Betting
1/11/24
7 min read
NFL Wild-Card Weekend: Expert Picks, Predictions for Every Game
The playoffs are finally here, which means we will provide analysis and predictions for all six Wild Card games. Let’s dive right in.
Saturday Slate
Texans vs. Browns
Spread: Texans +2.5
Total: 44.5
The Cleveland Browns are a dangerous team that beat the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens this season. The Browns’ defense has driven most of the success, but Joe Flacco went on a 4-1 run down the stretch and threw for more than 300 yards in each of those four victories.
That’s a positive, but Cleveland’s offense has relied entirely on a quarterback who will turn 39 next week. Expecting Flacco to carry an offense through the playoffs is a massive ask.
The Houston Texans’ ability to force a few turnovers is one of the keys to this game. What C.J. Stroud does with his limited supporting cast against Cleveland’s premium pass defense is another.
The Browns allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers and the fewest to tight ends. Stroud is already a dangerous man to bet against, but his pass-catchers will struggle to create separation in this matchup. Ultimately, the quarterback who plays the cleaner game likely walks away with a win.
Score Prediction: Texans 21, Browns 17
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
Spread: Chiefs -4.5
Total: 44
If you’ve paid any attention to the NFL this season, you know Patrick Mahomes’ offense has underwhelmed. Despite that, Mahomes is still the scariest player in the postseason, as his Kansas City Chiefs have played in each of the past five AFC Championship games. Their pedigree in big games is unrivaled.
The Chiefs will be a tough out as long as Kansas City’s defense continues to play at a high level.
Injuries have derailed the Miami Dolphins' season, particularly on defense, where the team could be without as many as seven starters. In particular, the Dolphins will be without their blue-chip edge rush duo, and cornerback Xavien Howard is currently doubtful.
That puts the pressure on Tua Tagovailoa’s offense, which is dealing with its own injury woes.
Speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are on the injury report. Hill has played through an ankle sprain, but his production has taken a dip. Waddle has missed the past two games. With Miami's pair of speed demons, the team is dangerous even with its injury-ravaged defense. But if Hill and Waddle are limited, the Dolphins have a narrow path to victory in Kansas City.
Frigid temperatures with mild winds are expected in Kansas City, which could negatively impact both team’s passing attacks. It’s also a major departure for a warm-weather team like the Dolphins.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 20
Sunday Slate
Bills vs. Steelers
Spread: Bills -10
Total: 36
The Buffalo Bills are one of the league's hottest teams, winning their past five games and beating the Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys and Dolphins during that stretch. Josh Allen is one of the few quarterbacks in the league who can carry an offense. Turnovers can be a problem for Allen, but he gives Buffalo’s offense an enormous ceiling. RB James Cook has a solid matchup here because Pittsburgh allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to running backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have an uphill battle on multiple fronts in this contest. Pittsburgh is 3-0 with Mason Rudolph as its starter, but the Steelers only scored 17 points in a must-win game against the Ravens’ backups last week.
Expect the Steelers to continue to lean on their running back duo — Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren — for as long as they can. If Rudolph struggles early, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Kenny Pickett is brought on in relief duty.
The biggest issue for Pittsburgh is that it will be without T.J. Watt, arguably the best defensive player in the league. Last season, the Steelers were a much different team while Watt was sidelined. His absence gives Pittsburgh an even narrower path to victory in Buffalo.
Weather is an X-factor for this contest, as significant wind could greatly impact both offenses. Right now, 25 mph sustained winds are in the forecast, which is the area where wind can be a major factor.
In 2021, we saw a severe wind game in Buffalo against the New England Patriots, where neither side had much success in the air. The Patriots threw three passes in that matchup. If this game has severe wind, it could benefit Pittsburgh, given its run game and how it will reduce what Allen can do through the air.
Score Prediction: Bills 17, Steelers 10
Cowboys vs. Packers
Spread: Cowboys -7.5
Total: 50.5
Dak Prescott had an MVP-caliber season, but the Dallas Cowboys’ offense has become one-dimensional and reliant on CeeDee Lamb. The Green Bay Packers’ defense has enough talent to be a problem for Dallas, but the unit rarely plays to its potential.
The Packers' defense allowed the 11th-most rushing yards to running backs. Tony Pollard had a disappointing season for Dallas, but that would all be forgotten with a big game against Green Bay.
Jordan Love finished his first season as a starting quarterback with the second-most touchdown passes in the league. However, Love’s 32 passing touchdowns would have been fourth-best last season and 10th-most the year before. Regardless, he had an encouraging season, and he brings more ceiling to Green Bay’s offense than most would have expected.
Aaron Jones missed six games but ran for more than 100 yards in each of Green Bay’s last three games.
The Packers are a young, inconsistent team, but if they play their best game, they could give Dallas a scare, if not more.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 26, Packers 20
Lions vs. Rams
Spread: Lions -3
Total: 51.5
Sunday Night Football is a great game where Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff each face the team that drafted them. The Detroit Lions have one of the league’s most well-rounded offenses. They have a top-10 offensive line, one of the league’s best running back duos and a highly capable passing attack. They are also well-coached; offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will be a coveted head coaching candidate this offseason.
The Los Angeles Rams are only a league-average defense, but the unit has overachieved, given the limitations of its roster. As long as Detroit can keep Goff clean, which it should be able to, the Lions’ offense has a big ceiling in this matchup. Rookie standout TE Sam LaPorta will miss this contest after suffering a season-ending knee injury in the regular-season finale.
After the Rams' Week 10 bye, they went 7-1. That lone loss came to the Ravens during an overtime shootout in Baltimore. Sean McVay is one of the best coaches in the league, and Stafford is a Hall of Fame–caliber quarterback.
Los Angeles won the Super Bowl two years ago. The team has lost significant talent on defense since then, but you could argue its offense is better now than it was then.
The Lions have been excellent against the run this season, but their pass defense has been disastrous down the stretch. As an example, Detroit played Minnesota twice over the last three weeks. The Lions gave up 807 passing yards to Nick Mullens. That is not a typo.
The Rams are a worst-case scenario wild-card opponent for Detroit. If the Lions’ defense doesn’t take a big step forward, the Rams can walk away with a win here.
Score Prediction: Rams 27, Lions 24
Monday Night
Buccaneers vs. Eagles
Spread: Buccaneers +3
Total: 44
This matchup has sneaky shootout potential because both teams finished the year with bottom-four pass defenses. Additionally, both offensive lines can realistically mitigate the opponent's pass rush. Ultimately, this game will boil down to how well Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield play.
The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-11 back in Week 3, but Philadelphia is a free-falling team that lost five of its last six games. The Eagles have been inconsistent in every aspect during that stretch. They still have one of the league’s most talented offenses, but they should be viewed as a volatile, underachieving group entering this matchup.
The Buccaneers won five of their last six games, which was enough to win the league's worst division. The best wins Tampa Bay had all season came against the New Orleans Saints, Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Mayfield played some of the best football of his career down the stretch. If the Buccaneers are going to win this contest, Mayfield has to shred Philadelphia’s liability of a secondary. Tampa Bay has the raw materials to walk away with a win, but this contest primarily concerns which version of the Eagles shows up Monday night.
Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Buccaneers 23
