NFL Analysis
1/23/24
4 min read
Ranking NFL’s Best, Worst Coaching Decisions From Divisional Round
Our look at the good and the bad coaching decisions from this past week’s games is informed by metrics such as expected win probability added (xWPA).
Best, Worst Divisional Round Coaching Decisions
Second-worst: Bowles Punts Before Halftime
The situation: Buccaneers’ ball with 2:29 left in the second quarter. Buccaneers down seven, fourth-and-5 at the Lions’ 35-yard line
The decision: Field goal
The result: Kick is no good
On the road as nearly a touchdown underdog, Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles decided to play it safe before halftime by kicking a field goal that would’ve cut the Buccaneers' deficit from seven to four.
Well into opponent territory, Bowles should have gone for it to extend the drive and try to go into halftime tied. Instead, Chase McLaughlin missed the kick, and the Buccaneers’ expected win probability dropped below 20 percent.
The Lions’ subsequent drive ended with a punt, and the Buccaneers tied the game right before the half. Had converted on fourth-and-5 and extended the drive for a touchdown or easier kick, they would have gone into halftime with a lead.
Bills convert a crucial 4th down with 4:43 to go.
— NFL (@NFL) January 22, 2024
📺: #KCvsBUF on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/FR6a2VkD33 pic.twitter.com/qZQIYPL2ab
Second-best: McDermott Does All He Can
The situation: Bills’ ball with 4:53 left in the fourth quarter. Bills down by three, fourth-and-3 from the 50
The decision: Go for it
The result: Josh Allen pass to Khalil Shakir for a first down
In what has become a classic rivalry between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, Bills coach Sean McDermott stayed aggressive throughout the game.
Late in the fourth quarter, while down by less than a touchdown, McDermott decided to go for it from midfield. After forcing the Chiefs to punt for the first time during the previous possession, McDermott put the ball in his star player’s hands.
He asked Josh Allen to make the throw to Khalil Shakir to keep the drive alive. Although the stalled and ended in a missed game-tying field goal, the decision to go for it added 6.8 percentage points of xWPA. For a brief moment, it kept their dreams of a Super Bowl run alive.
Should pass interference have been called on the Lions on this two-point attempt for the Buccaneers?
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulli) January 21, 2024
Mike Evans wanted it called. pic.twitter.com/b6pqhf3AdK
Worst: Right Idea, Wrong Execution
The situation: Buccaneers score with 4:37 left in the game, Buccaneers cut the lead from 14 to eight.
The decision: Go for two
The result: Goal line fade to Mike Evans incomplete, Buccaneers lose by 8
Bowles had the right idea going for two in this spot. However, a poor play call negates the logic of doing so. With 2-point conversions having a success rate of more than 50 percent, the analytics say go for two while down 14 to try and end the game in regulation.
If they convert, an extra point would take the lead. If they fail the conversion, another score would give them the opportunity to go for two again and tie it.
However, by calling a play with a low positive play percentage, Bowles practically gives up the two-point try. Bowles put his team in the best possible position to win and then quickly put them behind again with the play call.
4th and Goal? Lions are going for it.
— NFL (@NFL) January 21, 2024
📺: #TBvsDET on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/frRD38ClOq pic.twitter.com/x9nVpCrGhP
Best: Campbell Feasting on Kneecaps
The situation: Lions’ ball with 3:51 left in the third quarter, tie game, 4th-and-goal at the Buccaneers’ 1-yard line
The decision: Go for it
The result: Craig Reynolds runs in the touchdown, taking the lead
Unsurprisingly, Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell decided to be aggressive, and his decision paid off big time.
With a trip to the conference championship on the line, Campbell went for it, knowing if he failed, the Buccaneers’ offense would need to sustain a long drive to get into scoring territory.
He didn’t have to worry about that, though, as Craig Reynolds took the handoff and scored a touchdown, giving Detroit the lead. Campbell’s decision added 7.2 percentage points of xWPA, and kickstarted the Lions’ second-half offense. It scored two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter after scoring only 10 points in the first half.
— By Ryan Rubenstein
