NFL Analysis
10/21/24
6 min read
Should Browns Start Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Jameis Winston in Place of Watson?
The Cleveland Browns face another quarterback dilemma, but this time, it doesn't involve Deshaun Watson.
Watson suffered a non-contact injury during Sunday's loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. The injury was quickly diagnosed as a torn Achilles, and shortly after the game, it was confirmed that Watson would miss the remainder of the 2024 season.
After trading Amari Cooper to the Buffalo Bills, the Browns find themselves in an impossible situation on offense. Still, they need to figure out which of their other two quarterbacks they can lean on going forward because the two provide very different skill sets at this point in their respective careers.
DTR's Second Chance
A fifth-round pick in 2023, Dorian Thompson-Robinson was given some starting opportunities before Joe Flacco's emergence last season. Now, he could be getting his second chance to show the rest of the league that he can develop into a starting-caliber quarterback.
Unfortunately, that second chance didn't get off to an ideal start in Sunday's loss. DTR came in after Watson's injury but completed just 11-of-24 passes for 82 yards, two interceptions, and a passer rating of just 19.8.
According to RBSDM, he was far and away the worst quarterback of the game, averaging -0.45 EPA per play.
The turnovers brought DTR's total EPA way down, but he struggled to push the ball downfield. His average depth of target of just 5.2 yards was the lowest of any quarterback for either team. According to Next Gen Stats, Thompson-Robinson went just 1-of-3 with an interception on pass attempts 10-plus yards downfield.
As bad as DTR's game was, there's a reason why he was a fifth-round pick and earned some starting opportunities last season. He's an athletic quarterback capable of extending plays with his legs, and he carried the ball three times for 44 yards in Sunday's loss.
Thompson-Robinson was an even more dangerous runner in college. In his final two college seasons, he racked up more than 1,250 rushing yards with 21 touchdowns, including this highlight hurdle against the USC Trojans.
Can't stop watching this unreal hurdle from @DoriansTweets 🔥😳@UCLAFootball pic.twitter.com/YP7QyYuW17
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 21, 2021
Part of DTR's struggles against the Bengals likely were due to the fact that the Browns hadn't built a game plan around him. He wasn't expecting to go in, and the offensive coaching staff had planned to lean into Watson's strengths as a quarterback, which are quite different from Thompson-Robinson's.
Despite his athletic ability and off-script playmaking, Thompson-Robinson isn't guaranteed to beat out Jameis Winston for the starting job. In fact, there's a chance that DTR won't practice at all this week after leaving Sunday's game due to a finger injury.
While the injury isn't considered major, it's unclear how it will impact DTR's availability in practice going into Week 8, when the team faces a tough matchup against the Baltimore Ravens.
Jameis "flacco" Winston
Joe Flacco revived his NFL career and won Comeback Player of the Year after taking over as the Browns' starter last season. Winston hopes to have a similar impact if he becomes Cleveland's starting quarterback.
Despite limited action on Sunday, Winston was the game's most efficient quarterback for either side, generating 0.54 EPA per play. No other quarterback, including Joe Burrow, had a positive EPA in the game.
Winston only completed 5-of-11 passes but threw for 67 yards, and this impressive touchdown went into the back of the end zone to make it a one-score game.
Chief elevates for 6!#CINvsCLE on CBS and NFL+ pic.twitter.com/jz29Gk3eAO
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) October 20, 2024
Winston wasn't afraid of throwing down the field, either. His throws had an average depth of target of 10.5 yards, more than double Thompson-Robinson's aDOT.
A former No. 1 overall pick, Heisman Trophy winner, and national champion, Winston has never been afraid to throw downfield. His career aDOT in the NFL is 10.8 yards, leading to 134 big-time throws in the last nine seasons, according to Pro Football Focus.
However, for as exciting as Winston's play style is, it also comes with a ton of risk. According to TruMedia, his career interception rate of 3.4 percent is the third-highest among qualified NFL quarterbacks since 2015.
There's a chance that time as a backup has helped Winston scale back on his turnover-worthy decision-making, but that remains to be seen. The former Florida State superstar hasn't been a full-time starter since 2019 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he started seven games during the 2021 season for the New Orleans Saints before suffering a torn ACL.
Winston went 5-2 as a starter in that 2021 season but hasn't been given another opportunity to be the guy since. This opportunity in Cleveland might be the last chance he gets at being a starter because the 30-year-old is already starting to embrace life as a backup quarterback.
Who Should Start?
Regardless of DTR's health status ahead of Week 8, the Browns should roll with Winston as their starting quarterback for the rest of the season if they want to field a competitive team.
The return of RB Nick Chubb could give the Browns some much-needed balance on offense. He only carried the ball 11 times for 22 yards this week but scored his first touchdown in more than a year.
NICHOLAS JAMAAL CHUBB#CINvsCLE on CBS and NFL+ pic.twitter.com/VB0posVj2H
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) October 20, 2024
It will take some time for Chubb to get back to his old self, but his return could help improve Cleveland's run game, and help open up play-action passing concepts.
According to TruMedia, Winston has been an effective passer on play action. On passes charted since 2020, he's posted a 108.2 passer rating with 9.0 yards per attempt, four touchdowns, and one interception on play-action passes.
Winston might be the more turnover-prone quarterback between him and DTR, but what do the Browns have to lose at this point? They're 1-6 and are having one of the worst seasons in the league. To make matters worse, they also have the second-hardest remaining schedule in the NFL behind only the Chicago Bears.
If the Browns want to be competitive and put some teams on upset alert with some explosive shots in the passing game, then Winston should be their starter going forward.
