Expert Analysis
3/8/24
10 min read
Nobody Does Free Agency Like Kirk Cousins — What His Last Experience Tells Us About This One
Quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins don’t hit free agency. At a time when there's nothing more valuable to an NFL team than quality quarterback play, above-average quarterbacks aren't freely available.
If that type of quarterback is moved, it’s typically in a trade for a significant haul. We’ve seen it recently with Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson — to differing levels of success. But even giving up assets in trades takes some teams out of the running.
When this type of player does hit free agency, though? Well, just look at the teams that lined up to recruit Derek Carr when he was a free agent last offseason. And that’s Derek Carr.
Free agency just isn't an avenue for quality quarterback play, especially for contenders. Yet here we are with Cousins entering true free agency for the second time in his career.
How Cousins' 2024 Free Agency Might Shape Up
Lessons from Cousins' Last Experience
Cousins, who will turn 36 in August while coming off a torn Achilles, is still a desired quarterback and a better player now than he was when he initially hit free agency back in 2018.
In 2018, Cousins had just come off two seasons on the franchise tag with Washington. He played in 2016 on his first tag at $19.95 million, which was 12.3 percent of the cap at the time. With his second tag in 2017, Cousins played for $23.94 million, which was 13.5 percent of the cap.
Those numbers seem small now, but the present-day equivalent of those cap percentages based on the 2024 figure would be $31.4 million and $34.5 million. The cap increase has been drastic over the past decade.
After Cousins' two seasons on the tag, a third would have been for $32.3 million, 18.2 percent of the 2018 salary cap because the escalator for a third tag would be 135 percent of the previous year’s salary.
In 2024, the $38.3 million quarterback franchise tag is 15 percent of the cap.
Washington could extend Cousins or let him leave in free agency. On Jan. 30, 2018, the team made a preemptive strike and agreed to a trade for Alex Smith. The trade was processed when the league year started on March 14. The trade for Smith, Kendall Fuller, and a third-round pick ensured Cousins would be a free agent.
When Cousins hit the market, he eventually signed with the Minnesota Vikings on a fully guaranteed, three-year, $84 million contract, making him the NFL's highest-paid player. But that deal wasn’t the highest offer for him in free agency.
In an NFL video that highlighted Cousins’ path through free agency, it was revealed that the New York Jets made a fully guaranteed, three-year, $90 million offer. Still, Cousins wanted to use that to raise the Vikings from an initial $25 million per year offer. Eventually, that worked — Minnesota's offer went from $75 million to the $84 million deal that was signed.
In the video mentioned above, Cousins stated how important the structure of the deal was to get a fully guaranteed contract:
"I think as important as the overall dollars are in a contract. I think, in my situation, structure is as important if not more important. We want the money to be fully guaranteed. My preference would be to get a fully guaranteed contract or to stick to one-year deals."
The way that deal was discussed publicly at the time was it would change how quarterbacks negotiated future deals. But that never fully materialized. Since Cousins’s first deal in 2018, only one quarterback has gotten a fully guaranteed, multi-year contract — also under unique (and exponentially worse) circumstances.
COusins' Markert Is Fascinating
Last offseason, Lamar Jackson was on a crusade to find a fully guaranteed contract. Still, because he never actually hit the open market — he was hit with a non-exclusive franchise tag that allowed other teams to make an offer but would give the Baltimore Ravens a chance to match or receive two first-round picks as compensation — he only received 52 percent of his extension fully guaranteed at signing.
Below are the most recent multiyear quarterback deals since Cousins signed with Minnesota.
With a year left on his first contract in Minnesota, Cousins signed a two-year extension that kept him with the team through 2022. Then, with a year left on that deal, he signed a one-year extension for 2023, which had a no-tag clause to ensure he would again hit unrestricted free agency. That brings us to his current situation.
Cousins' market will be fascinating due to his current status, both as an older and injured quarterback.
Cousins has improved during the past two seasons under coach Kevin O’Connell. Earlier in his career, he relied heavily on play-action. Even at the start of his Vikings tenure, Cousins was a quarterback heavily influenced by his surroundings.
But in the past few seasons, he hasn’t needed play-action as much, even as he led the league in play-action rate during the 2023 season. Some of his best work is when he can work more out of a straight dropback game. In 2023, Cousins had his highest aDOT and yards per attempt on non-play-action passes with Minnesota. Plus, his rate of inaccurate passes has dropped in the past four seasons.
Cousins held onto the ball longer to allow things to develop; even with decreased overall mobility, his pocket management improved. He had the second-lowest pressure-to-sack rate among all quarterbacks on straight dropbacks, per TruMedia.
If there’s a silver lining regarding an aging quarterback coming off an Achilles injury, it helps to be one who already mastered the art of maneuvering in the pocket without relying much on escapability. Last season, Cousins had the fourth-highest rate of dropbacks ending in the pocket among all quarterbacks (89.7 percent).
There was a toughness that came along with that because he was under constant pressure and was hit on the third-highest rate of dropbacks among quarterbacks. Given some of the hits Cousins took, it’s a slight surprise his injury was a non-contact one.
All indications are that Cousins' recovery is going well.
Vikings Want Cousins in Minnesota
When Cousins hit the market in 2018, he was already entering his age-30 season. But there was still some projection needed for what Cousins could bring to his next team. At 36, it’s a bit of a different situation, though the known is arguably better. Cousins can come in and give borderline top-10 quarterback play to whatever team signs him. That’s incredibly valuable.
Yet, perhaps the biggest difference between this trip to free agency and the last is that Cousins’ current team wants him back. O’Connell has been vocal about his support for a Cousins return to Minnesota.
My feelings on Kirk Cousins haven't wavered in two years. If anything, they're stronger now.
Vikings Head Coach Kevin O'Connell at this year's NFL Scouting Combine
He continued: “Kirk Cousins knows how I feel about him. I hold no secrets there. He knows how the Minnesota Vikings feel about him. I believe Kirk wants to be a Viking, and we’re going to work to try to make that the outcome. Any time you go into situations like this, it is a negotiation, (and) you’re trying to come to an agreement that works for both sides."
As the time before free agency opens shrinks, the probability of a Cousins return to Minnesota lessens. Cousins’ contract voids on March 13, the first day of the new league year, which would accelerate a dead cap hit of $28.5 million onto the Vikings' books due to the void years in the contract. Once that date comes, that $28.5 million hit would be charged to the team whether Cousins re-signs or not. That means if he does, Minnesota would take on the dead cap charge and the cost of his new contract.
There's still time to get a deal done, though.
The legal tampering period opens Monday, allowing Cousins to get concrete offers from other teams and compare that with the Vikings' offer.
Of course, the question is: How competitive is the Vikings' offer? Minnesota general manager Kwesi Odofo-Mensah reiterated the desire to keep Cousins. He also stated there’s a line for each side where a deal doesn’t make sense.
"Kirk, the player, is somebody that, as we saw what he does to this team, I thought we were playing really good football before he got injured, and it's the most important position in sports,” Odofo-Mesah said at the combine. “Now, ultimately, it always comes down to, ‘Can you find an agreement that works for both sides?’ and all those things. ... It's certainly my intention to have him back here.
“At the end of the day, it's, we have our interests. He has his. And we get to the table and see if we can figure out a creative solution and how to meet in the middle.”
Where Will Kirk Play in 2024?
So where does that put the market for Cousins?
Like his last trip to free agency, multiple suitors could drive his price and bring a potential deal closer to his demands.
The Atlanta Falcons are the team rumored to have the most interest. New coach Raheem Morris was on the defensive staff in Washington from 2012-14, and the Falcons are one of the few teams with a clear quarterback need and pieces in place on offense that could use an instant boost from a veteran quarterback.
Morris wasn’t shy about his feelings about how Atlanta's lack of answers at the position affected them last season.
"If we had better quarterback play, I may not be standing here," Morris said in Indianapolis.
The Las Vegas Raiders could also be a destination, but there could be a few flaws in that path. If Cousins wants to join a contender, it would be tough to rationalize Las Vegas and the AFC West for a team that ranked 21st in DVOA last season. The Raiders also don’t have a heavy cash flow, which could complicate things if Cousins pushes for another fully guaranteed contract
NFL rules state that guaranteed money from a contract must be put in escrow. While that's an outdated rule that protected contracts at a time when teams didn't always have the cash to back them up, it can still affect some teams on bigger deals.
Cousins is entering a quarterback market where $40 million per year could be the floor for a good starting quarterback. That’s what Daniel Jones got last offseason — and he has a generous definition of good.
Unlike last time, Cousins won’t reset the quarterback market with so many young quarterbacks on deals that exceed $50 million per year. But he could still be in a market of his own if he’s looking for a two- or three-year deal. Could we see him get a fully guaranteed, two-year, $80 million contract?
The Falcons balked at a fully guaranteed contract the past two times they had a chance. They were the first team to publicly proclaim they wouldn't pursue Jackson, so that could be something Atlanta is hesitant to do. But with a shorter deal, guaranteeing the contract could be less daunting.
If you read into the quotes from Odofo-Mensah, that seems to be a sticking point for the Vikings, too.
The last time Cousins had a better offer, he used it to get Minnesota closer to his asking price. As he said, the structure was more important than the overall money. We could see something like that again, but it would need to happen before the league year opens Wednesday.
There will be plenty of intrigue until then.
Quarterbacks like Cousins don’t hit free agency often. And no one does free agency quite like Cousins.
