NFL Analysis
August 29, 2024
22 min read
Over-Under Predictions For Every Team Entering the 2024 NFL Season
We’re a week away from the start of the NFL regular season. With it so close, it’s time to get a look at how we feel about these teams entering 2024.
To predict each team's record, I played around with some season simulators on Playoff Predictor and noted the results. Those unscientific win totals, plus deeper analysis and DVOA projections, help shape our view of how we expect these teams to perform.
This is mostly a fun preseason exercise, and definitely not gambling advice, to get a read on these teams before the season begins.
All stats courtesy of TruMedia unless noted otherwise. All lines from DraftKings.
>> Read More: Latest Power Rankings Heading Into Season
2024 NFL Win-Loss Predictions
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: 9.5 (over -145, under +120)
Record prediction: Over
Despite this roster's turnover, the key elements are still in place. Josh Allen is one of the league’s best quarterbacks, finishing fifth in EPA per play last season, and the offense has enough talent to be one of the better units in the league.
Sean McDermott has been a good defensive coach who has kept the defense as a top unit.
The Buffalo Bills have the hardest projected schedule by DVOA, but this is still a good team that will be in the playoff picture at the end of the season.
Miami Dolphins 9.5 (over -135, under +115)
Record prediction: Over
There are still issues that will need to be sorted at the end of the season when the Miami Dolphins play better teams and defenses sell out to stop the quick-hitting passing offense. Until then, this is still a great team that should be even better on defense.
Miami’s early stretch of the season is fairly tame, with games against the Jaguars, Bills, Seahawks, Titans, and Patriots before a bye. That should allow the defense to gel a bit and potentially get some of the injured pass rushers back into the lineup, which should help set that unit up for the rest of the season.
New England Patriots 4.5 (over -135, under +110)
Record prediction: Over
It’s easy to look at the New England Patriots and think this will be one of the worst teams in the league. It’s not out of the realm of possibility. However, a 4.5 total is so low for a team that should still have a good defense, even with the losses of Matthew Judon and Christian Barmore.
The Patriots blitzed at the seventh-highest rate in the preseason, which could help manufacture some more pressure without the studs on the defensive line.
This could also be an offense that improves during the course of the season while Drake Maye eventually takes over for Jacoby Brissett.
New York Jets 10.5 (over +115, under -145)
Record prediction: Under
The New York Jets have jumped to the betting favorite in the AFC East, though the juice is still on the under.
I need to see this team play first before I can believe. Some improvements were made on the offense, but most come with a higher-than-normal injury risk.
The last time we saw Aaron Rodgers play a full season, he was 30th in EPA per play from a clean pocket. He’s now 40 years old and coming off an Achilles tear. It’s hard to fully buy into a bounce-back season.
Defensively, the pass rush isn’t as deep, which could put more strain on a secondary for a defense that rushes four at one of the highest rates in the league.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 10.5 (over -120, under +100)
Record prediction: Over
Much of the talk around the Baltimore Ravens this offseason has centered around what they lost — Mike Macdonald, Geno Stone, Jadeveon Clowney, pieces of the offensive line — but there’s still so much to like about this team.
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry can carry the load on offense with a devastating rushing attack that should go against lighter boxes. Todd Monken will give the passing game another year of development.
There is still enough high-level talent on the defense to make up for Macdonald's departure. Baltimore's promotion of Zach Orr with multiple other future defensive coordinators on staff should be promising. This defense could also take a slight step back if the offense improves efficiency-wise.
It’s easy to forget the Ravens had the best record and the best point differential in the league last season.
Cincinnati Bengals 10.5 (over -125, under +100)
Record prediction: Over
This is all about Joe Burrow’s health. If the quarterback can make it through the season with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, this offense will be good enough to carry this team to double-digit wins.
That sets the floor. The defense could determine the ceiling. Last season was the first in which the Cincinnati Bengals tried to go cheaper and replace veterans with younger talent in preparation for the big contracts given out on offense.
That didn’t work, and the Bengals were 25th in EPA per play on defense. This year, a few more vets have been brought in, and if the defense looks more like it did before 2023, the Bengals could again be one of the top teams in the conference.
Cleveland Browns 8.5 (over -135, under +115)
Record prediction: Under
Jim Schwartz is great at sparking a defensive turnaround in Year 1 but those defenses have a history of falling off in the following seasons. Even if there’s not a significant dropoff, it will be difficult for the Cleveland Browns to remain the league’s best defense. Having that defensive quality is what kept them afloat last year.
This offense was not good in 2023 — even under Joe Flacco — and Deshaun Watson has shown no proof he has high-quality play left in him. His last good season was now three years ago. Bringing in Ken Dorsey to add more Buffalo elements to the passing game could help, but also has the potential to disconnect the run and pass games.
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5 (over +120, under -145)
Record prediction: Under
Going under on a Mike Tomlin team, especially one set to finish under .500, has not been a smart bet, but if there’s a year the streak can be broken, it’s this one.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have two flawed quarterbacks who don’t see the middle of the field well and finished 22nd and 23rd in EPA per play last season. George Pickens is the only plus receiver to go along with Pat Frieimuth, so there won’t be a lot of help in the receiving room.
The defense would have to do a lot of heavy lifting. Pittsburgh finished eighth in EPA per play on defense last season but might have to push it to a top-five unit for this to go over.
AFC South
Houston Texans 9.5 (over -140, under +120)
Record prediction: Over
The Houston Texans had the season they did last year while the offense figured out what it should be, and the defense still had holes.
Heading into this season, the offense knows what it is and should lean even more on C.J. Stroud and the passing game with three good receivers in the lineup.
Defensively, the Texans added a number of good pieces that should allow DeMeco Ryans to fully unlock the defense. The pass rush should be a problem for other teams, with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, while Azeez Al-Shaair brings a massive upgrade at linebacker.
Indianapolis Colts 8.5 (over -105, under -115)
Record prediction: Over
This might be the biggest projection in the exercise, but it’s a bet on Shane Steichen. If Steichen could get a near playoff berth by building an offense on the fly around Gardner Minshew, then the offense should have many more possibilities with a full season of Anthony Richardson.
Richardson has flashed enough that an offense built around his strengths should more than make up for some of the lapses in accuracy. Add him to a run game with Jonathan Taylor — the two only played one snap together last season — and the offense could be explosive.
That should be enough to protect a defense that has some questions in the secondary after the team decided not to add anyone of consequence at cornerback. If there’s a non-injury portion that could hold the Indianapolis Colts back, it’s that.
Jacksonville Jaguars 8.5 (over -145, under +120)
Record prediction: Under
Trevor Lawrence is a good quarterback, but the offensive structure is still a concern. His preseason outing did look good, with some time to throw off play-action and use of deep crossers.
Still, it’s hard to trust the offensive line to hold up for that to work over a full season. That could lead the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense to look like it did in 2023. Running a quick-passing offense with vertical receivers could produce more underwhelming results.
Tennessee Titans 6.5 (over +110, under -135)
Record prediction: Under
The Tennessee Titans might have the widest range of outcomes of any team in the league. Typically a team that adds significant pieces to a defense will see a jump in Year 1.
It’s not always the best long-term roster strategy, but that first-year bump is likely. The Titans made another addition with the trade for Ernest Jones, one of the league’s most underrated players, to help the defense's weakest spot.
The offense comes down to what can be gotten from Will Levis. There are great throws on film, but his lack of pocket presence could be a disqualifying trait that never allows the passing game to get in a rhythm.
It feels like putting a little too much trust into the unknown to feel comfortable with a Tennessee over.
AFC West
Denver Broncos 5.5 (over -130, under +110)
Record prediction: Under
I don’t know if it’s possible to say the hype surrounding a team with a 5.5-win total has gone wild, but that’s where we are with the Denver Broncos. The win total remains low, but the over is heavily favored.
Bo Nix's preseason performance was not enough to suggest this is going to be some hyper-efficient offense throughout the season. That has to be the case in order for that unit to succeed.
There are still enough questions on the roster, especially on defense (they were 27th in EPA per play last season) outside of Patrick Surtain, that this feels like an uneven season in Denver.
Kansas City Chiefs 11.5 (over -115, under -105)
Record prediction: Over
Even if the Kansas City Chiefs use the regular season to figure out what will work in the playoffs, it’s nearly impossible to go under here. The offense has been reworked to where we could see the return of a more vertical passing game for Patrick Mahomes. That would be enough to get the Chiefs over.
I’d even feel comfortable bumping the line up for an alternate win total of 12.5, which gets the over to +170. The Chiefs have a bottom-third schedule and could easily get to 13 wins while not taking the regular season super seriously.
Las Vegas Raiders 6.5 (over -130, under +110)
Record prediction: Under
While playing around with a few season simulators to get an idea of team records, I came out with the Las Vegas Raiders finishing 7-10 a few times. That would indicate the over, but it also always felt like the ceiling for this team.
The defense could be a lot of fun with a dominant defensive line and aggressive secondary, but an offense led by Gardner Minshew feels underwhelming.
Minshew's 39.4 percent success rate last season ranked 29th among quarterbacks. There was enough schematically to make that work in Indianapolis, but Luke Getsy doesn’t get that same level of trust.
Los Angeles Chargers 8.5 (over -155, under +130)
Record prediction: Under
Jim Harbaugh will likely do good things for the Los Angeles Chargers but the optimism around a Year 1 boost is tough to fully grasp.
Justin Herbert will likely deal with a foot issue for much of the season and isn’t throwing to a great group of receivers. Even a good or fine group of receivers would be nice, but we might not be there either.
Defensively, it might also take a year to figure out how everyone best fits in Jesse Minter’s scheme. The new scheme should allow players like Derwin James to play a bit faster, but we might not get the full impact of the changes until Year 2.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 9.5 (over -145, under +120)
Record prediction: Over
The Dallas Cowboys were a mess during the offseason, but that doesn’t matter once the games begin. Dak Prescott will be throwing passes to CeeDee Lamb, and that alone can result in an above-average offense.
That will continue to be the focal point of this team. Lamb had the most targets in the league last season and could be facing that type of volume again. Prescott was second in EPA per play and third in success rate last season.
This isn’t a prediction for the Cowboys to go on an extended playoff run, so it feels safer to believe the successful regular seasons will continue with at least double-digit wins.
New York Giants 6.5 (over +115, under -135)
Record prediction: Under
The surprise 2022 season stemmed from avoiding trouble spots for Daniel Jones. He was often used on bootlegs to get him out of the pocket, which allowed him to scramble in space if there were no option receiving options. When he did throw, he had the lowest average depth of target in the league.
Even if the New York Giants wanted to scheme that way again, it could be difficult. Jones might not be the same runner off his torn ACL, and they have a top wide receiver who might be force-fed the ball all over the field.
That could leave Jones susceptible to more pressure and tight throws, which could cause more sacks and interceptions.
There are also a lot of questions about the defense, especially in the secondary, which lacks many proven players. If the front four does not create pressure, the Giants could give up some explosive passing plays.
Philadelphia Eagles 10.5 (over -130, under +110)
Record prediction: Over
Despite all that went wrong for the Philadelphia Eagles last season, Jalen Hurts was still a top-10 quarterback by EPA per play and ranked 11th in success rate. With an improvement in the offensive system, that unit could look more in rhythm than it did at times in 2023.
If that’s the case, along with an explosive running game, the Eagles could again consistently be one of the best offenses in the league. This offense was eighth in EPA per drive last season but did not always feel like it.
There’s too much talent on both sides of the ball for this team to underwhelm again. If the defense just approaches average under Vin Fangio, rather than 30th in EPA per play, the over should be in play.
Washington Commanders 6.5 (over -130, under +110)
Record prediction: Under
The prospect of Jayden Daniels is exciting, but there’s so much more outside of just the quarterback that could limit the ceiling in Year 1.
The Washington Commanders’ offense was heavily reliant on RPOs and screens during the preseason. While the offense could expand when the regular season begins, Kliff Kingsbury is no stranger to a condensed, horizontal offense. Combine that with an offensive line that could be questionable and a quarterback not afraid to take hits, and there could be some early growing pains.
The Commanders brought in a few veterans to strengthen the defense, but that might not be enough to make it a good unit after it was the second-worst in the league by EPA per play last season.
NFC North
Chicago Bears 9.5 (over +120, under -150)
Record prediction: Over
Going over 9.5 wins for the Chicago Bears is incredibly optimistic, but we have to take some swings. This is a fun defense with a great back seven.
With more confidence in the pressure happening up front, the secondary was more aggressive and was more active in creating turnovers. While the high rate of turnovers might not continue at the same rate, that attitude on defense could keep them near the top 10 in efficiency.
If the defense can be on that level, it gives a wider margin for error on offense. The offense, with Caleb Williams, might not need that, with arguably the best supporting cast for a first-overall pick.
Detroit Lions 10.5 (over -135, under +110)
Record prediction: Over
The Detroit Lions kept the band together in all the best ways. The roster improvements came in the places that needed them, such as the secondary.
A reworked starting cornerback duo of Carlton Davis and Terrion Arnold should be an upgrade over what the Lions had last season, especially later in the year. Having Brian Branch, who can play the slot and safety, also opens up many options and personnel combinations in the secondary.
We know the offense will be good with the return of Ben Johnson, but having that defensive improvement is what should make this an easy over.
Green Bay Packers 9.5 (-135, under +115)
Record prediction: Over
Even if this number were higher, I’d be prepared to go over on the Green Bay Packers (an over for an adjusted line of 10.5 is +150).
The offense hit its stride in the second half of the season in a way that makes it easy to see the success carrying over into 2024. With Jordan Love and the range of options at receiver, including the two tight ends, it’s difficult to see how this team does not produce a top-10 offense.
What could take this team from good to great is the defense. There is no more fascinating unit than the Green Bay defense that will drastically change its scheme under Jeff Hafley. A faster, more aggressive defense should play to the roster’s strengths, especially on the defensive line.
Minnesota Vikings 6.5 (over -140, under +120)
Record prediction: Over
Losing J.J. McCarthy is a blow, especially with how he looked during his preseason debut, but that should still spark enough confidence in the offensive system in place to work regardless of the quarterback.
Still, there will be open throws on crossers that can make life easier for Sam Darnold, and there’s also that Justin Jefferson guy.
Last year, this defense was just 20th in EPA per play while it sent wild blitzes and created chaos out of necessity. With better personnel, the defense can cause controlled chaos in 2024 and sustain defensive success instead of running out of steam like it did last season.
The Minnesota Vikings might not be a playoff team, but six wins feels too low for the quality of the roster.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 9.5 (over -150, under +125)
Record prediction: Under
Adding Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons helps an Atlanta Falcons defense that was devoid of top-tier talent at most spots. Simmons and Jessie Bates could be a top safety duo, though there still isn’t much of a pass rush outside of Judon.
The offense has the talent but still requires a lot of projection and reliance on a late-30s quarterback coming off an Achilles injury. There still seem to be more paths for things to go wrong than a double-digit win season, even if the schedule is easy and the division is rough.
Carolina Panthers 5.5 (over -115, under -105)
Record prediction: Under
It can’t get worse for the Carolina Panthers after last season when the coach was fired before his first year was completed, and the first-round pick at quarterback, who was acquired for a massive package, looked lost.
The question is how much better it will get in 2024. Dave Canales could bring a better offensive infrastructure for Bryce Young, but Young’s rookie season still showed that his style of play might not have a high ceiling.
The pass catchers were improved, but that doesn’t automatically equate to a good offense.
New Orleans Saints 7.5 (over -120, under +100)
Record prediction: Under
The New Orleans Saints are fine. That’s usually the problem. New Orleans reshuffles the deck just about every season, and there’s no concerted effort to break from the cycle.
With Klint Kubiak as offensive coordinator, the offense could improve, but that puts Derek Carr in a play-action offense behind a shaky offensive line. The defense is getting older, having the second-oldest unit by snap-weighted age.
New Orleans is projected to have the second-easiest schedule by DVOA (Carolina has the easiest), which could be the case for the over, but the Saints could also lead this division at 7-10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.5 (over -135, under +115)
Record prediction: Under
After a surprise run to the playoffs last season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers kept most of the core together.
Baker Mayfield had a rebound season and looked more comfortable in the pocket with Canales' coaching. With Canales now in Carolina, Liam Coen takes over as offensive coordinator. Coen had an uneven run as OC with the Rams in 2022, but that did include the last-minute Mayfield start on Thursday Night Football.
Like the rest of the division, the Buccaneers get an easy schedule, but the ceiling doesn’t feel that high.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals 6.5 (over -150, under +125)
Record prediction: Under
This is admittedly a painful under to take because there’s a lot to like about what the Arizona Cardinals are doing. It’s just that it’s hard to see an over in this division with the way Arizona is set up.
The offense might be good with a fully healthy Kyler Murray, another year removed from his injury, and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. on top of a run game that was one of the league’s best last season, finishing sixth in EPA per play.
Still, there’s not a lot of talent on the defense, even if schematically, this team was trying some fun things in 2023 and will continue to do so in 2024. That lack of defensive strength will make it tough to hold up against the rest of the division, along with a schedule that is sixth-hardest by DVOA.
Los Angeles Rams 8.5 (over -160, under +135)
Record prediction: Over
Even after the Los Angeles Rams surprisingly traded away Ernest Jones, a team captain and the green dot signal caller on defense, there is still a lot of talent on this team.
A lot has to break the right way on defense after losing Aaron Donald and plugging in a mixture of rookies on the defensive line and veterans in the secondary, but this offense might be good enough to carry it while the kinks are worked out.
This was one of the best offenses in the league last season, and Sean McVay made a midseason pivot to unlock more potential. The offensive line should be improved, and the receivers could be better in the second year of a Puka Nacua-Cooper Kupp combo.
Moving this over to 10.5 wins puts the line at +195. In my very unscientific simulations, I consistently had the Rams as a double-digit win team.
San Francisco 49ers 11.5 (over +125, under -145)
Record prediction: Over
The San Francisco 49ers still have a lot of questions for a team expected to be the best in the conference. Brandon Aiyuk is still not practicing, and Trent Williams has yet to report. Williams’s regular season status is less concerning than Aiyuk’s.
This offense will be good with or without Aiuyk, but his presence is part of what really makes it go.
Some may have defensive concerns, but there is still a star at every level of this defense, and that should stop the bottom from falling out.
This feels like a slightly negative write-up for a team we’re saying will win at least 12 games, but the 49ers roster is still such that these questions can persist, and the results can be quite good.
Seattle Seahawks 7.5 (over -150, under +130)
Record prediction: Over
The Seattle Seahawks are on the shortlist for the most fascinating team in the league. Mike Macdonald is taking over a defense that has some talent but underperformed in the scheme asked of them last season.
The good players should be great — Devon Witherspoon, who had 16 passes defensed and eight tackles for loss as a rookie, is +10000 to win Defensive Player of the Year — and it should lift the quality of defense across the board.
Seattle has good offensive pieces that were derailed by offensive line injuries. An offense run by Ryan Grubb should let Geno Smith unleash the deep ball and get great production out of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
