Analysis
11/9/22
6 min read
The Wednesday Watchman: NFL Week 10 Betting, DFS and Fantasy Information to Know
What happens when the horribly inefficient running back averaging 3.35 yards per carry on a pass-happy offense plays the defense ranked second against the position in EPA? Bengals RB Joe Mixon scores five touchdowns, of course!
This was not the outcome the statistics predicted. Coming into the game Mixon ranked 75th in yards per carry, 68th in rushes per touchdown, 76th in first downs per rush and 77th in yards after contact per rush among players with at least 20 rush attempts.
Congratulations to the contrarian DFS players who correctly thought Mixon was “due.”
The Buffalo Bills lost to the New York Jets, but that is the least of Buffalo's problems. All-world QB Josh Allen has an elbow injury that could cost the Bills some wins and him the MVP award, if not handled properly. His team is 6-2 and sits atop the AFC, but the Chiefs keep finding wins and will make it a contest. At least the Bills own the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Chiefs.
The Eastern divisions are rolling, with seven of eight teams above .500 and the two best-combined records: 24-9 for the NFC East and 23-12 for the AFC East. Impressive. The Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins are the only teams here with a negative scoring differential, but each seem to be improving.
How about the Seattle Seahawks? Addition by subtraction at its finest! They were left for dead after the Russell Wilson trade, only to find that incantations of “let’s ride” were some form of curse they vanquished with his departure. Geno Smith and the Seahawks have double the number of wins as Wilson’s Denver Broncos.
Speaking of winning trades, the Philadelphia Eagles will add insult to injury for the New Orleans Saints, as Philadelphia owns New Orleans’ 2023 first-round pick (projected sixth overall). To be undefeated through nine weeks and have a shot at a top-five draft pick is genius-level GM work from Howie Roseman. Bravo!
I’d sure like to see some passing explosions this week.
Here are all of the matchups where both offenses average over 225 passing yards per game:
Bills - Vikings
Chargers - 49ers
Buccaneers - Seahawks
Colts - Raiders
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Betting Stats to Know
The Bills (-6) take on the Vikings at home in the first real test of Allen's injured elbow. If he is cleared, then it’s “all systems go” for a shootout. Buffalo’s secondary is reeling from injury, and the Bills will be angry to show the NFL the Jets' win was an aberration. The total is currently 45. Time to buy uncertainty and take the over.
The Chargers (+7) travel up the California coast to meet the 49ers in a West Coast battle to stay in second place in their respective divisions. This is also a battle of the elite pass-catching RBs. The total is 46.5, and with defensive injuries for both teams, this could get fun. I'm leaning toward the over.
The Seahawks (+2.5) traverse nine time zones and 5200 miles to take on the Buccaneers in Munich, Germany. Foreign games are always tricky to figure out. Will Buccaneers QB Tom Brady be less distracted by personal issues out of the country? Will Smith’s hot streak carry over to central Europe? The total is 44.5. The Seahawks have been covering (66.67%) while the Bucs have not (25%), so I will take Geno and the points.
How are the Colts (+6.5) on this list? Was this a mistake? The ghost of Matt Ryan is haunting the averages. Either way, I expect the meeting of the team that made Mac Jones look like a first-round draft pick and the team that allowed the Jaguars to come back from a 17-point deficit, to be high scoring. I will be on the over 42.5, a very low bar.
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DFS Stats to Know
The Germany game is not on the main slate, but in a showdown, there are some decent targets. Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett should do well against a middling slot WR defense (17th), and TE Will Dissly will face the 24th-ranked TE defense. Similarly, Seattle’s defense is 31st in TE defense, so Buccaneers TE Cade Otton is in play, as well as WR Chris Godwin against the 18th-ranked slot WR defense.
The Chargers snuck a win out against the Falcons last week, and they are terrible against RBs (29th). So, 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey would be the premier pay-up option of this week if he was on the main slate. Make him showdown Captain. The best way to return fire on the 49ers is with WRs. Unfortunately, the Chargers’ WRs are hurting badly. Keep an eye on the injury report leading up to game time.
Allen ($8600) is a high-ceiling play if he is fully cleared. Stack him with former Viking Stefon Diggs ($8300) and/or Gabe Davis ($6400), as the Vikings rank last against non-slot WRs. Bring it back with Justin Jefferson ($8800) while the Bills DBs are all hurting. Kirk Cousins ($6000) is a gangster.
The Colts are somehow a featured team. With a fresh head coach, a mobile quarterback, and facing a bad Raiders defense, I don't hate it. The Las Vegas defense ranks 32nd in sack percentage, 28th in opponent first downs per game, 30th in 3rd down conversion percentage, and 28th in interception percentage. If ever there was a matchup to insert Sam Ehlinger ($5000) as your QB, it is this week. Pair him with Michael Pittman ($6200) or Parris Campbell ($3900); the Raiders are ranked 32nd against slot WR.
The last time I faded an overrated RB against a top-four rush defense, Mixon exploded. So, I cannot discount the potential for Josh Jacobs ($7600), but the best way to beat the Colts is with TE, followed by WR. Will Darren Waller ($4900) ever find his health? If so, I am in. Davante Adams ($8700) is always an option, as is Derek Carr ($5600).
Waivers
Check out what my colleagues are saying about waiver pick-ups! Odell Beckham and Terrace Marshall are the “Juniors” that strike my fancy.
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Check in again next time for The Wednesday Watchman: Week 11!
(Data courtesy of SIS and TruMedia Networks)
