Betting
10/12/22
6 min read
TNF: Week 6 Player Props for Commanders vs. Bears
Week 5 props were unforgiving. Packers WR Randall Cobb has his best-receiving performance in five years, getting 13 targets and making every other receiver in Green Bay irrelevant. Then, Patriots RB Damien Harris went down early, allowing Rhamondre Stevenson to post 161 rushing yards against a terrible Detroit Lions rush defense.
Finally, Bills QB Josh Allen broke a 21-yard scramble late in the third quarter - up 28 points at the time - to go over 40.5 rushing yards by just 1.5 yards. Our process led us to some good plays; we just had some unfortunate luck go against us. Overall, we finished 6-5 on props and are now 31-27-2. As always, plays for Thursday's Bears-Commanders game are posted in the order I like them, with my favorite last.
Brian Robinson OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards
Robinson is an incredible story. He was shot twice in the right leg on Aug. 28 in an attempted carjacking but returned to the field this past weekend. Even more incredible is that he stole the starting running back role from Antonio Gibson in his first NFL game. While Gibson still had more snaps than Robinson, it was close.
Robinson had 16 snaps compared to 19 for Gibson, and I would be surprised if Robinson doesn't have more snaps than Gibson Thursday night. Robinson had only 20 yards on nine carries against a good Tennessee rush defense. Now, he gets the Chicago Bears, who are giving up the third-most rushes of 10 yards or more.
The Bears' rush defense has been getting annihilated for the past three weeks. They gave up 94 rush yards to Vikings RB Dalvin Cook, 146 to Giants RB Saquon Barkley, and 132 to Packers RB Aaron Jones. While Robinson isn't the same caliber of player as those players right now, those yardage totals are promising for this over bet. I would play this into the mid-50s, but not higher since he will probably still split some carries with Gibson.
Darnell Mooney OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards
Mooney has been a bust this season, along with the rest of the Bears' offense. However, there are reasons to be excited about this matchup with the Commanders. Mooney has 21 targets this season, and more than half of those targets have been on throws with more than 10 air yards. Eight of those targets have been on throws of more than 20 air yards. On almost 40% of his targets, he is being targeted more than 20 yards downfield.
The Commanders' pass defense happens to give up the third-most plays of 25 or more yards. I don't think Mooney will have a massive night, but 43.5 receiving yards is an extremely low bar for him to get over based on his usage. Mooney should get over this low line even if he gets just two receptions. I would not play it much higher, and I would not play it if it gets to 50 receiving yards.
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Justin Fields Under 165.5 Passing Yards
I know it is not ideal to have a receiver over on receiving yards and their QB under on pass yards, but hear me out. Fields has barely had a clean pocket to pass from this season. Chicago's offensive line has allowed pressures on 62 of Fields' 130 dropbacks. The reason I still like Mooney over is that on those 68 dropbacks that Fields didn't face pressure, Mooney had 28% of the targets. Even if Fields is under pressure a lot, he should still be able to get a few targets to Mooney.
Now, back to the Fields line: the Commanders have one of the highest pressure rates this season. They have pressured QBs on 37.2% of dropbacks this season - 2% higher than the Packers, who pressured Fields on 9 of his 17 dropbacks. Fields has been abysmal when pressured, completing less than 30% of his passes and throwing an interception on 11% of his throws.
While I really like this play, I would wait until closer to game time because I think there's a good chance that this line will go up. Many sportsbooks have this listed at 175.5, but PrizePicks has it listed aggressively at 165.5. Since this line is already very aggressive, I wouldn't play it much lower, probably just down to 160.5 pass yards. PrizePicks doesn't have interceptions listed yet, but if they list a 0.5 interception line for Fields, smash that over, too.
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Carson Wentz OVER 227.5 Passing Yards
Through 5 games, Wentz has gone under the radar and had several great statistical performances. Amazingly, he has three games of 300+ passing yards and two or more passing touchdowns, and he's going against a Bears defense that is 21st in defensive pass EPA per 100 snaps at -6.8, according to TruMedia. The two teams that Carson Wentz failed to pass for 300+ yards and 2 or more touchdowns came against two of the top pass defenses per defensive pass EPA per 100 snaps. The Cowboys rank 6th with 8.0, and the Eagles rank 3rd with 10.4.
While Wentz has been bad against some statistically good defenses, he was able to tear apart the Jaguars in Week 1. They rank 5th in defensive EPA per 100 snaps, and that game is the only game this season in which the Jaguars' defense has had a negative pass EPA. He has been tearing apart bad pass defenses, too, as he had nearly 700 pass yards and 5 touchdowns against the Lions and Titans combined.
Wentz has been getting a lot of heat this season, but statistically, he hasn't been horrible. That is all that matters when it comes to betting. I am not the only one on Carson Wentz this week. Our Director of Fantasy and Betting, Josh Larky, has Wentz ranked as his QB9 for the week. I would confidently bet this line up to around 250 pass yards.
WATCH MORE: Former NFL Head Coach Dave Wannstedt previews Commanders vs. Bears.
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