NFL Analysis
1/8/25
11 min read
Ranking Every 2024 NFL Team By Yards Per Play Differential Entering Playoffs
Football is a turf war, and this is how you measure it.
For years, one of the stats analysts and gamblers love to use in assessing how good or bad a team is performing is yards per play differential. While it sounds complex, it’s pretty simple.
How many yards does your offense gain on the average play vs. how many yards does your defense allow per play? If you have any hope of winning or even getting to a Super Bowl, the difference better be positive. This is a measure of how teams play on a down-by-down basis where the impact of one or two big plays or flukey circumstances can impact the results.
2024 NFL Yards Per Play Differential at Midseason
| Rank | Team | Off | Def | - / + | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore | 6.85 | 5.19 | +1.66 | Lamar, you have everything you need to win a title |
| 2 | San Francisco | 6.23 | 5.24 | +0.99 | Imagine what could have been if they were healthy |
| 3 | Green Bay | 6.14 | 5.16 | +0.98 | A rising power, but they are probably a year away |
| 4 | Philadelphia | 5.60 | 4.74 | +0.86 | D has just been staggering in the second half |
| 5 | Tampa Bay | 6.21 | 5.46 | +0.75 | Mayfield has become the QB so many expected. Bravo |
| 6 | Detroit | 6.23 | 5.72 | +0.51 | Aaron Glenn is making it work with his MASH unit D |
| 7 | Buffalo | 5.96 | 5.52 | +0.44 | Can probably beat anybody except Baltimore, Philly |
| 8 | Cincinnati | 5.75 | 5.44 | +0.31 | Improved in the final 5 games, but that’s little solace |
| 9 | Washington | <5.71 | 5.40 | +0.31 | Washington hadn’t won more than 10 games since 1991 |
| 10 | Arizona | 5.88 | 5.57 | +0.31 | Cards are improving, but is there a ceiling with Murray? |
| 11 | Minnesota | 5.60 | 5.29 | +0.31 | Lions exposed Darnold, but not as bad as it looked. |
| 12 | Denver | 5.23 | 4.93 | +0.30 | Broncos still need to get tougher, but they have a QB |
| 13 | Atlanta | 5.79 | 5.50 | +0.29 | Penix looks the part, the Falcons defense does not |
| 14 | N.Y. Jets | 5.22 | 4.99 | +0.23 | A catastrophically botched season by management |
| 15 | Seattle | 5.48 | 5.31 | +0.17 | Just like their QB, Seattle is a league-average team |
| 16 | L.A. Chargers | 5.42 | 5.32 | +0.10 | Nobody preaches toughness like Jim Harbaugh |
| 17 | Houston | 5.14 | 5.10 | +0.04 | OL regressed badly, but team is on the right track |
| 18 | Indianapolis | 5.47 | 5.52 | -0.05 | Colts need a serious plan for Anthony Richardson |
| 19 | Miami | 5.11 | 5.28 | -0.17 | Even the best Xs & Os don’t overcome lack of toughness |
| 20 | Kansas City | 5.11 | 5.31 | -0.20 | This is just a bizarre stat for a team that could win it all |
| 21 | Tennessee | 5.01 | 5.25 | -0.24 | No. 1 pick is an asset, but not the normal value |
| 22 | L.A. Rams | 5.42 | 5.68 | -0.26 | Great QBs can cover up a lot of stench |
| 23 | Pittsburgh | 5.02 | 5.37 | -0.35 | Got worse in final 5 games. Desperately need a QB |
| 24 | New Orleans | 5.27 | 5.77 | -0.50 | Does the next coach tear it down or go patchwork? |
| 25 | Las Vegas | 4.84 | 5.38 | -0.54 | Dear Mark Davis, let Tom Brady run the show |
| 26 | New England | 4.83 | 5.46 | -0.63 | Firing Mayo is a bad look, but not really a bad decision |
| 27 | Dallas | 5.04 | 5.77 | -0.73 | How will Jerry convince fans he’s “all in” this year? |
| 28 | Jacksonville | 5.25 | 5.89 | -0.74 | It’s amazing how politically conniving Trent Baalke is |
| 29 | Carolina | 5.10 | 5.96 | -0.86 | Bryce Young’s 180-degree turn is a stunning revival |
| 30 | N.Y. Giants | 4.71 | 5.61 | -0.90 | Wonder how Shedur Sanders would handle NY media? |
| 31 | Cleveland | 4.57 | 5.59 | -1.02 | Browns fans face another year of the Watson nightmare |
| 32 | Chicago | 4.53 | 5.86 | -1.33 | I get the feeling the Bears could screw up a royal flush |
Top Takeaway
CHIEFS ARE STRANGEST TOP SEED EVER
As if trying to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls wasn’t enough of a challenge, the Kansas City Chiefs have added a second level of difficulty to their quest as the playoffs begin.
The Chiefs are trying to become only the second team in the 58-year history of the Super Bowl era to win a title despite being outgained for the season on a per-play basis. The only team to win a title despite being outgained on the average play is the 2001 New England Patriots, the first of the six titles under the combination of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
This season, the Chiefs were outgained by an average of 0.20 yards per play. In 2001, the Patriots were outgained by an average of 0.39 yards per play before going on their magical playoff run, which included the Tuck Rule game against the Raiders and the massive upset of the Rams.
That aside, having a positive yards-per-play differential is an overwhelming indicator of success. This season, 11 of the 14 teams in the playoffs had a positive yards per play differential, led by Baltimore with a staggering positive 1.66 yards. The Ravens gained almost 7 yards on every offensive play and allowed just more than 5 yards on every defensive play.
In 2023, 13 of the 14 playoff teams had a positive differential.
And Super Bowl winners tilt heavily toward teams that dominate in terms of a positive differential. Of the 58 Super Bowls, the differential breaks down like this:
- One with a negative differential.
- 13 with a positive differential of less than 0.5 yards.
- 22 with a differential between 0.5 to 1.0 yards.
- 22 with a differential of 1.0 or more.
The Chiefs, under Patrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid, are further proof of this trend. In their three Super Bowl-winning seasons in the past five years, they had a positive differential of at least 0.8 yards each time, putting them firmly in the majority of Super Bowl winners when it comes to differential. In fact, despite going 11-6 in the regular season in 2023, the Chiefs were playing much more like a 13- or 14-win team.
By contrast, their negative differential for this season lends credence to the observation by many that the Chiefs have been lucky to go 15-2 on the way to the No. 1 seed. They went 9-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less, including some improbable wins. That included blocking a field goal by Denver on the last play of a game and the Raiders botching a snap for a fumble in the closing seconds of another game.
On the flip side, the Chiefs may also not be as bad as the negative differential indicates. Their mediocre stats mostly concern the style of play they have been forced into. Because of injuries and shuffling along the offensive line and the loss of WR Rashee Rice to injury early in the season, the Chiefs have become more of a running team than ever before.
Their 450 rushing attempts this season are the most in total and average per game in the seven years since Mahomes became the starter. For the first time under Mahomes and Reid, the Chiefs will attempt less than 200 passes more than runs, which is a stunning departure for the pass-faithful Reid. Despite that, Mahomes has been sacked a career-high 36 times this season, which speaks to Kansas City’s problems along the offensive line.
In short, the Chiefs are playing small ball more than ever. The result is that the margins are smaller, particularly when it comes to winning games or outgaining opponents. Additionally, a lot of the negative differential is driven by the season finale at Denver, in which the Chiefs lost 38-0 and were outgained by 381 yards. Take away that game, in which the Chiefs rested almost everyone, and they are closer to having a basically neutral differential for the season.
Finally, it’s important to note that the Chiefs still outgained their opponents for the season because they ran 65 more plays overall, outscored their opponents by 59 points, won the turnover battle by a plus-6 margin, and played very well down the stretch by winning three games in an 11-day stretch to secure the No. 1 seed. Those three victories were by an average of nearly two touchdowns each, including wins against playoff qualifiers Houston and Pittsburgh.
In other words, a negative differential for this team may be more understandable.
AFC Playoff Bracket By YPPD
Baltimore (+1.66) at Pittsburgh (-0.35)
The only thing that prevents this game from being a walkover is that there’s familiarity. That said, the Baltimore Ravens handled the Pittsburgh Steelers effectively in their last matchup and should have swept the two games if not for a career-worst game. But there are two deeper points to make about this game.
First, if the Ravens and Lamar Jackson don’t win a Super Bowl this year when everything is so set up for them, they will have squandered back-to-back great years. The Ravens also dominated the NFL in yards per play differential last year but then screwed up their playoff game against Kansas City. This year is huge for the Ravens and Jackson, and it’s about legacy.
Second, the Steelers need to make a bold move at quarterback. It’s that simple. This is the second year in a row they have made the playoffs with a negative differential. Stop worrying about whether to keep Mike Tomlin and get a quarterback who can stabilize the team the way Terry Bradshaw and Ben Roethlisberger did in your championship seasons. That’s the issue.
Score Prediction: Baltimore 30, Pittsburgh 17
L.A. Chargers (+0.10) at Houston (+0.04)
This game comes down to toughness and consistency because neither team is all that great right now.
The Los Angeles Chargers are in the first year of a rebuild, and the Houston Texans have regressed from last year because of injuries along the offensive line and at wide receiver. The quarterbacks in this game are basically equal, and each has roughly the same turnover margin, meaning that the game will come down to some basic stuff.
Right now, the Chargers are better at that basic stuff. That’s not to say that the Chargers are vastly better than Houston, but the Texans are 5-6 since opening the season at 5-1. They have gone 0-4 against playoff teams in that stretch.
The Chargers are 8-3 since opening the season at 3-3, although they are only 1-3 against playoff teams. The margins are small between the two teams, but the momentum is clearly with the Chargers.
Score Prediction: L.A. Chargers 23, Houston 16.
Denver (+0.30) at Buffalo (+0.44)
This should be a relatively easy game for the Buffalo Bills. The Denver Broncos had a nice season and may have even found a quarterback of the future in Bo Nix.
But just looking at the quarterbacks and comparing Nix to Josh Allen should tell you how this game should play out. Few coaches are as good at disrupting a game as Denver’s Sean Payton. Reflexively, Buffalo’s Sean McDermott tends to get tight in games like this when he knows he’s a clear favorite.
Again, this should be a relatively easy game for the Bills, but …
Score Prediction: Buffalo 27, Denver 19
NFC Playoff Bracket By YPPD
Green Bay (+0.98) at Philadelphia (+0.86)
Four months later, the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles get back together after meeting in the season opener in Brazil.
The opener was a five-point Eagles win, and the yardage differential for the season numbers indicates that this should be another close game. Don’t be fooled. The Eagles are playing way better football and have gone 12-1 since a 2-2 start.
That includes a 5-1 stretch in which they beat four playoff teams, including the Rams and Baltimore on the road. The Eagles' defense has allowed 300 yards or more only twice in that stretch. Meanwhile, the Packers have put up great numbers against bad teams but have gone 2-5 against playoff teams, including a combined 0-5 against Philly, Minnesota, and Detroit.
Score Prediction: Philadelphia 29, Green Bay 13
Washington (+0.31) at Tampa Bay (+0.75)
This looks like it’s going to be fun.
Jayden Daniels against Baker Mayfield has the makings of a shootout in which both quarterbacks will scramble around at different points and then make highlight reel throws.
Mayfield still has a propensity to throw some balls to the other team (he led the league with 16 interceptions), but that yards-per-play differential for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is real. It’s especially real when you consider how porous the Bucs' defense has been at times this season.
Austin Ekeler returns from injury this week to give the Washington Commanders another dynamic receiving threat out of the backfield. The Commanders can’t expect to be much healthier, and Tampa Bay gets home-field advantage.
Score Prediction: Washington 24, Tampa Bay 23
Minnesota (+0.31) at L.A. Rams (-0.26)
There’s no question that the Minnesota Vikings have a better overall roster than the Los Angeles Rams. But certain aspects of this game don’t bode well for the Vikings after going 14-3 in the regular season.
First, the Vikings’ advantage on defense in terms of scheme under coordinator Brian Flores has started to fade as the season has progressed. After creating 16 turnovers in the first nine games, the Vikings have only five in the past eight games, including only one in the past three.
It’s hard to imagine Flores coming up with anything that will fool Rams QB Matthew Stafford. Conversely, Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is at a critical stretch of his career when he has to show something serious to get another long-term shot at starting (and a contract that goes with that). Against Detroit on Sunday night, Darnold flopped against a very suspect defense.
Score Prediction: Rams 20, Vikings 16
