Analysis
10/13/22
4 min read
Sports Info Solutions: Explaining Pressures Above Expectation
Last year, SIS unveiled a new pressure metric, Pressures Above Expectation (PAE). It measures a player’s pressures against the likelihood they were to record one, considering factors like their alignment and down and distance.
This metric allows us to compare players’ relative talent across position groups, and we also found it could be used to predict sacks better than pressures alone. With four players tied for first in sacks just past the quarter-pole, it might be time to examine the leaders in this metric to give us some insight into who we might expect the most productive players to be moving forward.
Top 10 in PAE (min. 100 snaps)
| Player | Team | PAE | Sacks |
| Micah Parsons | Cowboys | 9.0 | 6 |
| Nick Bosa | 49ers | 8.0 | 6 |
| Dexter Lawrence | Giants | 5.8 | 3 |
| Aaron Donald | Rams | 4.6 | 4 |
| Kenny Clark | Packers | 4.5 | 2 |
| Josh Allen | Jaguars | 4.5 | 3 |
| Justin Madubuike | Ravens | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| Matt Judon | Patriots | 3.2 | 6 |
| Matt Ioannidis | Panthers | 2.4 | 1 |
| Brian Burns | Panthers | 2.3 | 4 |
Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, Matthew Judon and Maxx Crosby – who falls just outside the Top-10 leaderboard above – are all tied for the league lead in sacks at six. However, in terms of PAE and pressure rate, Parsons (9, 18%) and Bosa (8, 20%) outclass the latter two and should be considered the frontrunners in this year’s sack race.
Bosa is a pure edge and, therefore, should have more opportunities than Parsons to rush the passer, but he’s also dealing with a groin injury that could cause him to miss some snaps or otherwise limit him. If I were a betting man, I’d take Bosa (+500 on DraftKings) over Parsons (+450), but this race should be close either way.
Outside of those two, we find some of the usual suspects alongside a few unexpected names. Aaron Donald is an institution at this point, having recorded 20+ PAE in two of the last three seasons, so it’s no surprise to find him listed here.
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Surprising Names on the PAE List
What is surprising is Giants DT Dexter Lawrence, who’s enjoying something of a breakout season, is outpacing him so far. Lawrence is currently leading defensive tackles in pressure rate at 12%, and he recently drew praise from Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, who called him a ‘premier player.’ Rodgers’ teammate, Kenny Clark, is just behind Lawrence and Donald at fifth in PAE. A bit further down is another 3-tech, Justin Madubuike. The Ravens’ third-round pick in 2020 has long been praised by John Harbaugh and his staff for his upside and athleticism, and he appears to be rounding into form this year.
Shifting back to edge, much ado has rightfully been made about Bosa, but two of his 2019 draftmates, Josh Allen (Jaguars) and Brian Burns (Panthers), have also cracked this list. Burns has a higher pressure rate than Allen (19% vs. 13%), but Allen has a higher PAE because he’s been in situations less conducive to generating pressure. Clelin Ferrell (Raiders) was not listed on the leaderboard but was drafted ahead of both Allen and Burns and is currently a net negative at -2.4 PAE.
Disappointing PAE Rookies
On the other hand, this year’s first-round edge class isn’t faring too well. Travon Walker (-3.7), Aidan Hutchinson (-3.1), Kayvon Thibodeaux (-1.9), Jermaine Johnson II (-0.8) and George Karlaftis (-3.0) have all been relatively ineffective, so far.
Some growing pains are to be expected with first-year players, but the aforementioned Bosa (20), Allen (9), and Burns (3) all finished their rookie seasons with positive PAE. Players can and do improve as they get older, but this should be something we keep in our periphery as we watch the 2022 sack race unfold.
Prepared by Bryce Rossler of Sports Info Solutions
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