Analysis
12/19/22
6 min read
Rams vs. Packers Monday Night DFS Showdown
This Monday night game features an injury-riddled Rams team facing a Packers team fighting for their playoff lives.
After last week's thrilling comeback win, Baker Mayfield is now the starting quarterback for the Rams. He has had more practice time to develop chemistry with his teammates, which could lead to better results. He performed well when he ran the no-huddle offense, and I believe Rams coach Sean McVay will lean into that more tonight. On the defensive side of the ball, containing the edge is going to be a daunting task with the injuries they have. The Raiders were gaining big yardage on jet sweeps.
The Packers are mathematically still in the playoffs, and Aaron Rodgers will continue to start until they aren't. The Packers' offense has not been the issue in recent weeks, but the defense has given up more than 400 total yards in four straight games. Romeo Doubs is returning this week, providing them with another wide receiver weapon to utilize.
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Vegas Line: Packers -7.5
Over Under: 40
Notable Injuries
Rams
IR: QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Allen Robinson, OT Alaric Jackson, OT Chandler Brewer, OT Joseph Noteboom, OL Logan Bruss, OL David Edwards, OL Tremayne Anchrum, S Jordan Fuller, LB Jake Hummel, DT A'Shawn Robinson
OUT: DT Aaron Donald, CB David Long, DT Marquise Copeland, OLB Travin Howard, QB John Wolford
QUESTIONABLE: C Brian Allen
Packers
IR: DL Rashan Gary, DB Eric Stokes
OUT: OT David Bakhtiari
Data to Know Provided by Sports Info Solutions
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Rams Pass Offense vs. Packers
- There's no need to put Mayfield's stats into this because of the lack of data. Instead, we will focus on what concepts work against the Packers.
- The two routes that have been the most effective against the Packers are go routes and crossers.
- Since Week 11, three Rams' players have run more than 20 crossing or go routes: Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek and Tutu Atwell.
- Atwell's speed makes him the most effective, as he has a 39% target share and averages 5.61 yards per route run.
- Skowronek runs these less frequently than Jefferson but has been more productive, averaging 2.27 yards per route compared to Jefferson's 0.75.
- Tyler Higbee also runs these routes but does not get targeted at a high rate.
Rams Rush Offense vs. Packers
- Cam Akers is the lead back for the Rams and has scored in back-to-back games.
- This year, the Packers run defense has given up five yards per carry and 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs.
- Six of the 10 rushing touchdowns have been in the last four weeks.
- Kyren Williams will also work in, but he is mainly utilized as a receiver.
- The Rams' offensive line has the advantage against the Packers' run defense, according to The 33rd Team's Trenches tool.
Packers Pass Offense vs. Rams
- Even without David Bakhtiari, the Packers have the advantage in pass protection, but the Rams are known to bring five rushers at a high rate, which could allow them to generate pressure regardless.
- Rodgers averages 6.8 yards per attempt and has a 64.3% completion rate and a 22-9 pass touchdown to interception ratio.
- The Rams have given up 7.3 yards per attempt and get pressure at the second-lowest rate in the NFL.
- The Rams' primary coverages will be Cover 3 and Cover 4 in this game.
- Rodgers averages 6.8 yards per attempt against these coverages with a 6-1 pass touchdown to interception ratio.
- The Packers' top-five targets vs. those coverages are Josiah Deguara, Robert Tonyan, Christian Watson, Randall Cobb, and Doubs.
- Tonyan leads the team in target share at 18.9%, and Cobb leads them in yards per route at 2.27.
- Since Week 10, Watson has been the leader in target share and has a 41.2% air yardage share.
Packers Rush Offense vs. Rams
- The Rams can't contain the edge, so I expect Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon and Watson to get carries.
- The Rams' backup edge players struggle to keep contain in their run fits, so Watson should be utilized on jet sweeps a couple of times.
- Jones averages one more yard per carry on the edge than Dillon.
- The Rams have given up 3.5 yards per carry and have kept their run defense respectable defense without Aaron Donald.
- The trenches tool gives the Packers a -15 matchup, but I don't expect the Packers to run in the interior.
Overall Thoughts
The Packers' offense will be attacking the perimeter for the Rams, and I am intrigued to see what defensive coordinator Raheem Morris has in store to counter the lack of containment on the edge.
Watson is the chess piece that has a chance to score as a rusher and pass catcher tonight. Doubs is back in the lineup, but with all that time missed, he might be a little rusty. Jones and Dillon won't have enough room to work with in the middle but will have the advantage on the outside.
The Rams' offense will be difficult to predict, but I expect them to focus on the weakness of the Packers, and that's deep shots down the field. Atwell's speed will separate from their corners, and that's who I am expecting to lead the team in receiving work. Near the goal line, I would expect a lot of Akers, and they have the advantage in the trenches.
Multiplier Pool
- RB Aaron Jones
- WR Christian Watson
- RB Cam Akers
- WR Tutu Atwell
FLEX Pool
- QB Aaron Rodgers
- QB Baker Mayfield
- WR Van Jefferson
- RB A.J. Dillon
- WR Randall Cobb
- TE Robert Tonyan
- WR Ben Skowronek
- DST Packers
- K Mason Crosby
- K Matt Gay
- DST Rams
- TE Josiah Deguara
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