NFL Analysis
1/31/25
9 min read
Super Bowl 59 Preview: 6 Keys For Chiefs, Eagles To Win Matchup
Super Bowl 59 will be a rematch of a terrific Super Bowl 57, when the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35. While some of the same faces remain, the coaching staffs and rosters have changed. Vegas sees this game as close to a toss-up, just like the last time they played.
With stars like Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Travis Kelce, and A.J. Brown headlining these teams, we're going to see explosive plays and legacy-defining performances. But the keys to the game are complex at the season's most critical stage. The games within the game matter the most.
We have six keys to win Super Bowl 59, with three each for the Chiefs and Eagles needing to focus on. The team that best addresses these keys will likely win the Super Bowl. The star power on each side makes this a heavyweight battle, and we can't wait.
Which team will bring home the Lombardi?
6 Keys to Winning Super Bowl 59
Chiefs: Somewhat Stop Saquon Barkley
The most concerning part of Kansas City's narrow win at home against Buffalo was its inability to slow James Cook for portions of the game. Cook had only 13 carries but quickly totaled 85 yards and two touchdowns. He reached at least five yards on nine of those touches, and Buffalo would've likely won the game if it simply fed Cook more.
Buffalo had an effective rushing attack this season but was still too reliant on Josh Allen as a unit to be well-rounded. It ranked ninth in the league in rushing attempts and yards. Kansas City's run defense was pulverized when Cook was the ball carrier, and that was a red flag since the Chiefs were a top-10 run defense all season.
The Bills' run-game resume was respectable, but Philadelphia brings a new level of efficiency. Barkley and Hurts led the NFL's second-best ground game, leading the league in carries and ranking second in yards and touchdowns. They averaged just under five yards a carry.
Philadelphia's offensive attack and personnel look similar to the scheme they ran in Super Bowl 57, but it's now more experienced and have Barkley instead of Miles Sanders. This is a terrifying unit that won't forget to utilize its best player and has the trench advantage against every team in the league.
Every 40+ yard rush from Saquon Barkley this year 📽️
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) January 30, 2025
I can't help it. I'm smiling the whole time. pic.twitter.com/86IOHorU7s
Kansas City heard a lot of the same noise last time it played the Eagles in the Super Bowl, and it stuffed Philadelphia's running backs for 17 carries and 45 yards. Hurts carried the load, totaling 15 carries for 70 yards and three scores.
Slowing down Barkley is a must for the Chiefs to get enough possessions to get 30 points again. The AFC Conference Championship was only the third time they scored at least 29 points, so Philadelphia's goal should be to eat time with long drives and force the Chiefs to have perfect offensive efficiency.
Eagles: Beat the Blitz
All quarterbacks are worse when pressured than when clean, and Hurts is no exception. However, the split between a clean pocket for Hurts and a pressured play is as large of a gap as it is for any quarterback in the NFL. The Chiefs rank 13th in blitz rate, but defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's ability to scheme unblocked blitzers has been the best in the NFL by far since he was hired in 2019.
Hurts' mobility allows him to buy some time and break a tackle occasionally, but he's more of a power runner than an elusive type who avoids sacks. His time to throw when pressured was the third-highest despite his yards per attempt dropping from 9.3 to 4.9 and his turnover-worthy-throw rate plummeting from 1.8 percent to 5.3 percent. Hurts is just a bad quarterback under pressure.
Jalen Hurts when pressured this yr:
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) January 26, 2025
#37 of 37 QBs in EPA/att
#37 of 37 QBs in success rate
#33 of 37 QBs in sack rate
#32 of 37 QBs in YPA
last year he ranked top-10 in virtually all of those stats
massive regression when pressured this year
While the Eagles have the best offensive line in football, his 12 percent sack rate against the blitz and diminished effectiveness overall give them a clear edict to build in quick throws with hot reads that can flip the script to avoid negative plays.
Chiefs: Get Rid of the Ball
It's no secret the Chiefs have seen a dip in play across their offensive line this season compared to years past. Joe Thuney has filled in at left tackle admirably, but guards Mike Caliendo and Trey Smith have struggled in the postseason. PFF has credited the guard duo with 11 pressures allowed in 58 combined pass plays.
Philadelphia is the worst matchup possible when blockers aren't acing their assignments. Jalen Carter and Milton Williams are an elite penetrating duo, and Nolan Smith has ascended into one of the most disruptive edge rushers in the NFL. No team can match Philadelphia's depth along the line either, as Jordan Davis, Jalyx Hunt, Moro Ojomo, and Josh Sweat round out the rotation.
The key to Xavier Worthy winning vs press? Don't get touched
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) January 28, 2025
⚡️⚡️Lightning Slinky on 3rd & 4 https://t.co/KjFq6MH5d8 pic.twitter.com/P05qWt1qWS
Mahomes is a bit of a cheat code against the blitz, as he routinely gets rid of the ball quickly and mitigates pressure with his pocket movement. His time to throw during the last month of action has rapidly improved, and Kansas City is prioritizing routes that allow for yards after the catch over long-developing chunk plays.
If the Eagles can't get to Mahomes and register hits, it'll be a long game, and their chances of winning will dip.
Eagles: Feed A.J. Brown
There aren't many receivers better against man coverage than Brown. The powerful target will surely see a ton of Trent McDuffie throughout the Super Bowl, and this might be the single most defining matchup of the game. McDuffie played a huge part in how Super Bowl 58 ended, and now, the sticky man corner may follow Brown around the field.
The Chiefs are primarily man-defense with Cover 1 alignments and occasionally mix in double coverage brackets. They may opt for more zone looks against Hurts to muddy the field with defenders who can take away run lanes and prevent big plays over the top. However, there will be times when either McDuffie or Jaylen Watson are tasked with managing Brown's physical game as best they can.
AJ Brown lol pic.twitter.com/KLLDqj8h1w
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 29, 2024
The Eagles have to call the Chiefs' gambles whenever that happens. McDuffie is as effective as any corner in the NFL, but he doesn't have the length or strength to completely erase Brown. Putting Brown in the slot more could be an option to throw a curveball at Kansas City, as he's played out wide on 82 percent of snaps for the first time since 2020.
Chiefs: Win the Margins Again
Some people attribute the Chiefs' wins to referees' discretion, but that's far from the reality of why Kansas City is so good in key moments. The Chiefs are the best-coached team with a top-four roster and the best quarterback in the NFL's history. The cascading effect of these strengths is they play disciplined and put immense pressure on foes to be perfect.
Beating Kansas City is nearly impossible if they win both the turnover margin and penalty battle. The Bills nearly won when they forced a fumble that temporarily flipped the momentum in the first half, but they succumbed to some bad situational play calls and then had 27 more penalty yards than the Chiefs. The Eagles can't replicate that outcome.
The Chiefs led the league with the fewest penalties per game with 5.4, and the Eagles were right behind them with 5.9. A clean game is imperative for the Eagles' plan of dominating the time of possession and pinning their ears back on Mahomes on the few drives they'll have. Handing Mahomes free yards is a death knell, and getting behind on their own offensive snaps will put the ball in Hurts' hands more than what Philadelphia wants.
Eagles: Stuff the Run
The Chiefs are unlikely to be overly effective rushing the ball in this matchup, but the timeliness of their runs is the bigger deal for Philadelphia to focus on. The Eagles have an elite run defense that must be softened by throwing the ball to open the run game. Andy Reid is fine playing that way, and Mahomes, along with Tom Brady, is the best player ever to execute that plan.
However, there will be key moments where Kareem Hunt or Mahomes will have the opportunity to convert a first down or take off in the red zone. Every first down or score Kansas City gets on the ground is a blow to the chokehold Philadelphia should have with its trench advantage.
