NFL Analysis
9/23/24
4 min read
Rashee Rice Is More Valuable to Chiefs Than Tyreek Hill Ever Was
The Kansas City Chiefs have a true No. 1 wide receiver in Rashee Rice, who they're hoping they can continue to lean on like they did with Tyreek Hill.
Rice saw a career-high 14 targets in Sunday's 22-17 win against the Atlanta Falcons. He caught 12 of those targets for 110 yards and a touchdown, his best game so far in 2024. He led all players, including the two quarterbacks, with an impressive 10.7 expected points added, according to RBSDM.
It's clear that the Chiefs plan to give Rice the ball as much as possible this season. Is that target share sustainable, and how does it compare to Hill's usage during his time in Kansas City?
Can Rashee Rice Sustain This Workload?
In a historical context, Rice is off to an All-Pro-caliber season.
The second-year receiver has 24 catches (the most in the NFL) on 29 targets for 288 yards and two touchdowns through three games. His 17-game pace would have him finishing the year with 136 catches, 164 targets, 1,632 yards, and 11 touchdowns.
Compared to last season, that 17-game pace would have had Rice lead the NFL in catches, third in receiving yards, and tied for fifth in targets.
It's not just Rice's heavy target share but also his efficiency that has him establishing himself as a true No. 1 receiver in the Chiefs' offense. According to TruMedia, Rice leads the NFL with 3.39 yards per route run among players with at least 10 targets this season.
Once the ball is in Rice's hands, he can make all kinds of plays. According to Next Gen Stats, Rice leads the NFL with 200 yards after the catch and leads all wide receivers with nine forced missed tackles.
That was an impressive drive by #Chiefs
— Hoody (@theshanehood27) September 23, 2024
Rashee rice is that dude.#ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/OiLf2aqAIn
Rice is developing into the best possible version of the prospect we saw at SMU. However, the question about whether this workload is sustainable isn't about his ability to stay productive but rather whether other weapons on the Chiefs' offense will step up.
No one else on the Chiefs offense has more than eight receptions this season, and Travis Kelce has the next-highest target share with 12 passes thrown his way. The future Hall of Fame tight end has had a much quieter start to this season with eight catches for 69 yards and zero touchdowns.
Part of that is probably because he's 34 years old, but Kelce might also need a few weeks to get back into NFL shape before becoming a focal point in the offense again.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have another emerging weapon: rookie Xavier Worthy. The 165-pound speedster had a breakout NFL debut against the Baltimore Ravens but has been relatively quiet since then. It will take him some time to acclimate to playing against NFL defenses and getting comfortable with what the Chiefs want from him, but he should find his footing in the near future.
Kelce and Worthy settling in should drop Rice's target share some. However, based on the first three weeks, it's obvious that the Chiefs see him as one of the NFL's next stars at the position.
How Does Rashee Rice Stack Up to Tyreek Hill?
While they may win in totally different ways, Rice is holding up as Kansas City's No. 1 receiver when comparing him to Hill.
Based on his current pace, Rice could end up surpassing Hill's career-high marks in Kansas City in receptions (111 in 2021), targets (159 in 2021), and yards (1,479 in 2018). While Hill has always been a big play waiting to happen with his breakaway speed, Rice is winning more by creating separation with his routes and generating yards after the catch.
Rice is also beating out Hill's best seasons with the Chiefs in some key advanced metrics. His 7.8 YAC per reception dwarfs Hill's 6.1 mark in 2018. The 3.39 yards per route run also dominates any Hill season that hasn't been with the Miami Dolphins, with his best Chiefs season coming in 2018 with 2.55 yards per route run.
The numbers for Patrick Mahomes are just as eye-opening. During their time together, Mahomes posted a 112.9 passer rating when targeting Hill, completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 9.2 yards per attempt, 41 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.
During the last two seasons, when targeting Rice, Mahomes has posted a 123.8 passer rating, completing 78.7 percent of his passes with 9.5 YPA, eight touchdowns, and just one interception.
The highlights between Mahomes and Hill were impressive during their time together, but the numbers show that Rice is a more consistent weapon who doesn't have to rely on explosive deep shots to keep the offense moving.
It's obviously a small sample size, but Rice's pace has him looking like a bona fide No. 1 receiver and a more valuable weapon in the Chiefs offense than Hill ever was.
