Analysis
9/23/22
7 min read
Pre-Snap Read: Why Tua, Dolphins Could Give Bills Fits
Just like that, Miami Dolphins second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa finds himself a star in the NFL’s most attractive matchup of Week 3.
Four hundred-plus passing with 6 touchdowns, and a date with an undefeated division rival – which happens to have the league’s best quarterback – can accelerate you down that path.
OK, the Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers matchup that’ll take place down the road in Tampa later in the day is must-see TV as well. But for me, Miami hosts this week’s QB Anticipation Bowl. No quarterback is playing better than Josh Allen, and none have combined preseason scrutiny with eye-opening production like Tagovailoa, though Jalen Hurts is certainly in that conversation.
How did the Dolphins transition into such a passing-game juggernaut in two weeks? And what level of Buffalo’s defense needs its best day on Sunday?
The best way to get there is to shine a light on what the Dolphins did so well in Baltimore.
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First of all, Miami’s offense owned the line of scrimmage. Not in a traditional way with the big guys up front, but on the perimeter with speedy receivers out wide.
Think about Saturdays and the spread offenses you see in college. Think QB takes the snap, catches and releases down the line – the passing-game equivalent of a handoff down the line.
Tagovailoa’s first completion in his team’s come-from-behind, shocking victory over the Ravens was behind the line of scrimmage. He connected on three more before halftime, and his first three completions of the second half were of the same variety. Roughly a quarter of his 36 completions were catch-and-release extensions of the running game, allowing Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to show off their make-you-miss ability.
It’s collegiate, yes, but it’s a simple and smart way to take advantage of the best and most dynamic part of Miami’s offense: Hill and Waddle. They scare a defense with speed and are excellent with the ball in their hands. Understanding Miami’s early passing-game success is knowing that Hill leads the league in receiving yards and Waddle is third, not because they are running by people, but because they get the ball quickly and have a chance to run around them.
That concept set up what was coming next, and paired well with what was likely Baltimore’s defensive mantra all week: Don’t let them get behind you! McDaniel and Tua were happy to leverage that fear by having a day with the cushion that came with it.
Quick outs, quick slants.
Shallow crosses, deep crosses.
Curls, ins, seams.
Every intermediate passing-game bell and whistle one could dial up, Miami had it, and Tagovailoa hit it.
Most of the scheming took place from behind the line of scrimmage to 20 yards downfield, which put the game plan in Tagovailoa’s wheelhouse.
He doesn’t possess nearly the elite qualities of his Sunday counterpart, Josh Allen. But his best talents were highlighted by McDaniel’s plan.
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First, he’s naturally a quick setup in the pocket, routinely ready to throw on demand. He’s an underrated ball-handler in play-action, and would rather throw early than wait for later. It’s a perfect recipe for short-to-intermediate routes.
He was normally scanning that imaginary rectangle in front of him, extending vertically about 20 yards downfield, and horizontally from the painted numbers on one side to the other. That’s the area the Dolphins claim as their own, and they were successful by flooding it in a variety of ways with Waddle, Hill and tight end Mike Gisecki.
And this is the geography of the field where Tagovailoa’s feel and instincts can come alive. He throws an average deep ball and doesn’t have the fastball to consistently own the deep-out routes. But when he’s on, he has a knack for finding the right balance between touch and velocity, showing off his timing and placement. That’s why the middle of the field, with routes that sync up with a quick setup and release, is his sweet spot.
It’s no coincidence that the two times Hill got behind Baltimore’s defense came in the fourth quarter, after 40-plus pass attempts by Tagovailoa in the short-to-medium range. Whether it was intentional or not, Miami set the Ravens up for haymakers with three-quarters of effective body blows.
One Tagovailoa observation beyond the smart play-calling and gaudy numbers: twice on game-defining plays he displayed pretty high-level pocket savvy that will serve him so incredibly well if he can make it a habit.
On the 48-yard over-the-top TD pass to Hill to cut the Ravens’ lead to 35-28, he got to the top of his drop, felt the blitz without looking at it or delaying the release of the ball, he subtly slid in the pocket, instinctively finding the open space he needed to let one go way downfield.
And then on the game-winning TD pass to Waddle, he manipulated the pocket in multiple directions, again keeping his eyes downfield, and found the receiver in the end zone.
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So, what’s it all mean for Buffalo on Sunday?
Because the Bills will be forced to start two rookies at cornerback, and since Hill and Waddle just combined for a jaw-dropping 22 receptions, 361 yards and 4 touchdowns, the cornerback vs. wide receiver matchups will get most of the attention.
But, I’m looking squarely at the Bills’ linebackers, and to a certain extent the DBs they deploy as nickel and dime backs. Their sideline-to-sideline speed and tackling ability will be stressed from start to finish, considering how often they’ll have to pursue down the line of scrimmage to help contain Hill and Waddle, a tandem that will likely combine for double-digit catch-and-run perimeter opportunities that begin near the line of scrimmage.
They will also be tested often in the drop-back passing game. McDaniel will be on the lookout for vacated zone windows just behind them, and just in front of the safeties. With the Baltimore plan as a recipe, Hill and Waddle will come from wide to expose them, and Gisecki from somewhere just outside the tackles.
While you watch Tagovailoa closely to see if he can live up to last week’s standard and keep pace with Josh Allen, keep an eye on the middle of Buffalo’s defense to see if it's up to the wide-ranging challenge of Miami’s blossoming passing game.
WATCH MORE: Charles Davis on Why The Dolphins Could Challenge the Bills in the AFC East
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