NFL Analysis
8/30/24
10 min read
Predictions For Every Major 2024 NFL Award Winner
With the NFL season less than a week away, there’s no better time to make some awards predictions.
While in-season MVP debates can be incredibly tiresome and rarely add substance to any discussion, awards and how we view them do matter. They provide insight into how we talk about and contextualize the game at a given moment.
However, these season-long awards have also fallen into a bit of a pattern. So, as we go through them, we’ll give a pick, someone who likely won’t win the award because of the circumstances, and a long shot option.
All stats are provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise, and all betting lines are from DraftKings.
2024 NFL Award Predictions
Most Valuable Player
Who It Will Be: Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love finished eighth in EPA per play last season, boosted by ranking third across the second half of the season. Second-half leaps aren’t always an indicator of improvements for the following season, but there’s a lot to like about how the Packers changed the offense and found the right balance to allow Love to loosen up and play more comfortably.
With Love, there is a path to league-high efficiency for a team that could come out as the top seed in the NFC. That’s usually a good combination for an MVP pick.
Who It Won’t Be: Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
Last season, Jared Goff finished sixth in EPA per play while throwing for 4,575 yards and 30 touchdowns on a team with a bad defense that finished as the No. 3 seed in the NFC. He did not receive a single 10th-place vote for MVP.
For Goff to leap to MVP favorite, he would have to put up a better statistical season while the Lions improve as a team without anything taking away from Goff. That’s a difficult road.
Long Shot: Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
Not enough people understand how good Matthew Stafford was in 2023. He finished third among quarterbacks in EPA per play on one of the league’s best offenses, another with a midseason shift in philosophy.
There are some injuries up front, but if the Rams continue to succeed on offense while the defense figures things out in a post-Aaron Donald world, Stafford could get more recognition for how he’s played.
At +3000 in odds, he holds the best chance of the longshots with the combination of production and team success.
Offensive Player of the Year
Who It Will Be: Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Some have shied away from Justin Jefferson, who is now fourth in OPOY odds at +14000, because of his quarterback situation. However, it’s more likely that the quarterback situation will play into Jefferson’s second Offensive Player of the Year win in three seasons.
Jefferson averaged 2.9 yards per route run with Kirk Cousins at quarterback last season. He averaged 3.09 without him.
During his 2022 OPOY season, Jefferson ripped off more than 1,000 receiving yards during the second half of the season and nearly pushed for the single-season receiving record. Anything is possible for him.
Jefferson can go off for a sustained stretch in a good offense, where he will be the top target. T.J. Hockenson will miss time at the start of the season, and Jordan Addison could serve a suspension sometime during the year.
Who It Won’t Be: Any Quarterback
Simply, this award has pretty much become the “best non-quarterback” award. Lamar Jackson was fourth in OPOY voting last season when he won MVP. Patrick Mahomes was second in 2022, but Jefferson was far and away the voting favorite.
This would have to be a super close MVP discussion between two quarterbacks that split the difference between the voting for these two awards without a receiver or running back worthy of first-place votes. That feels like too tight of a rope to walk to select a quarterback here.
Long Shot: De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
De'Von Achane could put up the closest season to Christian McCaffrey’s combination of rushing and receiving. Achane was only a part-time player for the Dolphins as a rookie, but he averaged 7.8 yards per carry with 22 rushes of 10 or more yards. That ranked 19th despite just 103 rushing attempts.
If Achane gets more consistent rushing volume and takes off more as a pass catcher — the Dolphins could be one team that actually uses a running back in the slot and out wide due to the current receiver depth outside of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle — then Achane could have a huge impact on the Miami offense.
Defensive Player of the Year
Who It Will Be: Micah Parsons, EDGE, Dallas Cowboys
Micah Parsons is the favorite, and deservedly so. Parsons had a case to win last season when he led the league in pressures and tied eventual winner Myles Garrett in sacks.
With new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, Parsons could be an even bigger pass-rush presence, leading to more pressures becoming sacks. That could give him big enough raw numbers in that category to be considered by more voters.
Who It Won’t Be: Fred Warner, LB, San Francisco
While we’ve seen linebackers win Defensive Rookie of the Year because of high tackle numbers, that never translates to Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Fred Warner has been one the league’s best defensive players — and best coverage linebacker — in the middle of one of the best teams in the NFL for years but has not gotten much support for this award. Last year, he was sixth in voting, just behind DaRon Bland.
As deserving as Warner could have been at nearly any point in his career, actually getting this award is a bigger long shot than even +4500 odds would indicate.
Long Shot: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Seattle Seahawks
This might be the most out-there suggestion, but I’m holding firm. It’s difficult for defensive backs to win this award. They need flashy numbers to be considered, which are hard to have as a cornerback. When Xavien Howard finished third in DPOY voting in 2020, he had 10 interceptions and 20 passes defensed.
Devon Witherspoon could have an all-around season that puts him in consideration. He was one of the best outside corners (first in catch rate over expected at -12.4 percent per Next Gen Stats), and he had the third-highest ball-hawk rate when in the slot.
As a rookie, Witherspoon had 16 passes defensed and just one interception. He could get his hand on the ball more, with a higher rate of those turning into interceptions. He also had eight tackles for loss, including three sacks, and could be even more aggressive near the line of scrimmage in Mike Macdonald’s defense.
He’s at +10000 to win the award, which is just a fun thing to root for.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Who It Will Be: Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
This is a pretty easy pick.
Caleb Williams is going to be the Day 1 starter in an offense flushed with receiving weapons that should allow him to put up some impressive numbers. Even if the down-to-down consistency isn’t there from the jump, there will be more than enough highlight plays to stick in everyone’s mind.
The only time this award hasn’t gone to a quarterback in the past five seasons was during the bad quarterback class of 2022, with Brock Purdy only playing half a season.
Who It Won’t Be: Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Bo Nix is now fourth in odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +1000. There is a lot of hype surrounding Nix and the Broncos this offseason, but it’s hard to see the path where everything comes together for Nix to leap over the other quarterbacks on this list.
Even if Nix does something like set the rookie completion percentage record, the Broncos would have to be good enough for that to matter.
Long Shot: Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas will use a lot of 12 personnel, perhaps as its leading personnel package, so Brock Bowers will be on the field often. In the preseason, the Raiders already showed some of the ways that Bowers could be used, like coming open out of the backfield.
With a quarterback who tends to keep the ball closer to the line of scrimmage, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Bowers with a high volume of receptions.
It also wouldn’t be shocking to see Bowers become a legitimate red zone threat, especially while the defense focuses on Davante Adams, who had 40.8 percent of the Raiders’ red zone targets last season.
Bowers could end up as the No. 2 receiver in Las Vegas, pushing 1,000 yards with a ton of touchdowns.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Who It Will Be: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, Indianapolis Colts
This is an award that often goes to a highly-drafted edge rusher. There aren’t many of those this year, but Laiatu Latu would fit the bill in any season. He was an explosive college rusher with a number of pass-rush moves that were advanced for a prospect. His combination of athleticism and technique could make him an instant impact player.
He had 23.5 sacks and 34 tackles for loss across his two seasons at UCLA.
With Samson Ebukam out due to an Achilles injury, Latu will get the opportunity to be that kind of difference-maker in Indianapolis. He showed off some of that explosiveness in the preseason, though he only had 13 pass-rush snaps.
Who It Won’t Be: N/A
It was a weird defensive draft, so it would be difficult to write anyone off fully. The first defensive prospect (Latu) wasn’t taken until 15th overall, and just eight defensive players were taken in the first round. That leaves a fairly open race with more variance than usual.
Long Shot: Austin Booker, EDGE, Chicago Bears
Austin Booker was selected in the fifth round but could have the playtime of a player drafted much earlier. Outside of Montez Sweat, the Bears don’t have an established No. 2 rusher. Chicago traded for Darell Taylor, who could eventually take that role, but opinions appear to be high on Booker.
During the preseason, Booker tied for sixth in pressures and put up 2.5 sacks. If he works his way into the lineup, Booker could get the chance to build on that impressive preseason and have some flashy numbers at the end of the year.
