Betting
12/6/24
8 min read
Predicting 2024 NFL Award Winners With One Month Left
There are just five weeks left in the NFL season, and for most teams, Week 18 won’t matter much. The race for the 2024-2025 awards is heating up, and some clear favorites have emerged. But who will win the MVP? And who will take home the Rookie of the Year award? Here is how we would vote for the awards with just a quarter of the season left to go.
Just to be clear, this is how we would vote for the award rather than what we expect to happen. Narratives drive this award every year, and we know that it can be flipped at any moment. So, without further ado, here are our picks for all of the top awards for the 2024 season:
Predicting 2024 NFL All-Pro Team
Predicting NFL Award Winners With One Month Left
MVP: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills 
You can make a strong case for several different players for this award, including Lamar Jackson and Saquon Barkley. However, we are taking Josh Allen after leading the Bills to a 10-2 record this season.
Many expected the Bills to take a step back in the AFC East this season, and in fact, the Jets were favored to win the division heading into Week 1. Not only is that not the case, but the Bills have already clinched the division after their Week 13 win against the 49ers.
Allen has been spectacular this season, leading the Bills to some signature wins, including against the Kansas City Chiefs. Allen’s touchdown run on fourth down was the defining moment of that game, and it handed the Chiefs their first loss of the season.
Allen’s stats aren’t overwhelming, but he’s accounted for 27 touchdowns this season and has a passer rating of 100.3. He’s been a force as a runner, and the Bills have been productive on offense all season despite injuries to several different offensive playmakers. They have the No. 2 ranked scoring offense (29.6 PPG) and have posted those numbers in the rain, snow, and whipping winds in Buffalo.
Allen's Bills are just 0.5 game back of the No. 1 seed in the AFC despite a less-than-stellar roster around him. The MVP award is often a narrative award, but it does feel like Allen is the best player in the NFL right now and will be rewarded.
OPOY: Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
If Saquon Barkley doesn’t win the MVP award, you can bet on him winning the Offensive Player of the Year award. While quarterbacks have won this award in the past, it is generally an award that is given out to the best skill player that season. Patrick Mahomes (2018) was the last quarterback to win the award, and Christian McCaffrey won last year.
Barkley leads the NFL in several categories, including rushing yards (1,499) and yards from scrimmage (1,766). He is on pace to rush for 2,100 yards and rack up more than 2,500 yards from scrimmage. And if he can get to 16+ touchdowns, he will be among the only running backs in NFL history with that sort of production.
It’s possible that Josh Allen will win the MVP and Lamar Jackson will win the OPOY (or vice versa). But Barkley seems like the clear-cut favorite for this award, especially with some soft run defenses coming up on the schedule. Look for Barkley to continue to put up huge numbers and to take this award with ease in February.
DPOY: Xavier McKinney, S, Green Bay Packers
T.J. Watt is the favorite for this award, but there is no reason for that. He’s not inside the top five in sacks. His pressure numbers are way down, and his pass-rush win percentage isn’t anywhere close to the top 10. So, this feels like the perfect year to give to a non-pass rusher, but I have my doubts that it’ll happen.
So, who could win the award if not for Watt? How about Xavier McKinney, who signed with the Packers in free agency? Heading into Week 14, the Packers have the No. 10 scoring defense, and a big reason for this is McKinney's play.
He leads the NFL in interceptions (seven) and has recorded nine pass deflections to go with one sack and one fumble recovery. With eight turnovers already, he’s got a great chance to reach double-digits on one of the league’s best defenses. And considering how much he’s helped that unit improve, it would be awfully hard to take him over a pass rusher this year.
Of all the awards, the Defensive Player of the Year award is the most up for grabs going into the final month of the season. However, McKinney should be one of the clear favorites, considering the impact he’s made on the Packers.
OROY: Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Bo Nix and Brock Bowers have made this award much more competitive in recent weeks, but let’s not forget the type of season that Jayden Daniels is having. Not only has he turned the Commanders into a playoff team, but he is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and is averaging 7.8 yards per attempt. And, oh yeah, he’s already rushed for 580 yards and six touchdowns.
Daniels is averaging 274 yards of offense (passing and rushing) per game and has accounted for 21 touchdowns in 13 games. His efficiency numbers are off the charts, and he’s delivered some signature plays, including a Hail Mary touchdown against the Bears.
While his production has dropped off some in the past few weeks, he’s on pace to rack up 28 touchdowns and nearly 4,500 yards as a rookie. More importantly, he’s turned the Commanders from a laughingstock to a playoff contender in the NFC. While Bowers and Nix have strong cases, Daniels is the pick here.
DROY: Jared Verse, EDGE, Los Angeles Rams
The first defensive player selected in the 2024 NFL Draft wasn’t picked until No. 15, so it should be no surprise that this is a weaker class of defenders this year. However, one player who has made a big impact so far is Jared Verse, who many draftniks believed was the best defensive player in this year’s draft.
Verse does not have big counting numbers (4.5 sacks), but he does have 17 QB hits and 11 tackles for a loss. Some of his advanced numbers (pressures, pass-rush win rate) are all near the top of the league, and that should be enough for him to win this award. Verse is a well-rounded defensive end who has played 77 percent of the defensive snaps for the Rams this season. He’s started every game and has made his presence known each week.
As long as Verse can get to 6-7 sacks this season, he should have no problem winning this award. His ability to create pressures, hold up in the run game, and use his power to knock back offensive linemen are just some of the reasons why he’s been the best defensive player this season.
Coach Of The Year: Kevin O’Connell, HC, Minnesota Vikings
There are several worthy candidates for this award, including Dan Campbell, Mike Tomlin, and Jim Harbaugh.
But Kevin O’Connell should be the favorite here for a variety of reasons. Going into the 2024 season, the Minnesota Vikings had a projected win total of 6.5 on most sportsbooks. After it was announced that J.J. McCarthy would miss his entire rookie season with a knee injury, it sure seemed like the Vikings would be in contention for the No. 1 pick. Instead, they are only 1.5 games back from the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
O’Connell has turned around Sam Darnold's career, turning him into one of the league’s most efficient passers. The Vikings have the No. 9 scoring offense and have done so without their starting quarterback (McCarthy) and superstar left tackle (Christian Darrisaw).
But the Vikings' impressive offense is not the only factor. Minnesota’s defense has also been outstanding, and it has done so with some aging veterans in the secondary and pass rushers that even die-hard fans might not know.
Minnesota has already reached double-digit wins, and one of its losses was by two points to the Lions. The Vikings are legitimate playoff contenders and could easily steal the No. 1 seed in the conference. Given that this team looked to be destined for another sub-par year after losing Kirk Cousins in free agency, O’Connell should be the easy choice for this award.
