NFL Analysis
11/24/24
5 min read
NFL's Big Bet on Star Running Backs Is Paying Off in 2024
After years of being an afterthought, running backs matter again in 2024.
A handful of teams opted to be aggressive spenders at the running back position in free agency this offseason, paying big money to veterans who may have previously been undervalued. Those moves have paid off for the Ravens, Eagles, and Packers, who have added workhorse running backs that have unlocked their offenses in Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs.
The 2024 season signals a change in the way teams value running backs, not just because of the money they make but also because of the value they bring to the field.
Running Backs Got Paid
The 2023 offseason featured debates about running back value, as Indianapolis Colts star Jonathan Taylor stayed out of training camp, waiting to be paid what he's worth.
This year's running backs didn't have to wait.
According to Spotrac, nearly $250 million was spent on running backs in free agency, with $120 million guaranteed at signing. This was the seventh-most money given to a position in free agency, ahead of spots like inside and outside linebacker.
That's a massive jump from previous years. Running backs got $145 million in 2023, $95 million in 2022, and just $54 million in 2021.
Part of that is because of the constantly increasing salary cap, but the relative positional value has steadily increased as well. It was outside of the top 10 of the highest-paid positions in the previous three offseasons but shot up to seventh in 2024.
Running Backs Are Stars Again
As it stands, the top three running backs in rushing were all free agents who switched teams this offseason.
Heading into Sunday, the top three in rushing were Henry, Barkley, and Jacobs, with a combined 3,160 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns. Jacobs added to those tallies with a massive game in Green Bay's blowout win against the 49ers, rushing for 106 yards and three more scores on 26 carries and getting off to a strong start on the opening drive with some big runs.
— now here’s a guy (@WowThatsUnreal) November 24, 2024
Other running backs have also broken out on new teams this season. J.K. Dobbins finally looks healthy in his first year with the Chargers, while Aaron Jones continues to break off chunks of yards in the NFC North but for the Vikings. Even Tony Pollard, who is playing on a struggling Titans team, has had a strong season.
All of these free agent running backs are near the top of the league in yards after contact per rush and runs of 10-plus yards this season.
This chart may also explain why this free agent class of running backs was paid so much money because all of these veterans have proven to have plenty left in the tank for new teams.
The New York Giants will continue kicking themselves for letting Barkley walk in free agency. The thought process in not re-signing Barkley was well documented in the HBO Hard Knocks offseason series and continues to look worse with every play that he makes for their bitter NFC East rival, the Eagles.
According to Pro Football Focus, Barkley is tied for fourth in the NFL with 46 first downs generated on the ground and second with 465 yards generated on breakaway runs of 15 or more yards.
Rushes of 10+ yards this season…
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) November 22, 2024
1. Saquon Barkley (26)
2. Lamar Jackson (24)
3. James Conner, Derrick Henry (23)
5. Dobbins, Jacobs, Gibbs (22) pic.twitter.com/p3siNHDOt3
The recent trend of free agent running backs unlocking offenses started with David Montgomery on the Detroit Lions, who continues to find the end zone with regularity. Now, it's becoming a trend for successful football teams to find a star running back and pay them.
In fact, according to FTN Fantasy, the top four teams in rushing DVOA all feature running backs who were acquired in free agency (Lions, Ravens, Packers, and Eagles).
Running backs matter again, and they're about to matter a whole lot more.
The future of the Position
While running backs are getting paid, all eyes will be on the potential next superstar at the position in Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty.
Jeanty is having one of the greatest seasons in college football history, rushing for 2,062 yards and 27 touchdowns in only 11 games. He's a certain finalist for the Heisman Trophy, even if two-way superstar Travis Hunter could win it at the end of the year.
There's a strong possibility that Jeanty winds up being a top-10 pick. There have been arguments against drafting a running back in the first round, but Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs have worked to debunk those arguments in recent years.
As the only two running backs taken in the first round of the last three drafts, both are having terrific starts to their careers. Gibbs has already eclipsed 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, while Robinson also has back-to-back seasons with more than 1,000 combined rushing and receiving yards.
Sending Jameson Williams in cheetah motion to wrap block the edge for Jahmyr Gibbs to swing onto a Rainbow Road boost strip pic.twitter.com/0EWBEj2Cto
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) November 23, 2024
Jeanty isn't the only prominent running back who is likely going pro. Other names like Iowa's Kaleb Johnson, North Carolina's Omarion Hampton, Oklahoma State's Ollie Gordon II, and another dozen prospects could become stars at the NFL level in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Meanwhile, other running backs could secure long-term contracts next offseason after the deals that the likes of Henry and Barkley got this year. James Conner could be in line for a big payday as he's on pace for his third straight season with at least 1,000 scrimmage yards.
Other names potentially getting paid include Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, and J.K. Dobbins. All of these upcoming free agents should be saying thank you to the 2024 class because they've helped secure serious money for the next wave of free agent running backs.
