NFL Analysis
2/24/24
12 min read
The Biggest NFL Combine Risers Of Past Decade
The NFL Combine wipes the slate clean for NFL prospects.
It's a place where film and production and level of competition don't matter. Every player shows up to wear the same spandex uniforms and run all the same drills — a completely even playing field amid a draft process littered with discrepancies elsewhere. It's the perfect opportunity for unproven players to show their potential or for fringe top prospects to lock themselves into the first round.
At least a few prospects fly up the board every year purely based on what they did at the combine. Sometimes, it's one drill that makes you question what you saw on tape. Other times, a player completely knocks it out of the park with every drill. to propel their draft status.
With that in mind, we're going to look back at some of the biggest combine risers of the past decade, hitting on secret stars, big-time busts — and everything in between.
Biggest Recent Combine Risers
Byron Jones hit 12'3" on the broad jump back in 2015 😳 pic.twitter.com/QdeOb921bw
— PFF (@PFF) February 25, 2020
Byron Jones, CB (2015)
Bryon Jones is the poster child for the post-combine bump.
A lean, unproven cornerback out of UConn, Jones wasn't expected to be a top pick heading into the combine. The NFL's obsession with replicating the Legion of Boom made Jones' frame and generally impressive movement skills on tape an appealing blend of skills, but he was more of a Day 2 dice roll.
Then, Jones went to Indianapolis and jumped out of the gym.
Jones' 147-inch broad jump shattered the record. The next-closest mark to Jones? A three-way tie at 141 inches, a half-foot short of Jones. There are more than a dozen players between those three prospects and the next six-inch drop-off. Jones set a standard that may never be sniffed again.
The rest of Jones' testing profile was exceptional, too. He registered the eighth-best vertical jump since 1999. He also cleared the 90th percentile in the short-shuttle and three-cone drill. Jones didn't run a 40-yard dash, but with the rest of his profile, there was no need for it.
By the time draft day came around, Jones found himself in the late first round, a far cry from his pre-combine stock.
The combine bump was largely warranted, too. Jones played well for the team that drafted him, the Dallas Cowboys, and was a force with the Miami Dolphins for a few seasons.
The Anthony Richardson hype is very, very real.
— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) March 4, 2023
6’4”
244 pounds
10 RAS
4.44u 40-yard dash (1.6 10-yard split)
40.5” vertical (QB Combine record)
10’9” broad (QB Combine record)
Hand size 10 1/2” pic.twitter.com/qEcyAo362n
Anthony Richardson, QB (2023)
It's pretty rare for the combine to do anything for a quarterback. It's an athletic competition, but quarterback play is much more about decision-making, arm talent and accuracy. That's just not really what the combine is about.
Anthony Richardson's 2023 combine performance was so special that he found a way to move the needle as a quarterback.
Richardson simply showing up to the combine was helpful enough. He measured in at 6-foot-4 and a clean 244 pounds. Quarterbacks just don't come in that size often.
Richardson proceeded to blow up every drill he participated in. In the 40-yard dash, he clocked in at 4.43 seconds, the third-fast time for a quarterback in combine history. Richardson's 40 1/2-inch vertical jump and 129-inch broad jump set combine records among quarterbacks.
Richardson was a unique athlete if it wasn't clear from watching him play. The top four athletic comparisons for Richardson on Mockdraftable were Dante Culpepper, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Justin Herbert. That's quite the quartet of athletic phenoms.
Richardson was going to be a first-round pick regardless of whether he tested or not, but his special performance in Indy firmly solidified his top-five pick status.
Aaron Donald, DL (2014)
Aaron Donald is sort of a cheat answer. His rise up the draft boards started a month before the combine at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama. Donald's performance day after day in practices is the type of thing scouts and NFL media lifers will talk about forever.
Donald definitely crystallised his top-20 status in Indianapolis, though.
Though well undersized at 6-foot-1 and 285 pounds, Donald tested out of his mind. He raced to a 4.68-second 40-yard dash, which included a bonkers 1.59-second 10-yard split. Donald also ran a 7.11-second three-cone drill, 97th percentile among defensive tackles. All of Donald's drills rank at least in the 80th percentile among defensive linemen at the combine since 1999.
Donald was always going to be a first-round pick after the Senior Bowl, but his outrageous combine performance locked him into the top half of the first round.
Bud Dupree, EDGE (2015)
Bud Dupree is one of the funniest combine risers of all time.
More often than not, combine risers excel across the board — they blow up every drill they participate in. Most of the time, they also carry a prototypical build, which only heightens every general manager's fantasy of finding the perfect athlete.
That wasn't Dupree. Back in 2015, Dupree blew up the combine in a very specific way.
Dupree, at 6-foot-4 and 269 pounds, was explosive as hell and could run fast in a straight line. Both of Dupree's jumps placed in the 99th percentile among edge defenders. His 4.56-second 40-yard dash also landed in the 95th percentile.
By contrast, Dupree skipped the agility drills altogether at the combine. He didn't run them until his Pro Day, where he posted below-average results. He just wasn't a bendy, smooth athlete.
Teams saw the forward explosion and bought in any way. The idea was Dupree was so explosive and fast that he would get to the quarterback without needing to be nimble.
Ultimately, the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Dupree in the middle of the first round. The fruits of that selection are inconclusive. While with the Steelers, Dupree was never as good as his first-round status suggested, but he was a useful pocket pusher as a No. 2 rusher and was a stout run defender. That's not what the Steelers bargained for, but at least he was useful.
WR John Ross breaks 40-yard dash record with unofficial time of 4.22 pic.twitter.com/Lq7u9QpeTS
— NFL News (@New_NFL_News) March 4, 2017
John Ross, WR (2017)
John Ross ran extremely fast at the 2017 combine. That's it.
Ross' 4.22-second 40-yard dash broke the combine record previously held by Chris Johnson (4.24 seconds). Everyone expected Ross to run fast, so it's not like his performance came out of nowhere, but making history will always give a prospect a bump.
That post-combine bump took Ross from mid- to late-first-round status and catapulted him into the top 10. The Cincinnati Bengals landed on Ross with the ninth overall pick, a selection that came right before a three-pick run of Patrick Mahomes, Marshon Lattimore and Deshaun Watson. Haason Reddick, Marlon Humphrey and Jonathan Allen all followed shortly after that.
Unlike all those stars, Ross never worked out in the league. Despite his record-setting speed, he struggled to hold up on the outside against physical NFL cornerbacks and couldn't develop the route-running ability to make up for it.
Kolton Miller, OT (2018)
Kolton Miller is another prospect who locked in his first-round status at the combine.
Leading into draft season, he was largely expected to be a top-50 pick. Miller then made a late push up boards as the draft got closer, thanks, in part, to his outrageous showing at the combine.
A lean 6-foot-8 and 309 pounds, Miller passed every test with flying colors. Miller's 7.34-second three-cone drill and 4.49-second short-shuttle time put him over the top. Both marks landed in the 91st percentile or better among offensive tackle prospects since 1999.
Agility drills are especially important for offensive linemen because of how much the position revolves around short-area recovery skills, so Miller made himself a lot of money with those two tests.
His combine boost got the Las Vegas Raiders to select him 15th overall. A risky move at the time, Miller has made good on the Raiders' faith in his athletic profile. Miller isn't an All-Pro left tackle or anything, but he's an above-average to good starter, firmly in the tier of left tackle a team is willing to pay long-term.
Iowa TE Noah Fant ran a faster 40-yard dash than most RBs 👀
— ESPN (@espn) March 2, 2019
📺: NFL Network pic.twitter.com/PYfqC5GZXY
Noah Fant, TE (2019)
Tight end is a difficult position to scout and project. They are two positions in one, and modern college offenses don't use them like NFL teams do. Sometimes, just drafting the biggest, baddest athlete and hoping for the best is what all NFL teams can do.
Enter Noah Fant.
To his credit, Fant was an appealing prospect before the combine. He played alongside T.J. Hockenson at Iowa. While Hockenson was seen as the more polished and versatile player, Fant was the athlete with yards-after-catch skills and unlimited potential. He just needed to work on the finer parts of route-running and clean up his catching technique.
Well, teams looked past the latter once Fant showed up at the combine.
Fant, all 6-foot-4 and 249 pounds of him, shredded every drill. Aside from the bench press, all his drills finished in at least the 81st percentile. Fant's 4.50-second 40-yard dash and 6.81-second three-cone drill were especially impressive, showcasing his blazing speed and smooth movement skills.
The combine did enough for Fant's stock to get him drafted 20th overall by the Denver Broncos.
Whether or not that's been a success is hard to say. Fant hasn't been as productive or dynamic as his athletic profile or draft status would lead you to believe, which is part of why Denver traded him to the Seattle Seahawks in the Russell Wilson deal.
At the same time, Fant has developed into a solid starter with flashes of dangerous YAC ability. He's far from a bust — he's just not the needle mover he was expected to be.
Jamin Davis, LB (2021)
As with tight ends, linebackers are tough to scout in the modern era. Offenses in college football have spread the field in a way that isn't possible in the NFL because of where the hashes are. In turn, college defenses got lighter and built their defenses to combat what college offenses were doing. All of that has contributed to a world where NFL linebackers are difficult to spot and project from the college game.
Sometimes the best course of action is taking a super athlete and praying they figure it out. That was Jamin Davis' ticket into the first round.
Technically, Davis didn't do his testing at the combine. COVID-19 forced the NFL to cancel the combine that year, so everyone tested at their pro days instead.
Davis' testing was exceptional, nonetheless. A 6-foot-3, 239-pounder with an overwhelming wingspan, he crushed all the drills he ran. Davis clocked a 4.48-second 40-yard dash and leaped into the 99th percentile among linebackers in the broad and vertical jumps.
Davis opted to skip the agility drills, which probably should have been a red alert, but there was no denying he was as explosive as linebackers get.
The Washington Commanders took the swing on Davis with the 20th overall pick. Unfortunately, Davis hasn't come into his own. You see moments of incredible speed and explosiveness, but he's still a tick slow in how he sees the game and doesn't always have the fluidity of movement most high-quality linebackers possess.
Betting on Davis' tools made sense, but it hasn't worked out yet.
Odafe Oweh, EDGE (2021)
Odafe Oweh was also in the 2021 draft class and didn't get to participate in the combine. Oweh's pro day results were legendary, though.
At 6-foot-5 and 257 pounds, Oweh cleared the 90th percentile in every drill besides bench press. His 4.37-second 40-yard dash was mind-blowing, as was his 39 1/2-inch vertical jump. It's not like he was just a straight-line explosion guy, either. Oweh notched a 6.9-second three-cone drill and a blazing 4.2-second short-shuttle. He checked every box athletically.
That was necessary for Oweh's stock as a prospect. Coming out of Penn State, he was an exceptionally raw player. He didn't have a big repertoire of pass-rush moves and didn't record a single sack in his final season. Everything about Oweh's profile was a bet on traits.
The Baltimore Ravens took the swing on Oweh at 31st overall that year.
Three years in, it's hard to say Oweh has lived up to his otherworldly testing. He has 13 career sacks. His career-best in a season is five sacks, which he secured in his second season.
That 2022 season seemed like a turning point, but he couldn't take another step in 2023, leaving him to be more of a quasi-starter than a serious every-down threat.
