NFL Analysis
12/5/24
10 min read
Ranking Every NFL Team by Yards Per Play Differential At Season's Three-Quarter Mark
Football is a turf war, and this is how you measure it.
For years, one of the stats analysts and gamblers love to use in assessing how good or bad a team is performing is yards per play differential. While it sounds complex, it’s pretty simple.
How many yards does your offense gain on the average play vs. how many yards does your defense allow per play? If you hope to win or even get to a Super Bowl, the difference better be positive. This is a measure of how teams play on a down-by-down basis where the impact of one or two big plays or flukey circumstances can impact the results.
| Team | Off | Def | -/+ | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | 6.81 | 5.42 | +1.39 | Third-down/pass D are killing what could be a title year |
| Philadelphia | 5.80 | 4.77 | +1.03 | Eagles were at -0.45 at 4 games. An amazing turnaround |
| San Francisco | 6.22 | 5.19 | +1.03 | Impressive considering the injuries. This team must get younger |
| Green Bay | 6.26 | 5.37 | +0.89 | Offense has taken a jump the past four weeks |
| Detroit | 6.20 | 5.32 | +0.88 | Despite the loss of Aidan Hutchinson, the defense has improved |
| Minnesota | 5.64 | 5.11 | +0.53 | Offensive numbers have steadily regressed, but they have a shot |
| Arizona | 5.88 | 5.41 | +0.47 | D is starting to gain traction and the O is better than you think |
| Buffalo | 5.81 | 5.38 | +0.43 | Josh Allen having his best year and the pass D is top notch |
| Washington | 5.91 | 5.52 | +0.39 | Bye week comes at a critical time for a team that’s banged up |
| Denver | 5.21 | 4.87 | +0.34 | Got lit up on MNF, but Broncos D still No. 2 in yards allowed |
| Atlanta | 5.72 | 5.49 | +0.23 | Best of a still-weak NFC South. First-round home loss likely |
| Tampa Bay | 5.94 | 5.72 | +0.22 | Difference between them and the Falcons is almost nothing |
| Houston | 5.20 | 5.03 | +0.17 | Were at +0.62 after 4 weeks. OL problems caused the fade |
| Cincinnati | 5.77 | 5.66 | +0.11 | This is a better team than its record, but not that much better |
| L.A. Chargers | 5.32 | 5.24 | +0.08 | They are outplaying their numbers because of their style of play |
| Seattle | 5.43 | 5.36 | +0.07 | Mediocrity, thy name is Seahawks. |
| N.Y. Jets | 4.92 | 4.85 | +0.07 | This team is such a mess when it shouldn’t be so bad. |
| Pittsburgh | 5.24 | 5.35 | -0.11 | Moving to Russell Wilson made them reasonable contenders |
| Kansas City | 5.19 | 5.30 | -0.11 | Chiefs are really getting into dangerous territory on this stat. |
| Miami | 5.15 | 5.34 | -0.19 | Loss to Packers was expected, but it should’ve been competitive |
| L.A. Rams | 5.41 | 5.68 | -0.27 | Can they keep Stafford happy/engaged to keep rebuild going? |
| Tennessee | 4.93 | 5.22 | -0.29 | Will Levis Experience looks as unappetizing as mayo in coffee |
| Indianapolis | 5.35 | 5.65 | -0.30 | Fun win on Sunday, not sure it really means much |
| Las Vegas | 4.89 | 5.24 | -0.35 | They had their Super Bowl by almost beating KC. Now find a QB |
| New Orleans | 5.56 | 6.05 | -0.49 | Question facing Saints: Do they tear it down or patchwork it? |
| Carolina | 5.03 | 5.79 | -0.76 | Bryce Young showing signs of growth, but there are miles to go |
| Jacksonville | 5.32 | 6.09 | -0.77 | As bad as Trevor Lawrence has been, the D is way worse |
| New England | 4.73 | 5.50 | -0.77 | Hopefully Jerod Mayo knows that you have to build around a QB |
| Dallas | 4.94 | 5.79 | -0.85 | Life is just not as much fun when the Cowboys are this bad |
| N.Y. Giants | 4.68 | 5.67 | -0.99 | They need a quarterback in a year when the draft is pretty weak |
| Cleveland | 4.74 | 5.80 | -1.06 | Jameis Winston is a massive upgrade even if he’s not very good |
| Chicago | 4.63 | 5.75 | -1.12 | This is a great job … as long as the coach has some control |
Yards Per Play Differential Ranking Takeaways
Philadelphia's Impressive Improvement 
The Philadelphia Eagles have gone from a team on the cusp of being written off to a possible Super Bowl favorite at this rate.
It is not off base to say that the Eagles have become the greatest modern example of how quickly teams can change in the NFL. More importantly, they are an example of why early-season performance is no longer any real gauge of overall success.
In essence, September has become an elaborate version of the exhibition season. With so few veterans playing in August, as coaches protect their best players, September is when players get back to real hitting and tackling.
Thus, getting off to a 2-2 with bad peripheral stats like the Eagles did this year is not necessarily predictive. It certainly hasn’t been, as the Eagles have reeled off eight consecutive victories in dominant fashion. The problem is that plenty of people thought the first month of this season was just a continuation of what they witnessed last year when the Eagles went 1-6 down the stretch and were routed in the first round of the playoffs against Tampa Bay.
So, how have we gone from a team that was 2-2 and allowing an ugly negative 0.45 yards per play in combined offensive and defensive play to a team that is now 10-2 and averaging a positive-1.03 yards per play?
That’s the biggest swing I have seen during the course of a season in the 10 years I have tracked this stat. It is punctuated by the fact that the Eagles, who now rank No. 2 in Yard Per Play Differential, just dispatched the No. 1 team with their victory in Baltimore on Sunday.
The answer, as with all things in football, is multi-layered. But it starts with two essential things. First, the Eagles pass defense has become staggeringly good. Second, Saquon Barkley is the real deal.
Let’s start with the pass defense. In the first four games, the Eagles allowed at least 233 yards passing three times. In the past eight games, they have allowed more than 200 yards passing only twice, including a high mark of 222 yards against Cincinnati, one of the top passing teams in the league.
The guys stirring the drink for the Eagles’ pass defense are defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and defensive tackle Jalen Carter. In his first year with the Eagles, Fangio quickly got the team up to speed with his well-established and successful schemes. Fangio has always been among the best defensive coordinators in the league.
Carter, in his second season after an up-and-down rookie year, has 4.5 sacks, 10 hits on the quarterback, and eight tackles for loss in those eight games. He had zero sacks, two hits on the quarterback, and two tackles for loss in the first four games. This is all part of what appears to be great maturation by Carter, who could be the most talented defensive player in the 2023 draft and possibly the most immature.
As for Barkley, his highlights are well known, especially among the fantasy football players who have feasted on his success. Suffice it to say, the Eagles running game has gone from very good to spectacular. In the first four games, Philadelphia was averaging 153.75 yards a game. During the past eight, it averages 206.5.
And yes, a lot of that work was done against the weaker teams when the Eagles beat Cleveland, the New York Giants, Dallas, and Jacksonville. But the last three games have been against Washington at home and then on the road against the Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore.
In short, the Eagles appear back to the form that got them to the Super Bowl in the 2022 season. This is impressive, considering that only two months ago, some people were wondering if they would fire the head coach.
CHIEFS' IMPORTANT GAUNTLET
It’s hard to argue that the Kansas City Chiefs are struggling, given their 11-1 record, but it’s clear they are not dominating opponents the way they have the previous two years on the way to winning back-to-back Super Bowls. They are 9-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less and have barely gotten by Carolina and Las Vegas the past two weeks since being beaten in Buffalo.
But if it’s a challenge, the Chiefs need to kick-start their focus as they hope to make history and win a third straight Super Bowl. The final five games are the testing ground. The Chiefs face the Chargers, Cleveland, Houston, Pittsburgh, and Denver. Three of those games (Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Denver) are on the road.
While the Chiefs have already clinched a playoff berth, they must show they can play better. That’s not necessarily measured only by winning; it is measured by efficiency. The Chiefs need to reverse the trend in the past eight games.
During the first four games, the Chiefs stood at positive-0.13 yards per play. This is not great, but it's a long way from bad and somewhat typical of teams that have gone to or won multiple Super Bowls over a stretch of time. The New England Patriots regularly outperformed their YPPD numbers in the course of their Tom Brady/Bill Belichick dynasty.
However, after 12 games, the Chiefs are negative-0.11 yards per play. Those who believe in the Chiefs argue that they simply know how to win and can rise to a challenge as necessary. Some also fear that the Chiefs are in trouble and believe they are playing bored.
During the next five games, the Chiefs won’t be able to get by being bored.
49ERS' INTRIGUING SEASON
The San Francisco 49ers continue to have one of the best YPPDs in the league despite the massive number of injuries they have dealt with this year, including Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk on offense and Dre Greenlaw (among others) on defense.
While the 49ers have some obvious areas of need (they have to get younger at key positions, especially along the offensive line), one thing is becoming clear to those who watch carefully: Brock Purdy continues to be good despite the losses around him.
Sure, Purdy has issues. He hasn’t solved a lot of the problems that the 49ers have inside the red zone, and he’s missing high on a fair number of passes over the middle because opposing teams can collapse the pocket a little faster this year.
However, the 49ers remain No. 3 in YPPD largely because of a passing attack averaging 7.4 net yards per play. While Purdy may not be truly elite, he’s certainly the long-term answer for the 49ers, and this season has proved it, even if the 49ers look like they will miss the playoffs.
Quick Hitters
- One of the staggering stats this season is that Carolina has run only 698 plays and has had 813 plays run against them. One of the big problems is that the Panthers' offense can’t stay on the field regularly (they are averaging only 16 first downs a game). The other big problem is that the Carolina defense allows an average of more than 24 first downs a game.
- The best thing Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury did for Jayden Daniels was listen to his young quarterback. One of the first things Kingsbury did after Washington drafted Daniels was ask the young quarterback to name his five favorite plays. That immediately helped make Daniels comfortable.
- How much better is the Steelers' offense with Russell Wilson as the starting quarterback? They are averaging 389.7 yards a game, with Wilson playing. They are averaging 298.3 yards without him.
