NFL Analysis
1/3/25
7 min read
Ranking Most Likely NFL Coach Firings on Black Monday
The end of the NFL regular season is upon us, meaning the majority of the league will immediately make moves to improve for the future. Teams outside of the playoffs can't waste much time, as every franchise wants as much time as possible to find its next head coach and build a plan for free agency and the 2025 NFL Draft. That means Monday is when we see the most head coach firings.
Referred to as Black Monday because of all the jobs lost around the league, it's not just the head coaches who are affected. Assistants, coordinators, and interns can all see their lives change in the blink of an eye. Soon, players will face a similar fate before free agency begins.
After scouring sourced reporting and studying performance, we've ranked the NFL head coaches most likely to be fired this coming Black Monday in order from most likely to least likely.
Black Monday NFL Coach Firing Power Ranking
1. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars 
Doug Pederson's tenure in Jacksonville has played out eerily similar to his time in Philadelphia. Brought in to get the most out of the quarterback position, Pederson's Eagles quickly stalled and struggled after winning a Super Bowl before collapsing in his final year. He found success in 2022 with Trevor Lawrence, but issues with his coordinators and team consistency have plagued the Jacksonville Jaguars during the last two seasons.
Winning only five of his last 22 games, Pederson is sure to be fired after Week 18. His time with Lawrence has failed to bear fruit, and Pederson's inability to develop a roster has ruined what was once a promising job. His decision to blame his players and not offensive coordinator Press Taylor after their Week 4 loss to Houston should've been the last straw, but he somehow survived the year.
While ownership has been willing to spend heavily in free agency in past years, the Jaguars are in the middle of the pack with cap space available for 2025. Add in Lawrence's health concerns and unreliable play, and the Jaguars might have to take a chance on a coordinator over a more proven candidate.
Unfortunately, their Week 17 win knocked them out of landing the No. 1 pick, so the next regime won't benefit from Pederson's ineptness.
2. Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders
Despite some incredibly questionable statements to the media where Antonio Pierce downplayed the talent in his locker room and questioned their competitiveness, the Las Vegas Raiders have won two straight games. This has ended their bid to land the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, but Pierce is still coaching for his job. Could a third-straight win be enough to save Pierce?
It's hard to say, as the player's choice to earn the full-time gig last offseason has done little with a roster that looked much better in 2023. They have no straightforward path to getting a franchise quarterback, and adding Tom Brady to the ownership group could further complicate Pierce's case to stay.
This could be an attractive opening if Brady and Mark Davis are willing to spend assets and the $107 million in cap space they have this offseason to help chase someone like Sam Darnold.
My best guess is Brady recognizes the need to marry the front office with a coach and quarterback. Starting fresh with a quality class of coordinators to interview will set the tone moving forward where the rudderless path they've been on finally gets corrected.
3. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys
Mike McCarthy entered 2024 as a lame-duck coach on an expiring contract, so he can't technically be fired. However, Jerry Jones opted against extending a coach with three 12-win seasons in a row and a 42-25 record over four years before this campaign. Has he seen anything in this 7-9 season to bring the 61-year-old back?
It's hard to know, but McCarthy might be ready to move on as well. The future looks bleak with Dak Prescott failing to elevate his game when he's healthy and the roster growing stale and worse. The Dallas Cowboys have fought hard despite Prescott being out, so judging this is tough.
Comfort might be enough for both sides to run it back. The prospect of each party looking at other options is a bit unique, but anything could happen with Jerry Jones running the show.
4. Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots
If it weren't for Robert Kraft wanting to be proven correct in simply promoting Jerod Mayo as Bill Belichick's replacement, I think the chances of the former linebacker returning would be zero.
Drake Maye looks like a franchise star, but nothing in Mayo's first season indicates he's ready to handle the top position yet. His odd comments to the press, in-game management, and uninspiring game plans show he's still too green for the role.
The New England Patriots could land the top coaching candidates on the market because of Maye, the most cap space in the league, and the No. 1 overall pick in their back pocket. Allowing Mayo to influence the team's direction with that cap space and draft pick would be a mistake. Whether they make the pick at No. 1 or move back for a bounty of picks, New England can't walk out of the 2025 draft with little to show.
Kraft would be wise to move on from Mayo and revisit former Patriots Brian Flores or Mike Vrabel if he doesn't want to go too far from the Belichick tree.
5. Brian Daboll, New York Giants
The New York Giants could've drafted a potential franchise quarterback in 2024, but their decision to take Malik Nabers instead could cost everyone their job. Nabers is awesome, but the Giants banked on the wrong quarterback to bring them success. Their Week 17 win made getting a top rookie in the 2025 class a little more difficult, as they've fallen from No. 1 to No. 4.
Brian Daboll is the coach everyone should want to guide the Giants forward with a new quarterback in place, but his resume in the last two seasons has been tough to defend. The Giants' offensive roster is bad, but will Joe Schoen take the fall for that instead of Daboll? I think he should.
Winning just one of nine home games this year and producing two straight 11-loss seasons is hard to overcome. Giants co-owner John Mara surely wants stability, but a fresh start at head coach to go with a top rookie quarterback might be the safest pathway to it.
6. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals
I have a hard time seeing Kevin Stefanski, Shane Steichen, or Brian Callahan being fired, but Cincinnati's Zac Taylor is the other hot-seat candidate who makes sense to be replaced if the Cincinnati Bengals miss out on the postseason.
Things looked bleak last month before the Bengals ripped off four consecutive wins, bringing their record to 8-8. Cincinnati has a cheap and conservative ownership structure, so it's unlikely to overreact to a competitive letdown season.
However, they should consider it. Taylor's lack of creativity on offense and continued in-game coaching strategies have plagued the Bengals throughout his tenure. The hallmark of Cincinnati's best teams was on defense, but the days of this being an elite defensive unit are long gone.
Would Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins still thrive for another coach? Probably, which means Taylor needs to start producing a more effective run game in support of Burrow, and get this defense back on track.
