for more than 300 passing yards for the first time. The Jaguars’ pass defense has been torched by Jake Browning, Joe Flacco and Baker Mayfield in recent weeks. Young has a greater-than-normal ceiling in this matchup.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Panthers 17
Seahawks vs. Steelers
Spread: Seahawks -3.5
Total: 41.5
This is a matchup between two highly motivated teams with successful head coaches, solid defenses and talented skill groups. Geno Smith is more capable than Mason Rudolph, but both teams suffer from volatile quarterback play. Smith should be the difference, but he’s had several average or worse performances this season.
If the Pittsburgh Steelers win, their defense likely drives that outcome. If Pittsburgh wins, the Seattle Seahawks must seriously consider changing their quarterback situation before next season.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 17, Steelers 16
Chiefs vs. Bengals
Spread: Chiefs -7
Total: 44
Typically, this matchup would be a natural bounce-back spot for the Kansas City Chiefs. Unfortunately, the Chiefs’ offense is broken to the point that last week’s game may be the worst of Patrick Mahomes’ career.
The Cincinnati Bengals and Chiefs have played each other four times over the past two seasons. They are familiar with each other like division rivals would be. Bengals’ defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo had held Mahomes below expectations when Kansas City’s offense was at its peak. If the Bengals are going to keep this close, that will likely come through their defense rather than Jake Browning's offense.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 20, Bengals 13
Broncos vs. Chargers
Spread: Broncos -3
Total: 37.5
Sean Payton benched Russell Wilson in favor of Jared Stidham, potentially marking the end of Wilson’s tenure with the Denver Broncos. Stidham had two starts with the Raiders last year. He played well in one game, a high-scoring matchup against the 49ers. In the other matchup, Las Vegas lost to the Chiefs 31-13. Expect similar volatility from Stidham over the next two weeks, with a lower ceiling than he showed against San Francisco last season.
After being embarrassed by the Raiders, the Los Angeles Chargers gave Buffalo a legitimate scare last Saturday night. Denver’s defense has underwhelmed the last two weeks, but it has the raw materials to shut down Easton Stick’s offense.
If it started Wilson, Denver had numerous paths to victory in this matchup. Instead, this contest boils down to which backup quarterback plays the cleaner game.
Score Prediction: Broncos 17, Chargers 13
Sunday Night Football
Vikings vs. Packers
Spread: Vikings -1.5
Total: 46
The Green Bay Packers are on an unorthodox run right now. They beat the Lions and the Chiefs before losing to the Giants and Buccaneers. Then, last week, they gave up 30 points to the Panthers. Jordan Love has had an encouraging first year as a starting quarterback, but Green Bay’s defense forces him to carry games. That could be a problem against Brian Flores’ defense.
On the bright side for Green Bay’s struggling defense, they face Nick Mullens this week. Mullens had 411 passing yards against the Lions last week, but he also threw four interceptions. Mullens is a volatile backup quarterback who will be without tight end T.J. Hockenson for the rest of the season. The Minnesota Vikings still have plenty of talent on offense, but Mullens can’t be relied upon.
Score Prediction: Packers 21, Vikings 20
