NFL Analysis
9/3/24
7 min read
NFL's Most Pivotal Position Units Entering 2024 Season
Each year, we focus on the best teams and units before the regular season. Still, certain units will change the ceiling or floor of these rosters based on their performance.
Let’s take a look at some of the units around the league that could have the biggest impact on how the year plays out.
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NFL's Most Pivotal Position Units
Houston Texans Offensive Line
Per FTN, no team had more adjusted games lost on the offensive line in the AGL database than the 2023 Houston Texans. Houston had five offensive line combinations play at least 100 snaps together, tied for the most in the league. The most common combination played together on just 20.2 percent of offensive snaps.
The pieced-together line held up enough in pass protection, and C.J. Stroud managed the pocket enough to keep his aggressive streak, but the line could not run block. The problem with that is how often the Texans wanted to use early-down runs to set things up later in the game.
Houston was 24th in EPA per rush on early-down run attempts, which often put the offense behind the sticks. It wore on the offense as the season went on. Stroud averaged 0.16 EPA per play on third down before Houston’s bye but just -0.13 post-bye. His average depth of target rose more than two yards because he was searching for big plays.
The run game does not have to be great during the 2024 season, but if the offensive line can be a bit more consistent and not completely negative, it would drastically improve the situations the offense was in for much of 2023.
Detroit Lions Secondary
This is the second straight year the Detroit Lions' secondary is one of the league's most important units. Before the 2023 season, the Lions tried to improve the secondary. Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson were brought in, and Brian Branch was drafted in the second round.
That was supposed to reshape the secondary and allow defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to be more aggressive in coverage and blitzing. But Moseley got hurt in Week 1, and Gardner-Johnson got hurt in Week 2. That left the secondary thin nearly from the start of the season.
The hope this year is that the new reinforcements will be better and will allow the Lions to have a deeper secondary. Detroit traded for Carlton Davis, who will take one outside corner spot. The other will go to first-round pick Terrion Arnold. Arnold was one of the best man coverage corners in the draft class, which should play well in Detroit’s system.
Holding up in coverage would help the pressure be more impactful. The Lions were third in pressure rate last season but just 22nd in sack rate because opposing offenses did not have a problem getting the ball out when pressure came. Detroit was 31st in EPA per play when pressure was created.
Buffalo Bills Pass Catchers
The Buffalo Bills are taking the Kansas City approach to get cheaper at wide receiver with a superhero quarterback. After moving on from Stefon Diggs, the Bills have a receiving trio of Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and rookie Keon Coleman.
Samuel might miss time with a toe injury to start the season, which could put some more pressure on Shakir and Coleman. Shakir was one of the league’s most efficient and explosive receivers, however on limited snaps, but he has the traits to keep that type of production with a bigger role.
While the Bills figure out their wide receiver situation, the tight ends will become a bigger part of the offense. Expect Buffalo to use more 12 personnel, especially early in the season.
Last season, the Bills only used 12 personnel on 17.6 percent of plays, which ranked 21st. Part of that was due to the time Dawson Knox missed, but it was still limited when he and Dalton Kincaid were available.
The Bills' biggest hurdle might be finding the correct way to get all of these players on the field at the same time while playing to their strengths. All three receivers profile better in the slot, and Kincaid can also be a more useful weapon from that alignment.
If the Bills can figure out the best way to use their pass-catching personnel quickly, they should be right back up as one of the league’s best and most efficient offenses.
Green Bay Packers Entire Defense
There might not be a more important unit in the league that could swing the season than the Green Bay Packers defense.
The Packers went to the playoffs last season with an incredible offense and a defense that fell below expectations, finishing 23rd in EPA per play. Green Bay finally moved on from Joe Barry and brought in Jeff Hafley, who is installing more single-high and aggressive coverages, allowing the defensive front to play faster.
If this defense gets going early and plays to the talent that many observers believe is there, then the Packers could become one of the NFL's best teams, sporting a top offense and an effective defense.
So much about Green Bay’s previous defense revolved around light boxes and off coverage. Opposing offenses took advantage of that passive approach. Per Nex Gen Stats, the Packers allowed the third-highest average separation on targets in 2023.
With the improvement at safety with Xavier McKinney and Javon Bullard, the Packers should have a better plan in the back-end that will allow the corners to play more aggressively. Green Bay was just 23rd in turnovers forced per drive and 31st in interceptions per drive at just 4.0 percent.
Any improvement at any level of the defense would be huge for the Packers.
Los Angeles Rams Defensive Line
There might not be anything more difficult for an NFL team to do this season than replace Aaron Donald. Of course, nothing can fully replace Donald’s impact, so the Los Angeles Rams are going with a volume approach.
Last season, the Rams struck gold with rookie production from Kobie Turner and Byron Young, who will play expanded roles in 2024. Alongside the second-year players, the Rams drafted the Florida State duo of Jared Verse and Brandon Fiske, hoping their chemistry continues in the NFL.
The Rams were only 23rd in sack rate last season with Donald, so the hope is a more consistent pass rush from across the line will allow more pressure to get home.
That should help a second level that is now without Ernest Jones, who is one of the league’s better blitzing linebackers. More pressure would also give a little more margin of error for a retooled secondary that is relying on a number of veterans like Tre’Davious White and Darious Williams at cornerback.
