Analysis
11/17/22
12 min read
To Fade or Not to Fade: Week 11 NFL Betting Narratives
Every week I’ll dissect various narratives that affect NFL betting lines. This is vital, considering that most bettors digest these same narratives weekly. The betting public is more grandiose than ever. While that’s exciting, it also means sportsbooks can lure and fool action junkies into taking a lousy wager based on repeated narratives purported by the media. My job is to ensure these narratives do not trick you.
I only have one betting narrative this week that I’d like to discuss, but it’s a big one.
Few NFL teams have a consistent, week-to-week identity.
DO NOT FADE
This is something I’ve been honing in on and betting on for the last few weeks. The word identity is defined as “the state or fact of remaining the same one or ones, as under varying aspects or conditions, or the condition of being oneself or itself and not another.” When you break down what the word means, it’s self-evident that very few teams exemplify such a designation. In my opinion, only five teams exhibit consistent behaviors every single week:
Tennessee Titans
At 7-2 against the spread (ATS), no team has been more consistent than the Titans. Mike Vrabel has his team prepared and sharpened before every game, and last week was a great example. The Denver Broncos were coming off a bye, and two stud pass-rushers, Jeffery Simmons and Bud Dupree weren’t going to play. Deep into the second quarter, the Titans were down 10-0 against a stingy Broncos defense. It didn’t matter. The Titans scored a touchdown right before the end of the first half and shut out the Broncos for the rest of the contest. They won 17-10, even though star running back Derrick Henry only ran for 53 yards on 19 carries.
The Titans just find a way. Tennessee has now won six of their last seven games. Their only loss was a tight game against the Chiefs at Arrowhead. They’re a run-first team, and their defense is as tenacious as it gets. Even without Simmons and Dupree, they sacked Russell Wilson six times last Sunday. No one should be surprised if the Titans are, again, at the top of the AFC Conference come playoff time.
Kansas City Chiefs
This one is probably a little more obvious. You can’t talk about consistency in the NFL without mentioning Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes’ team. Entering the 2022 season, many predicted that Kansas City would eventually stumble. The Chiefs have the hardest schedule in the NFL, and their divisional rivals vastly improved in the offseason. Davante Adams went to the Raiders, the Chargers reloaded their defense, and the Broncos acquired Russell Wilson. The Chiefs are unphased.
Kansas City sits two games ahead of any other team in the AFC West with a 7-2 record. If the playoffs started now, they would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference. Their offense is first in points per game (30), first in touchdowns per game (3.8), and first in passing yards per game (313.9). They’re also a top-two team in third down, fourth down, and red-zone conversion rate. Their defense, which allows only 99 rushing yards per game, is a top 5 unit against the run. At 4-5 ATS, they don’t always cover the spread, but we know what to expect from this team every week.
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins know exactly who they are. Now that Tua Tagovailoa is back in full health, the Dolphins look exactly like the team who shocked the world at the start of the season. Few NFL fans would have guessed that Miami would open their season 3-0, but that’s exactly what happened. Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins out-played the New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills in close wins. Tua’s well-documented concussion caused a leak in the dam – Miami lost their next three games by an average margin of 14.3 points. It appeared their magic was over.
Tua and McDaniel had different plans. The Dolphins have now won four straight games and sit comfortably atop the AFC East. Over those four games, which are not so coincidentally, where Tua was healthy, the Dolphins have scored 30.25 points per game. Tua threw for 307.5 pass yards, and the dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle averaged 198 reception yards per game during that span. The Dolphins’ defense still needs work, but their offense has a true identity. Miami might be a real problem for other AFC teams come playoff time, especially if they get home-field advantage.
Philadelphia Eagles
Despite suffering their first loss against the Washington Commanders in Week 10, few could contend that the Eagles haven’t been incredibly consistent this year. Arguably the most talented roster in the NFL, second-year coach Nick Sirianni has his team playing mentally tough and disciplined football. No team has more top 10 designations on both sides of the ball, and betting markets have adjusted. The Eagles are big favorites on a regular basis, including this week’s visit to Indianapolis (they’re -6.5 to -7 on the road). Some things we can come to expect from Philadelphia on a weekly basis include:
- A sustained rushing attack; they rank third at 32.9 carries per game
- They’ll get to your quarterback; they rank fifth in sack rate
- A stingy defense; they rank second in yards allowed per play (4.6)
- They convert in big-game situations; they’re top 5 in third down, fourth down, and red zone (TD) conversion rate
- And while they start off slow in the first quarter, they do most of their damage before halftime– ranking No. 1 in first-half points (19.4) and No. 1 in second-quarter points (14.8)
On Monday Night Football, we finally saw the Eagles look vulnerable. The Commanders continued their run with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. They converted on 12 of their 21 first-down tries and scored 32 points at Lincoln Financial Field, one of the NFL’s toughest environments. It was an impressive feat for a surging Washington squad, but I’m not concerned for the Eagles.
Even with an easier schedule, starting a season with eight straight wins is incredibly difficult. This is a tenacious, experienced football team with a burgeoning superstar in Jalen Hurts. Even better, Hurts has become a true leader, saying all the right things off the field and showing steady determination on it. Equipped with more than one veteran leader on defense and dynamic talent on both sides of the ball, I can continue to trust that the Eagles will perform at a high level. Bet this team cautiously– they won’t surprise as many teams in the second half of this season– but remember how consistently exceptional they’ve played. That doesn’t just die after one loss.
New York Giants
Chris is being a homer by including the Giants! Ahem, I think not. With the Titans as the best ATS team in the NFL (7-2), the New York Giants have created a very solid team identity and haven’t changed it all year. The biggest difference: new coach Brian Daboll. It’s easy to see in post-game interviews or his interactions with players, Daboll has that rare influence-intangible that most coaches wish they possessed. Like Mike Tomlin or Bill Parcells, Daboll loves his players but knows how to assert himself when his team needs it most. It’s created a belief I haven’t seen in the Giants for nearly a decade.
The Giants run the ball on 56.53% of their plays, that’s fourth overall among all teams, and they rush for more yards than 29 other squads. They have an under-talented but true bend-don’t-break defense, too. They’re second overall in third down conversion rate (32.71%) and second overall in red zone (TD) conversion rate (38.24%). They’re also top 5 in time of possession and giveaways per game. Combine all that data, and it’s plain to see why the Giants are not an easy out. They’ll keep games close or beat you; they rarely beat themselves.
Other Teams
You’d think the Bills would be on the above list, but lately, we’ve seen some disappointing results and uncharacteristic play from Josh Allen and their offense. I can’t say I’m too worried about Buffalo, though. They’re still at the top of my power ratings, and they have all the tools to become as dominant as they were at the start of the season.
Other NFL teams are showing signs that they could be among the most consistent teams in the NFL. Let’s take a look at some teams that are almost there:
New England Patriots
Struggles in their passing game have kept this team from being consistently productive on offense, but we know how good their defense can be. Teams simply cannot throw the ball successfully on this team. They have the second highest sack-rate in the NFL (9.61%), they’ve had more interceptions than 28 other teams, and they permit the lowest pass-completion percentage (56.81%) in the league. New England’s run/pass ratio on offense is close to even (they run the ball on 47.35% of their plays), so they’re not just that predictable on that side of the ball yet.
New York Jets
The Jets are very similar to the Patriots. Their pass defense is top 10 in completion percentage allowed, interceptions, sack rate, and yards per pass. But too many turnovers (1.4 giveaways per game) and an inefficient pass game make the Jets a tough team to bet on game to game. They’re still a young team in growth mode, but they’re finally starting to form their identity behind a defensive-minded coach in Robert Saleh.
Minnesota Vikings
Unsurprisingly, the Vikings lead the NFL in luck rating, or else we might have them on our list. At 8-1, this is one of the league’s best teams. The problem is that the data hardly supports that. It’s also hard to accurately predict what their approach will be on a weekly basis. Their defense checks out as “okay” by most metrics, but their offense is beginning to take shape and form its own identity. Minnesota chooses to throw the ball on 63.9% of their plays; that’s fifth overall in the NFL. They’re utilizing their star players better and trusting Kirk Cousins to take them to the promised land. So far, it’s worked. Because of all the luck, we’ve seen (and to their credit, they put themselves in great situations) and because of the data disparities, we can’t consider them as having a true identity. They’re almost there, though.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow and his Bengals had a legitimate identity heading into last year’s Super Bowl. They were the underdogs, the team that fights, the team that surprised their opponent almost every week with tenacious defense and aggressive downfield throws. This year they have more of a target on their back. Teams know how good Joe Burrow is, and the Bengals have flailed a few times this season because of it. Safeties playing deeper, inconsistent line play, and injuries to their wide receivers haven’t helped.
Among all the teams who almost have an identity, the Cincinnati Bengals are the closest to finding one again. They have a top-10 passing game in all the categories that matter, they’re featuring Joe Mixon more, their offensive line has shown improvement, and their wide receivers are getting healthy. It wouldn't surprise me if this team made another run in the AFC playoffs. Joe Burrow has the grit and skillset to guide this team to the promised land once again.
The Rest of the League
The rest of the league is still pretty hard to trust. The Chicago Bears are becoming an “over-team,” with little defensive resistance but a lot of Justin Fields creating points. The Commanders are becoming more predictable behind gutsy quarterback play from Taylor Heinicke, a solid run game, and an improving defense that’s only allowed 17 points per game in their last five matchups. That includes limiting Philadelphia to only 21 points. And the Baltimore Ravens may turn into one of the more consistent teams if their defense continues to improve. Early indications of Roquan Smith’s effect on that unit certainly look promising.
If you’re asking head coach Pete Carroll, the Seattle Seahawks are a run-first outfit, but lately, Geno Smith’s passing has become their catalyst to success. Similarly, the San Francisco 49ers are a run-first team with some kinks to work through after trading for Christian McCaffrey. And teams like the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers are finally developing some consistency at the halfway point of the season. In their battle at Lambeau Field in Week 10, both teams opted to run the ball over 30 times. I’d expect more of that approach in the weeks to come.
Aside from analyzing data, which (sorry not sorry) anyone can do, it’s essential to extract consistent team tendencies to separate these squads and find an edge for your wagers. The journey continues, but something tells me that our top-six teams won’t change very much this season. Why would they? It’s working.
WATCH MORE: Chris Farley and Ryan Reynolds break down the entire Week 11 NFL Betting slate.
[bc_video video_id="6315740506112" account_id="6312875271001" player_id="default" embed="in-page" padding_top="56%" autoplay="" min_width="0px" playsinline="playsinline" picture_in_picture="" language_detection="" max_width="640px" mute="" width="100%" height="100%" aspect_ratio="16:9" sizing="responsive" ]
