NFL Analysis
8/7/24
9 min read
Predicting Winners Of NFL’s Biggest QB Battles In 2024 Preseason
As we head into Week 1 of NFL preseason and are a month away from the regular season openers, NFL coaches with starting quarterback competitions are getting closer to naming their No. 1 signal callers.
It’s always the biggest storyline in NFL training camps when a decision looms at the most important position. Some are fairly obvious at this juncture, but a few races are tougher to call. The decisions could be announced anytime in the next couple of weeks.
Here are my predictions on who emerges to get the opening day start on Sept. 8 from the six training camp/preseason quarterback battles where a starter has not yet been announced:
Predicting Which QBs Will Start Week 1
DENVER BRONCOS 
After 12th overall pick Bo Nix shared first-team reps with vets Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson in the first week of training camp, Nix and Stidham alternated with the starting unit in the second week, with Nix getting the majority of those reps.
Broncos coach Sean Payton has consistently praised first-rounder Nix’s maturity and work ethic, along with his extensive college experience as a five-year starter at Auburn and Oregon. He also compared Nix with soon-to-be Hall of Famer Drew Brees in a recent media session in terms of having “pretty good pocket awareness and not taking a lot of sacks.” Payton also has to like how Nix protected the ball last season at Oregon with only three picks while completing 77.9 percent of his passes and throwing 45 TD passes.
Stidham is a career backup, while Wilson was a bust with the Jets. The preseason games beginning this Sunday at Indianapolis and joint practices with the Packers next week ahead of their August 18 preseason game in Denver will be important in Payton's decision-making, but it seems as if he’s basically set on Nix as his No. 1 quarterback.
Week 1 Starter Prediction: Bo Nix
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
This is perhaps the closest race between free agent signee Gardner Minshew and 2023 fourth-rounder Aidan O’Connell.
Minshew is on his fourth team after stints in Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Indianapolis. He was signed to a two-year, $25 million deal with $15 million guaranteed after almost leading the Colts to the playoffs last season with a 7-6 record in his 13 starts (with a below-average passer rating of 84.6). His career passer rating is better at 90.2 in 49 career games (37 starts, 15-22 record).
O’Connell started 10 games as a rookie last season, winning five with an 83.9 passer rating. But he played well in his last four starts, going 3-1 (including a win at Kansas City) with a 98.4 passer rating. He was Coach Antonio Pierce’s choice to start over Jimmy Garoppolo when Pierce took over as interim coach in midseason.
Minshew was the more impressive player during last Saturday night’s team scrimmage, throwing two touchdown passes against one interception, while O’Connell threw two picks. Pierce says both quarterbacks will play a “legit” quarter in Minnesota during the preseason opener on Saturday.
The play of the quarterbacks in preseason games is likely to be the deciding factor, along with which player does a better job of getting the ball to six-time Pro Bowl receiver Davante Adams.
The Raiders have no joint practices scheduled with other teams. Minshew’s experience probably will tilt Pierce’s decision in his direction, but O’Connell clearly has a shot.
Week 1 Starter Prediction: Gardner Minshew
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Sam Darnold was signed in free agency on a one-year, $10 million deal to be the bridge to a rookie first-round pick who turned out to be J.J. McCarthy, who the Vikings selected at No. 10 overall.
Darnold was a Jets bust as the third overall pick in 2018 before faring a bit better for two seasons in Carolina and then backing up Brock Prudy in San Francisco last season.
Darnold has taken most of the reps in training camp with the Vikings' No. 1 offense, although McCarthy, the national champion quarterback from Michigan with a 27-1 college career record, is getting a few reps with the starters and is expected to see more in the weeks ahead.
Coach Kevin O’Connell said he’ll announce the quarterback rotation plan on Thursday for this Saturday’s preseason opener at home against the Raiders. On the team's first depth chart released this week, Darnold is QB1.
O’Connell acknowledges there is competition while praising both players. “I think both guys have done a lot of really, really good things,” he said. “But I also think both guys have made some mistakes with the football.”
Both players have arm talent and can scramble, although McCarthy has better mobility. They have an excellent supporting cast to work with on offense, led by star wide receiver Justin Jefferson.
O’Connell is a former NFL quarterback who said he won't push the 21-year-old McCarthy to start before he deems him ready. That will not likely come until around mid-season unless Darnold struggles out of the gate or gets hurt.
He’s trying to prove he’s a late bloomer a la Geno Smith in Seattle and that he can overcome his past interception issues (56 career picks, including double-digits in his four seasons as a starter).
Week 1 Starter Prediction: Sam Darnold
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Patriots selected Drake Maye, No. 3 overall this year, to be the team’s long-term franchise quarterback. He’s only 21 and started just 26 games at North Carolina. He played well with 63 touchdown passes, 16 interceptions, and 16 rushing touchdowns. Maye has quickly moved up to No. 2 quarterback ahead of Bailey Zappe and Joe Milton, with vet Jacoby Brissett taking the first-team reps in the first couple weeks of training camp.
Brissett returned as a free agent this year to the team that drafted him in the 2016 third round. He has 48 career starts in the NFL, an unimpressive 18-30 record, and an 85.3 career passer rating.
Maye has shown his talent in camp while also battling the inconsistency expected of a rookie quarterback. New Patriots Coach Jerod Mayo says Maye will get more first-team reps as camp rolls on. Brissett will start, and Maye will play in this Thursday’s preseason opener against Carolina. Maye should see plenty of playtime in the following two preseason games.
The Pats also have a joint practice next week with the Eagles ahead of their August 15 preseason game. These will be big opportunities for Maye to make a run at Brissett.
Maye will eventually become the starter, but it’s unlikely to be on opening day in a tough matchup at Cincinnati.
Week 1 Starter Prediction: Jacoby Brissett
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Entering training camp, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said Russell Wilson had the “pole position” over ex-Bear Justin Fields. However, Wilson has participated on a limited basis in training camp due to a calf injury, which has allowed Fields to run the first-team offense. He performed well last week at a night practice.
Wilson is expected to return to practice next week as the No. 1 quarterback. “Certainly, they’re competing, but I don’t overly concern ourselves with being fair,” Tomlin said. “We just pay respect to the totality of his (Wilson’s) resume and his experience. But both guys are going to be given an opportunity to show their skills over the next month.”
Wilson is unlikely to play in any preseason games, so Fields will get plenty of playing time in a joint practice and preseason game against Buffalo this week and in the following two preseason games.
If Wilson indeed gets the call on opening day as expected, he could be on a short leash as he is coming off three straight seasons with losing records. His stats were better in 2023 (98.0 passer rating with 26 TDs and eight picks plus 341 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground).
He’s a nine-time Pro Bowler and future Hall of Famer as a Super Bowl champ in Seattle, but he’s only being paid $1.21 million by the Steelers after being dumped by Denver (with the Broncos responsible for $39 million of his 2024 salary).
Despite what Tomlin says publicly, the Steelers aren’t married to Wilson, which is good news for Fields, a former first-rounder and three-year starter in Chicago with 54 combined TDs passing and rushing in his career. Another injury to Wilson will further open the door for Fields.
Week 1 Starter Prediction: Russell Wilson
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
This is the easiest call to make and could be the first among these six teams to be announced. Jayden Daniels was the second overall pick in this year’s draft. Marcus Mariota is the veteran free agent who was brought aboard to be the likely backup.
New coach Dan Quinn has held off on naming Daniels the starter, but the rookie is now taking most of the first-team reps in training camp and reportedly has been impressive. The Commanders have joint practices this week with the New York Jets, followed by the preseason opener in the Meadowlands, and Quinn says Daniels will start that game. “On the first unofficial depth chart, he is QB1,” Quinn said this week.
In Week 2 of the preseason, Washington will practice against the Dolphins before facing them in Miami. That will give Quinn and his offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury, a better handle on Daniels’ progress.
Daniels won the Heisman Trophy last season after a tremendous year for LSU with 3,812 passing yards, 40 touchdown passes, only four interceptions, plus 1,134 yards and 12 touchdowns rushing. Mariota is entering his tenth season and was signed for $6 million in 2024, but Daniels received a $24.3 million signing bonus as part of his four-year, $37.75 million deal (plus a fifth-year option).
Daniels is clearly going to get the regular season opening day nod here — and soon.
Week 1 Starter Prediction: Jayden Daniels
