NFL Analysis
10/4/24
10 min read
NFL's 5 Biggest Surprises at Quarter Mark of 2024 Season
It’s hard to believe that the first month of the NFL season has already come and gone. While we shouldn’t overreact too much to what happens in these first four games, there are a few players and teams that have stood out.
Here are some of the biggest surprises in the league after the quarter mark of the season:
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2024 NFL Season's Biggest Surprises
Jayden Daniels' MVP Campaign
No one is surprised that Jayden Daniels looks good already. He was the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft for a reason and was the Heisman Trophy winner last year. He is one of the most experienced rookie quarterbacks in NFL history, starting 55 games in college and throwing 1,438 passes. However, no one, and I mean no one, could have envisioned this start for Daniels.
The Commanders are 3-1 and suddenly a real contender in the NFC East. The reason is that Daniels might be the league MVP through the first four weeks. He leads the NFL in completion percentage (82.1%) and is averaging a whopping 8.5 yards per attempt.
Daniels has thrown just one interception but has also added 218 yards on the ground and four touchdowns. His numbers are similar to those of Lamar Jackson during his first MVP season in 2019.
It's not just the raw numbers that are impressive. He's making big-time throws to help the Commanders win games. In some ways, it's hard to believe just how good he's looked in the first month of the season because there are only a few quarterbacks in the entire NFL that are capable of making this throw:
Washington is averaging 30.3 points per game and has punted just four times in four games. Those types of stats are usually only reserved for Hall of Fame locks like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Yet, Daniels is doing it in his first season in the NFL.
He already looks like a superstar and has turned a team that won just four games in 2023 into a legit contender in the NFC. It’s hard to be more surprised about anything else coming out of the first month of the season than Daniels and the Commanders.
The Upstart Minnesota Vikings
It was quite the offseason for the Minnesota Vikings for a lot of reasons. But when the news hit that rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy would miss the 2024 season with a knee injury, it sure seemed like all hope was lost in Minnesota. It looked even worse when you saw their early-season schedule with games against the 49ers, Texans, and Packers in the first month.
Still, the Vikings are 4-0 and are one of the NFL's most fun teams. A big reason for their success has been the play of Sam Darnold, the former No. 3 overall pick from the 2018 NFL Draft. Darnold has bounced around the league in the last few years but has finally found the right home in Minnesota.
Through four weeks, Darnold leads the NFL in passer rating (118.9), and he’s thrown a league-high 11 touchdowns. No other quarterback has more than eight passing touchdowns going into Week 5.
Darnold is playing the best football of his career, and he’s done so without T.J. Hockenson (knee) and with Jordan Addison (ankle) missing time. He looks confident, poised, and accurate, which hasn’t always been the case.
It also helps that he is playing with a defense that has shut down opposing offenses so that he doesn’t feel pressured to score on every possession. Brian Flores has been one of the biggest winners in the first month of the season, as his defense has been as dominant as any unit in the league.
The Vikings' schedule gets a lot easier in the next few months, but they have a tough Week 5 game against the Jets in London. If they can steal that one, they will have a real chance to become the No. 1 seed in the NFC this season, as 12-13 wins are certainly possible.
Considering most experts picked Minnesota to finish last in the NFC North, that would be quite the turnaround.
Kansas City's Offense Is a SNoozer
No one is surprised that the Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0. Well, let me rephrase that. They probably aren’t surprised, but their early-season schedule has been a difficult one, with games against the Ravens, Bengals, Falcons, and Chargers. They’ve played arguably the league's toughest schedule in the first month, but we have come to expect the Chiefs to win a majority of these contests.
What is surprising is just how bad their offense is this season. You would think that, with Andy Reid and a healthy Patrick Mahomes, it would be impossible for the Chiefs to have an average offense, but here we are.
The Chiefs are 14th in the NFL in points per game (23.0 PPG), and frankly, their offense is boring to watch. The only “fun” part is when Mahomes airs it down the field to Xavier Worthy. While they’ve hit on a few deep passes, it hasn’t been frequent enough to make this offense great.
The Chiefs are expected to be without Rashee Rice (knee) for most, if not all, of the 2024 season after suffering an injury in Week 4. He was, by far, their top receiver, and he was the player that helped them move the chains consistently. Without him, it will be a struggle for Kansas City to move the ball against the elite defenses.
Kansas City is still the favorite to win the Super Bowl, but it isn't that enjoyable to watch right now. The Chiefs must lean on their defense and lackluster rushing attack to win games.
Yes, they’ve won the Super Bowl with bad receivers before, but this will be the greatest challenge yet. Don’t be surprised if this offense takes a significant step back with Rice out of the picture.
Jacksonville's Epic Collapse
I’m not sure anyone expected the Jacksonville Jaguars to challenge the Kansas City Chiefs atop the AFC this season. However, they did have the second-best odds to win the AFC South, and there was some sleeper buzz coming into this season.
It’s not hard to understand why, with Trevor Lawrence going into Year 4 and with all of the weapons they have on offense. This should be a good team. Yet, they are the NFL's only winless team.
It’s not all Lawrence’s fault, but he certainly hasn’t played great to start the year. He has a passer rating of just 78.9, which ranks 26th among all qualifying quarterbacks. His QBR is better (44.4, 23rd in the NFL), but it’s still not good enough for a team that gave him a monster extension this offseason.
There are several highly-paid quarterbacks who are struggling this year, so it’s not fair to put all of the blame on Lawrence. Still, there is no denying that he needs to play better.
He’s averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt and is only completing 53.3 percent of his passes. What’s the most discouraging is that it appears he has regressed. There are a number of times when he has open receivers and just misses them. That has to get better if the Jaguars want to have any chance of salvaging this season.
As bad as Lawrence and the offense have played, the defense has been way worse. And it’s not even close.
Jacksonville has allowed 27.3 points per game, the third-most in the league. They have yet to record an interception and have surrendered the second-most passing yards (1,091) in the NFL. That is unacceptable for a team that has spent this many picks and resources on its defense.
At this point, it seems like it’s only a matter of time before the Jaguars fire Doug Pederson. They’ve lost nine of their last 10 games and most of them haven’t been competitive.
This team is way too talented to be this bad, and it seems like Pederson has lost the locker room. The Jaguars had the best record in the AFC after 11 games last year and now are arguably the worst team in the league. That is quite a fall in less than 12 months.
The 49ers 'Other' Star Receiver
If you were to look at the NFL's receiving leaders after four names, you wouldn't be surprised to see the names at the top. Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, and DK Metcalf are all in the top five, with rookie phenom Malik Nabers also in that mix.
Those are all talented receivers who are the clear-cut No. 1 options on their respective offenses.
However, the one name that stands out the most inside the top five is Jauan Jennings, who has the fourth-most receiving yards (364) in the NFL through four games. Going into the season, Jennings competed with rookie Ricky Pearsall for the No. 3 receiver job. However, after Pearsall suffered a gunshot wound just days before the season, Jennings was the clear third receiver in this offense.
What makes the 49ers unique is they have superstars all over the offense. George Kittle is one of the best receiving tight ends, and there might not be a better wide receiver duo than Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
Yet, Jennings has outproduced them all.
Samuel and Kittle have dealt with injuries during the season, each missing time. The 49ers haven't seen a drop in their offensive production because Jennings has stepped up to the challenge.
In the last two weeks, Jennings has recorded 263 receiving yards and has scored three touchdowns, as he's become the 49ers' de facto No. 1 receiver. He averages more than 17 yards per reception and has caught 21-of-27 targets this year.
It remains to be seen what his role will be once Samuel is fully healthy, but it would be hard to phase him out of the offense, considering how well he's played during the last few weeks.
Jennings has always been respected around the NFL, but no one expected him to produce numbers like this at this stage of his career. The fact that he's outproduced receivers like Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Ja'Marr Chase through the first month of the season is one of the coolest stories so far this year.
