NFL Analysis
1/10/24
2 min read
Ranking Every NFL Team By Yards Per Play Differential Entering Playoffs
Gamblers abhor playing what they call the “chalk” by taking obvious winners, but there are some numbers that make it pretty obvious who the best teams in the NFL are.
If you go by a simple combination of yards per play differential and what you can see with your own eyes, the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens seem to be headed for a showdown in the Super Bowl. The 49ers lead the league with a 1.63 positive yards per play differential (YPPD) this year. Baltimore is at 1.23. Those are both impressive numbers.
The Miami Dolphins are slightly better than Baltimore at 1.36, but a lot of that is the residual effect of an impressive early season and ignores that Miami is both injured and not very good against playoff-caliber teams (1-5 this season). The Dolphins are interesting, but they need to get healthy next season, and they need another year with Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator.
For now, however, the first round of the playoffs will see if anybody can get hot enough to knock off either the 49ers or the Ravens.
Yards Per Play Differential aFter Week 18
| Rank | Team | Offensive Avg | Defensive Avg | Net | Comment |
| 1 | 49ers | 6.61 | 4.98 | 1.63 | Their margin per pass is 3.3, which is staggering. |
| 2 | Dolphins | 6.48 | 5.12 | 1.36 | Late-season injuries on defense killed what they were building. |
| 3 | Ravens | 5.85 | 4.62 | 1.23 | Their defense is amazing, and Lamar Jackson is playing his best ever. |
| 4 | Chiefs | 5.53 | 4.71 | 0.82 | Will they waste the best defense of the Mahomes era? |
| 5 | Cowboys | 5.63 | 5.02 | 0.61 | The numbers look good, but this team is fatally flawed. |
| 6 | Bills | 5.71 | 5.14 | 0.57 | Some fans complain about this defense. What are they thinking? |
| 7 | Lions | 5.9 | 5.51 | 0.39 | Dan Campbell’s approach after the Dallas fiasco was perfect. |
| 8 | Vikings | 5.52 | 5.17 | 0.35 | Their defensive improvements were great but sadly wasted. |
| 9 | Rams | 5.58 | 5.33 | 0.25 | They got Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams in the fifth round. Are you kidding me? |
| 10 | Browns | 4.81 | 4.57 | 0.24 | This defense is so good it makes Joe Flacco’s interceptions look like good plays. |
| 11 | Packers | 5.58 | 5.37 | 0.21 | Life after Aaron Rodgers looks pretty good right now. |
| 12 | Falcons | 5.2 | 5.01 | 0.19 | The numbers are way better than you’d think for this boring team. |
| 13 | Texans | 5.37 | 5.21 | 0.16 | Two great rookies and maybe the coach of the year? Life doesn’t get much better. |
| 14 | Seahawks | 5.52 | 5.5 | 0.02 | They ran a league-low 995 offensive plays, which is troubling. |
| 15 | Colts | 5.23 | 5.23 | 0.00 | Like the Texans, the Colts were better per play than Jacksonville. |
| 16 | Eagles | 5.42 | 5.48 | -0.06 | Their yards allowed per play increased by .5 in the second half of the season. |
| 17 | Patriots | 4.6 | 4.7 | -0.10 | Their defense was solid but was also a reflection of how bad the offense was all season. |
| 18 | Saints | 5.11 | 5.28 | -0.17 | This team could use Jon Gruden as offensive coordinator. Do they have the guts? |
| 19 | Jaguars | 5.18 | 5.41 | -0.23 | They had the most disappointing performance in the league. |
| 20 | Jets | 4.34 | 4.57 | -0.23 | Only Carolina had a worse offensive performance per play. |
| 21 | Titans | 4.9 | 5.2 | -0.30 | This team has an odd mix of old/young, which usually doesn’t work long term. |
| 22 | Raiders | 4.87 | 5.17 | -0.30 | Them winning three of their last four doesn’t mean anything really changed. |
| 23 | Bears | 5.01 | 5.32 | -0.31 | Chicago's defense was great down the stretch. Justin Fields was just OK. |
| 24 | Buccaneers | 5.08 | 5.41 | -0.33 | Baker Mayfield was solid, but this roster needs a serious makeover. |
| 25 | Steelers | 5.03 | 5.42 | -0.39 | Pittsburgh making the playoffs shouldn’t obscure serious its offensive issues. |
| 26 | Chargers | 5.06 | 5.54 | -0.48 | Coaches are licking their chops at the idea of coaching Justin Herbert. |
| 27 | Cardinals | 5.16 | 5.7 | -0.54 | This team played hard under Jonathan Gannon, now it needs more players. |
| 28 | Panthers | 4.11 | 4.92 | -0.81 | It’s tough for a team to rebuild when the owner is impetuous. |
| 29 | Broncos | 4.99 | 5.82 | -0.83 | The Russell Wilson lesson: Be careful what you wish for. |
| 30 | Bengals | 5.17 | 6.04 | -0.87 | The team's injuries on offense obscured some serious regression on defense. |
| 31 | Commanders | 5.02 | 5.92 | -0.90 | What’s the plan for the quarterback they draft at No. 2 overall? |
| 32 | Giants | 4.5 | 5.64 | -1.14 | Giving up 85 sacks in one season? Quarterbacks deserve lifetime medical coverage. |
Here’s a look at how you can expect the first round of the playoffs to play out with the YPPD taken into account.
AFC Playoffs
Pittsburgh (-0.39 yards per play) at Buffalo (+0.57)
On paper, this game will be lopsided. It’s hard to imagine the Pittsburgh Steelers winning without pass rusher T.J. Watt. Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen could get sloppy with the ball, but even that might not be enough to help a Steelers offense that has looked only marginally better with Mason Rudolph under center.
Score: Buffalo 24, Pittsburgh 10
Miami (+1.36) at Kansas City (+0.82)
This is a rematch of a game played in Germany earlier this season where the Kansas City Chiefs built a 21-0 halftime lead and then held off Miami for a 21-14 win. The game was not as close as the score indicated, but it was an early indicator of a big issue for the Chiefs.
Kansas City’s defense was great — it limited Tua Tagovailoa to only 193 yards passing and Tyreek Hill to eight catches for only 62 yards. However, Kansas City’s offense went dormant in the second half and failed to put the game away, as you might expect. That became a theme for the entire season.
That said, the temperature should be in single-digits in Kansas City by Sunday night. That's not exactly Florida weather.
Score: Kansas City 23, Miami 14
Cleveland (+0.24) at Houston (+0.16)
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is so clearly the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year that it’s not worth discussing. He has been wonderful. Stroud finished the season with two strong games to close out the AFC South division title and didn’t throw an interception over any of his final five games.
However, there are ways to attack Stroud by throwing coverages at him that make him hold the ball too long. He opened the season with 11 sacks in his first two games and went through a recent stretch with 13 over three games.
In this game against the Cleveland Browns, he faces defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz and a pass rush led by Myles Garrett.
Score: Cleveland 22, Houston 13
NFC Playoffs
Green Bay (+0.21) at Dallas (+0.61)
The Green Bay Packers are one of the great stories from this season after opening it with a 2-5 record and then closing it with a 6-2 run. That said, the Dallas Cowboys' speed on defense plays up at home, and it’s hard to see Jordan Love outdueling Dak Prescott in this one.
This game will be closer than Dallas fans want to imagine, but it won't actually be scary.
Score: Dallas 33, Green Bay 20
Los Angeles Rams (+0.25) at Detroit (+0.39)
Quarterback Matthew Stafford returns to his first NFL home after leaving it to win a Super Bowl. Jared Goff gets a chance to avenge being traded by the Los Angeles Rams and coach Sean McVay. Much will hinge on whether Detroit Lions TE Sam LaPorta plays (and, more importantly, whether he plays effectively). If he does, then the Lions should hold serve for a long-awaited playoff win.
Score: Detroit 27, Los Angeles Rams 26
Philadelphia (-0.06) at Tampa Bay (-0.33)
The Philadelphia Eagles have become a dumpster fire over the past six weeks, losing five of those games. The regression they suffered after losing both their coordinators has only gotten worse. Players around the league talk about how vanilla the Eagles' offense has become, and the defense has been even worse — even after Matt Patricia took over as the coordinator six weeks ago.
However, it’s not like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are very good. This is the only matchup of teams with a negative YPPD.
Score: Philadelphia 23, Tampa Bay 19
Other Takeaways
The Josh Allen Issue
I have a stat Buffalo coach Sean McDermott would be wise to show Allen:
He had three games this season where he didn’t throw an interception. The Bills were 3-0 in those games and won by a combined score of 117-30 (an average of 39-10). Those three games were against Miami, Dallas and New England.
In other words, Buffalo smoked two playoff teams when Allen simply played mistake-free.
This is not to say that Allen shouldn’t take chances or ever make a mistake. That’s implausible. But he's leading a team that could easily win a Super Bowl this year if he would just reduce the mistakes. He had a career-high 18 interceptions, and those picks contributed directly to four losses.
Of course, Bills fans hate to hear that. Some of them went on a rampage against me with two weeks left in the season and claimed I slighted Allen when I suggested that Lamar Jackson was the clear frontrunner for NFL MVP.
Their argument is that Allen accounted for more touchdowns than Jackson. Allen finished with 29 passing and 15 rushing touchdowns for a total of 44, which is significantly more than Jackson’s total of 29 (24 passing and five rushing. However, it completely ignores the issue of turnovers.
In that respect, Allen had his worst season with 18 total interceptions and raised his interception rate to 3.1 per 100 throws, which is the second-highest of his career. That was also more than double Jackson’s rate of 1.5 per 100. Jackson had seven total picks.
Bills fans can try all sorts of ways to dismiss that issue, but it is simply irresponsible. Buffalo enters the AFC playoffs as the No. 2 seed and has every ingredient necessary to win the Super Bowl. That includes a great quarterback. Unfortunately, that quarterback makes life incredibly hard on a defense already stressed by injury.
In three of Buffalo’s six losses this year, Allen threw interceptions in negative territory that created points for opponents. In the loss to the New York Jets in the opener, he threw three picks. Against Miami in the season finale, he had two picks, one of which helped make the result much closer than necessary.
One way or another, Allen must get his interceptions under control.
The Kirk Cousins Issue
Despite the Minnesota Vikings going 7-10 with nine games with three backup quarterbacks starting at one point or another, they had a very impressive season in terms of YPPD. The Vikings finished at +0.35 yards despite the constant movement at the league’s most important position.
A lot of credit goes to first-year defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who helped that side of the ball make huge strides. Likewise, coach Kevin O’Connell kept things going as reasonably as he could. O’Connell is exceptionally demanding of his quarterbacks in terms of what they do pre-snap, so playing for him is no easy feat.
But that brings us to Kirk Cousins, who is due to be a free agent and can’t be franchised by Minnesota. For many reasons, it’s not hard to imagine that Cousins, who will be 36 when next season starts and is coming off a torn Achilles tendon, could get upward of $45 million a year on a three- to five-year contract.
While most fans think of Cousins as an average quarterback, he is clearly the best veteran on the market. Moreover, even if six quarterbacks go in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels are expected to go in the first with J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix and Bo Nix as possibilities), there are seven teams (Chicago, Washington, New England, Atlanta, Denver, Las Vegas and Minnesota) with likely needs at the position.
Sure, the Chicago Bears could stick with Justin Fields, but that seems unlikely given the presence of Williams and Maye at the top and with Fields only having one year left on his deal plus a $25 million option in 2025. That means that at least one team with an obvious need and other teams with a subtle need (New York Giants, Seattle, New Orleans and perhaps Arizona) will be looking for a passer.
If the Bears trade Fields, that might fill the need for one of these teams. Likewise, Russell Wilson could enter the mix once the Denver Broncos let him go.
Still, at least one or two of those previously mentioned teams will likely have to step up before the draft to get a quarterback, which means Cousins could be in the driver’s seat in any negotiation.
If, for example, Minnesota has to bid against Atlanta, Denver or Las Vegas for Cousins, it’s easy to see Cousins getting upward of $45 million on average. Right now, the top five quarterbacks in terms of average salary are Joe Burrow at $55 million, Justin Herbert at $52.5 million, Lamar Jackson at $52 million, Jalen Hurts at $51 million and Wilson at $48 million.
Odds and Ends
- Fields made some steps forward in his third year in the league. He cut his interception percentage from a horrific 3.6 percent in his first two years to a workable (but not great) 2.4 percent this year. He saw a small uptick in his completion percentage to 61 percent and cut both his sack percentage and average number of runs per game. He also missed four games with injury. The issue remains that Fields might not have come far enough, fast enough. Important markers such as yards per pass attempt and the Bears' overall yards per play were still paltry at 6.9 and 5.1. If Fields was making these strides at the end of Year 2, it might be worth turning down a shot at a franchise quarterback such as Caleb Williams. Not so much at the end of Year 3.
- In the chart, I noted the Seattle Seahawks ran a league-low 995 plays on offense. The Seahawks' opponent ran a league-high 1,147 plays. Seattle managed to finish 9-8 this season, which lines up with their overall +0.02 yards per play differential. However, this team is flirting with disaster if it doesn’t improve its offense drastically this offseason so that it can at least hold the ball longer. You simply can’t have year after year where opponents run 152 more plays per season. It wears out your defense. Seattle was awful on third downs, only converting 36 percent, and it ran only 207 overall plays on third down (the third-fewest in the league). The Seahawks are just not holding onto the ball very long. Yes, there are some successful teams that don’t run a lot of plays. San Francisco ran only 1,024 plays, the sixth-fewest in the league. But the 49ers also only allowed opponents to run 1,038 plays. That’s a difference of only 14 plays, not 152.
- Kyler Murray is expected to get another season with the Arizona Cardinals to prove himself, in large part because ownership doesn’t really have the power to swallow his contract. But a large part of that decision was also that Murray played relatively well upon his return over the final eight games. Not all the stats were positive (he averaged only 6.7 yards per pass attempt), but a big improvement came in the team’s average yards per play. It went from 4.74 in the first nine games to 5.16 by the end of the year. With Murray behind center, the Cardinals were at a much more workable 5.59 yards per play.
