Fantasy
1/9/23
22 min read
Underdog Fantasy Football Playoff Best Ball Guide for NFL Playoffs
This Underdog playoff best ball guide includes everything you need to confidently draft +EV teams before the NFL playoffs begin.
We'll walk you through the available contests, structure and basic rules. Then, we'll dive into basic strategy, along with high-level notes on all 14 playoff teams. Finally, we'll lay out a few of our preferred stacks and one-off players, along with three sample drafts.
Regular text denotes thoughts from Josh Larky, while italicized text signals insight from Ryan Reynolds.
Contests and Structure
All playoff best ball drafts on Underdog Fantasy are 10 rounds with six people drafting and generally take only 8-12 minutes to complete.
Each week, your best QB, best RB, two best WR/TE and best FLEX (RB/WR/TE) are chosen, and you'll get points for their half-PPR scores. Put another way, half your roster's fantasy scores (five of 10 players) will be counted each week.
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Gauntlet 2 - $25 Entry
45,216 Entries - $200,000 to 1st
Round 1 (Wild Card): Six-person drafts, with first place advancing to Round 2.
Round 2 (Divisional): All Round 1 advancing teams are randomly assigned to six-person groups, with first place advancing to Round 3.
Round 3 (Conference Championship): All Round 2 advancing teams are randomly assigned to eight-person groups, with first place advancing to Round 4.
Round 4 (Super Bowl): 157 teams compete for the $200,000 grand prize, with each team receiving a minimum payout of $800.
Full rules and prize structure for this contest are available here.
Mitten 4 - $5 Entry
56,520 Entries, $35,000 to 1st
Round 1 (Wild Card): Six-person drafts, with the top two teams advancing to Round 2.
Round 2 (Divisional): All Round 1 advancing teams are randomly assigned to 12-person groups, with the top two teams advancing to Round 3.
Round 3 (Conference Championship): All Round 2 advancing teams are randomly assigned to 20-person groups, with the top two teams advancing to Round 4.
Round 4 (Super Bowl): 314 teams compete for the $35,000 grand prize, with each team receiving a minimum payout of $50.
Full rules and prize structure for this contest are available here.
>> If you're new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code "33rd" for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
Basic Strategy Tactics
Having a Five-Man Roster for the Super Bowl
- The payout structure for both tournaments is top-heavy, so getting a team into the final round is the main way to make money with this format.
- You'll want to ensure it's possible to field a complete roster for the Super Bowl. If your team includes Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, then can field five players if it's a Bengals-Vikings Super Bowl. However, if you have 10 AFC or 10 NFC players, or no more than two players from any individual team, then your team will be dead in the final round since other entrants will have more players tallying up fantasy scores than you do.
- I'd aim for 5-7 players from the AFC or NFC and then 3-5 players from the other conference.
Roster Construction
- For most drafts, you'll want 1-2 QBs, 1-4 RBs, and 4-7 WRs/TEs on your roster
Understanding Playoff Schedule
It's important to be aware of which teams are playing each other in the NFL playoffs early on. If the vast majority of your 10 players face off against each other in the Wild Card round, then you're going to lose a massive portion of your roster after Round 1. Additionally, we can map out the Divisional Round (Round 2) as well, to take this one step further
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AFC Playoff Picture
Saturday Night: Chargers (5) at Jaguars (4)
Game Total: 47.5, Chargers 1-point favorites
Sunday Afternoon: Dolphins (7) at Bills (2)
Game Total: 44, Bills 10.5-point favorites
Sunday Night: Ravens (6) at Bengals (3)
Game Total: 43.5, Bengals 6.5-point favorites
No. 1 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs
- When drafting Patrick Mahomes (ADP 2) and Chiefs players be cognizant that none of them will accrue points for Round 1 (bye).
- Chiefs players are better suited to the Mitten 3 contest where two of six teams advance out of Round 1, making it easier to weather a few zeroes from your roster in the Wild Card round.
- The Chiefs most likely play the Chargers or Jaguars in Round 2. I'd keep my exposure to Chargers/Jaguars players minimal in Chiefs' stacks.
- It's just about impossible to stack Mahomes with Travis Kelce (ADP 8). Jerick McKinnon (ADP 16) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (ADP 28) are the early to mid-round options. Kadarius Toney (ADP 42), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ADP 55) and Mecole Hardman (ADP 58) all have interesting late-round potential, while each being low-floor options.
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No. 2 Seed: Buffalo Bills
- It will be just about impossible to stack Josh Allen (ADP 1) with Stefon Diggs (ADP 6) since the Bills will be playing in Round 1.
- With Bills stacks, you likely need to draft 2-3 of Gabe Davis (ADP 19), Devin Singletary (ADP 27), James Cook (ADP 36), Dawson Knox (ADP 38) and Isaiah McKenzie (ADP 46).
- John Brown is the best late-round, undrafted option for Buffalo. He caught his lone target for 42 yards and a TD in Week 18. The speedy veteran ran only five routes, but he's one of the few players that can crack your best ball lineup on only one play.
- Overall, the Bills are not a preferred team to target. It's almost impossible to draft Allen and Diggs on the same team based on ADP. None of the other Bills' skill players are anywhere near the talent of Diggs. Should the Bills make noise in the playoffs, it almost certainly comes through big games from Diggs.
- Rather than stacking Allen, pair Diggs with Cowboys, Vikings or 49ers stacks. Having Diggs with 1-2 additional Bills skill players as a run-back to NFC stacks is a more realistic way to approach this team.
- Avoid Dolphins players in your Bills stacks (obviously). Assuming the Bills beat the Dolphins, the Ravens are the next-lowest potential advancing seed, and would then play the Chiefs. There is no scenario where Buffalo plays the Ravens in Round 2 of the playoffs, so they're the preferred AFC team to target when drafting Bills players. However, I would still prioritize NFC players with Bills' stacks.
No 3. Seed: Cincinnati Bengals
- Joe Burrow (ADP 6) plus Ja’Marr Chase (ADP 5) is the most achievable, high-end stack. Adding Joe Mixon (ADP 17), Tyler Boyd (ADP 36) or Hayden Hurst (ADP 53) is doable, and there is the off-chance you can sneak Tee Higgins (ADP 14) into your stack.
- Samaje Perine is an interesting way to draft a unique Bengals stack, as he goes largely undrafted. We already know Perine is an RB1 when Mixon is out, and should Mixon get injured in Round 1 or Round 2, Perine immediately becomes the most important player to have on your best ball teams for the later rounds of the tournament.
- Assuming the Bills take care of business against the Dolphins, then the Bengals will face the Bills in Round 2. I'd avoid Bengals and Bills players on the same best-ball team.
- Target 49ers, Cowboys, Vikings and Buccaneers players when drafting Bills. The Giants are also interesting, as they are only 3-point underdogs against the Vikings. However, it's tough to envision the Giants' roster winning in Round 2 against the Eagles or 49ers.
- We are both in agreement the Bengals are the best stack to target in these drafts. It's easy to obtain both Burrow and Chase. The Chiefs and Bills are difficult to stack, so Cincinnati is the only top AFC team that's actually attainable when picking fifth or sixth in drafts.
No. 4 Seed: Jacksonville Jaguars
- The Jaguars are only slight underdogs against the Chargers in their matchup. This matchup has the closest betting spread among all six games this weekend.
- The Jaguars have already beaten the Chargers, which makes them an interesting team to grab late shares of.
- Should the Jaguars beat the Chargers, they most likely face the Chiefs in Round 2, so I'd avoid too much exposure to Chiefs players in Trevor Lawrence (ADP 54) stacks.
- Because no Jaguars players are consistently taken in the first seven rounds, pair the Jaguars with a premium NFC opponent like the Eagles, 49ers or Cowboys.
No. 5 Seed: Los Angeles Chargers
- The Chargers are peaking at the right time, and they can beat anyone. It's a stackable, elite offense, but they may draw Andy Reid’s Chiefs coming off a bye in Round 2.
- Austin Ekeler has the highest ADP (16), so you can pair the Chargers with any NFC opponent of your choosing.
- The Chargers are a great pairing for Eagles stacks, as the Chargers-Jaguars game has the highest betting total in Round 1. Big performances from Ekeler, Justin Herbert (ADP 32) and Keenan Allen (ADP 27) can offset zeroes taken from Eagles players in Round 1.
- If adding other AFC players to Chargers stacks, the Bills and Bengals can be considered. They're unlikely to face the Chargers until Round 3 of the tournament.
No. 6 Seed: Baltimore Ravens
- When drafting Ravens stacks, target a premium NFC opponent early on.
- Avoid Chiefs players in Ravens' stacks. Kansas City is the Ravens' most likely opponent should they advance out of Round 1.
- I’d be surprised if the Ravens won multiple playoff games, but if Lamar Jackson (ADP 51) is back, they are dangerous against anyone. Jackson plus Mark Andrews (ADP 46) is an interesting late-round, bye-filling stack if you take Jalen Hurts as your primary quarterback.
No. 7 Seed: Miami Dolphins
- I would operate as if Tua Tagovailoa is healthy enough to start in the playoffs since this team has a minimal chance of upsetting Buffalo with Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson under center.
- While no Dolphins players are drafted in the first eight rounds, I would only make a couple of Dolphins teams, maximum. Their path in the playoffs involves Buffalo in Round 1 and the Chiefs in Round 2 should they advance.
- Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could be very valuable Round 1 options in a negative game script against Buffalo.
- Both these receivers are interesting Round 9 or Round 10 picks, where a spike week could help you advance out of Round 1, even if Miami loses to Buffalo.
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NFC Playoff Picture
Saturday Afternoon: Seahawks (7) at 49ers (2)
Game Total: 43, 49ers 10-point favorites
Sunday Afternoon: Giants (6) at Vikings (3)
Game Total: 47.5, Vikings 3-point favorites
Monday Night: Cowboys (5) at Buccaneers (4)
Game Total: 45.5, Cowboys 3-point favorites
No. 1 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles
- Eagles stacks are best suited for the Mitten 3 contest, where two of six teams advance out of Round 1.
- Because no Eagles players will accrue any Round 1 points, I'd only draft three or four Eagles players, knowing you then have six or seven players to score points in Round 1.
- Because the Chiefs are also on bye, you cannot stack Eagles with Chiefs, or you'll score no points in Round 1.
- Philadelphia is dealing with some injury uncertainty, but they have the best roster in the league at full strength. Hurts (ADP 4) and Allen are the two dual-threat quarterbacks in the playoffs with the most likely paths to a Super Bowl.
- Non-Ja'Marr Chase Bengals, Chargers and Jaguars are the easiest run-backs for Eagles stacks. Herbert and Lawrence are both high-upside QBs that can help you weather zeroes from Eagles players in Round 1.
- The Eagles face the lowest remaining seed in Round 2, so 49ers and Vikings players are the safest NFC options to draft in tandem.
No. 2 Seed: San Francisco 49ers
- You could argue San Francisco has the best roster in the league, and they haven’t lost a step since Brock Purdy (ADP 27) took over. The 49ers are a team capable of winning in multiple ways, and we already saw them lose a close game in the NFC Championship last season. So, we know they can get there.
- It's easy to build 49ers stacks, and they actually pair nicely with the Chiefs, if you want a premium AFC opponent. Christian McCaffrey (ADP 3) with Kelce (ADP 8) is a realistic start through two rounds and doesn't preclude you from adding Deebo Samuel (ADP 12), McKinnon (ADP 16), George Kittle (ADP 17), and/or Brandon Aiyuk (ADP 23).
No. 3 Seed: Minnesota Vikings
- Minnesota has a talented offense and a below-average pass defense, which makes them a shootout team with a solid chance to play at least two games. Justin Jefferson (ADP 11) is hard to draft at current ADP unless you expect the Vikings to get to the conference championship.
- The Vikings likely need to beat both the 49ers and Eagles in Rounds 2 and 3 to advance to the Super Bowl, which is a tall task.
- This is not a team to draft too heavily, given their negative point differential on the season.
- Because no Vikings outside of Jefferson go in the first four rounds of drafts, it's an easy team to pair with a premium AFC opponent like the Chiefs, Bills or Bengals.
No. 4 Seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- No Buccaneers players are drafted within the first five rounds, so you can pair them with any of the premium AFC opponents.
- Tom Brady has led the NFL in pass attempts and completions each of the past two seasons. If you're drafting Tampa Bay players for a Super Bowl run, this is a great team to onslaught with five or six players.
- Tampa Bay’s offensive explosion is encouraging for their playoff prospects. The Dallas Cowboys aren’t exactly an insurmountable object in Round 1.
- If you draft as if the Buccaneers reach the Super Bowl, drafting only Leonard Fournette (ADP 50) and Rachaad White (undrafted) at RB is a fun way to get unique. We've seen at least one — and sometimes both — of them get there in fantasy each week, with the TDs being fairly unpredictable.
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No. 5 Seed: Dallas Cowboys
- The Cowboys are slight favorites against Tampa Bay on the road, and most likely face the Eagles or 49ers in Round 2.
- Like the Buccaneers, if you think the Cowboys reach the Super Bowl, drafting only Tony Pollard (ADP 20) and Ezekiel Elliott (ADP 33) at RB is a great way to field a unique roster in these tournaments.
- Dallas is a good team that can win a game in multiple ways, which is a common trait among successful postseason teams. That said, Dak Prescott’s teams have underwhelmed in big spots, and the truth is the Cowboys had a better roster last season.
No. 6 Seed: New York Giants
- There is a tremendous amount of Giants hype going around in sports media since last week, but that hype hasn’t had much of an impact on ADPs for New York players. That said, Daniel Jones (ADP 57) is a premium runner at the quarterback position, and the Giants took the Vikings to the brink a few weeks ago. Saquon Barkley (ADP 32) isn’t a bad mid-round option where you’re expecting major usage in the Wild Card round.
- Should the Giants win, they face the Eagles or 49ers, so avoid those teams in your Giants stacks.
- Because the Vikings' secondary is a complete liability, drafting a WR like Darius Slayton (undrafted) is a good way to have a high-upside player to help you advance out of Round 1. Even if the Vikings beat the Giants, if your last-round pick scores 15-20 points to help you advance, that's a successful selection.
No. 7 Seed: Seattle Seahawks
- Seattle has the most unlikely path to go on a long playoff run, but DK Metcalf (undrafted) is a last-round option with the kind of spike week potential to get you through Round 1 in a best-case scenario.
- Simply drafting Seahawks will lead to a unique roster build, so I'd only focus on the big four of Geno Smith, Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Kenneth Walker, all of whom go undrafted.
- Pair Seattle players with the Chiefs, Bengals or Bills players. I wouldn't try to get cute and predict a lower seed from each conference reaching the Super Bowl.
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Player Takes and Stacking Strategy
- If you’re drafting Mahomes (ADP 2), target Purdy (ADP 27) or Cousins (ADP 43). I’m not opposed to pairing Mahomes with Herbert (ADP 32) or Jackson (ADP 51), but you are limiting your endgame viability with those options. I’ve gone out of my way to create several Chiefs and 49ers teams, where you could conceivably have the quarterback for both Super Bowl teams if you grab Purdy, who has an excellent matchup against the Seahawks in Round 1. Cousins threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns against the Giants a few weeks ago, so his Round 1 upside is very clear. With Cousins, you also have some chance of having access to both quarterbacks in the Super Bowl.
- If you're drafting Jalen Hurts (ADP 4), you can still sneak Bengals onto your team. If you begin with Hurts and A.J. Brown (ADP 10), you can draft two of Higgins (ADP 15), Mixon (ADP 18) and Boyd (ADP 36). Miles Sanders (ADP 22) can also fit into this build, and then you have five players from Philadelphia and Cincinnati for the Super Bowl.
- If you're drafting Hurts (ADP 4) with Brown (ADP 10) or DeVonta Smith (ADP 16), target Herbert (ADP 32) with Ekeler (ADP 16), Allen (ADP 27) and/or Williams (ADP 38). Herbert has significant upside in the Wild Card round against the Jaguars. He also has some cost-effective potential of being the other QB in the Super Bowl if you’re building an Eagles team.
- Williams is expected to play Saturday, as he was removed from Week 18 due to back spasms, which should be resolved later this week. If you expect the Jaguars to win over Los Angeles, you can target Lawrence (ADP 54), Etienne (ADP 45), Kirk (ADP 52), Zay Jones (undrafted), and/or Evan Engram (undrafted).
- Because it's nearly impossible to get Mahomes (ADP 2) and Kelce (ADP 8) or Allen (ADP 1) and Diggs (ADP 7) on the same team, the Chiefs and Bills are better suited as run-back teams. Having Kelce with McKinnon (ADP 16), Smith-Schuster (ADP 28), Pacheco (ADP 40) or Toney (ADP 43) is a great pairing with a 49ers, Cowboys, Vikings or Buccaneers' stack.
- Pacheco's ADP has plummeted recently, but there's a decent chance he faces the Chargers in Round 2, who he had more than 100 yards against earlier this season. On the Bills front, pair Diggs with 1-2 of Davis (ADP 19), Singletary (ADP 27), Cook (ADP 36), or Knox (ADP 38). You can easily make a 49ers, Cowboys, Vikings or Buccaneers stack in tandem.
- If you’re drafting McKinnon (ADP 16) or Sanders (ADP 22), target Etienne (ADP 45). Etienne gets a potential smash spot against the Chargers. As of late Sunday night and into early Monday morning, Etienne still goes in the seventh to eighth round range. Even if the Jaguars lose to the Chargers, Etienne can help your Eagles and Chiefs' stacks survive the Round 1 bye and advance to Round 2.
- If you're drafting Buccaneers players as if they reach the Super Bowl, load up with three or four skill players in addition to Brady (ADP 49). The Buccaneers led the NFL in pass attempts and completions in 2022, and both RBs are highly involved in the passing game. I'd grab Godwin (ADP 34), Evans (ADP 38), and possibly both Fournette (ADP 50) and White (undrafted). Even Russell Gage (undrafted) is interesting, as he's been more heavily utilized in recent weeks. You get your pick of any AFC team as a stacking partner since no Buccaneers players consistently go before Round 6.
- Pair Purdy (ADP 27) with a higher upside QB, while preparing for a 49ers' Super Bowl run. Purdy doesn't have the upside many other QBs in the playoffs do, but the 49ers are genuine title contenders. You can realistically stack two or more of their high-end skill position players. Grab McCaffrey (ADP 3) with at least one or two of Samuel (ADP 13), Kittle (ADP 17) and Aiyuk (ADP 23). Herbert (ADP 32), Jackson (ADP 51) and Lawrence (ADP 54) are all higher-upside AFC QBs that you can stack late and pair with the 49ers.
- From a pure game theory standpoint, the Vikings are the No. 3 seed, and they have a supremely talented offense. Yet they are being treated like a Wild Card team. If you have a significantly large portfolio, you should have some exposure to Jefferson (ADP 11) plus Dalvin Cook (ADP 25), paired with Allen (ADP 1) and Mahomes (ADP 2) teams. Chase (ADP 5) plus Jefferson, Cook and Cousins (ADP 43) is an interesting, realistic way to build a Bengals versus Vikings Super Bowl matchup. Chase plus Burrow (ADP 6), with Cook and a late Vikings' pass catcher, is an alternative way to create a Bengals versus Vikings team.
- Draft McCaffrey (ADP 3) and Samuel (ADP 13) on the same team. Samuel’s ADP has been creeping up over the last week, but I go out of my way to pair McCaffrey with at least one of the 49ers' premium pass catchers. Samuel is my preference. You can often sneak in Diggs (ADP 7) or Kelce (ADP 8) before grabbing Samuel in Round 3, setting yourself up for a 49ers-Bills or 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl, two of the most-common outcomes based on current Super Bowl odds.
- Draft CeeDee Lamb (ADP 11) with Prescott (ADP 25), and one or both of Pollard (ADP 20) and Elliott (ADP 33). I am not a Cowboys bull, but the NFC is considerably thinner this year than it was last season. This type of stack gives you an enormous portion of the Cowboys' offense, and you should have some exposure to this group if you have a significant portfolio. Like the Buccaneers, you can draft both Pollard and Zeke on the same team, potentially as your only RBs. You get different, while still having the potential for both RBs to enter your lineup in the same week.
- Draft an uncorrelated RB or WR with upside in Round 9 or Round 10. Last year, we saw Davis record eight catches for 201 yards and four TDs in Round 2 of the tournament. There are often a couple of players that go off, especially at WR, and they may be the key to helping you advance in Round 1 or Round 2. Slayton (undrafted) gets the Vikings' beatable secondary. Etienne (ADP 45) faces a Chargers run defense allowing the most yards per carry to RBs in the entire NFL. Elijah Mitchell (ADP 53) just had two TDs against the Cardinals in Week 18, and faces a Seahawks team allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to ball carriers.
- One of Tyreek Hill (ADP 51) or Jaylen Waddle (ADP 58) likely has a monster game against a struggling Bills secondary, regardless if Miami wins or loses. Williams (ADP 38) can have 100 yards at any time and faces a below-average Jaguars secondary in Round 1. Kirk (ADP 52) and Jones (undrafted) both topped 16 fantasy points when they faced the Chargers back in Week 3. One of Metcalf or Lockett (both undrafted) likely has a big game against the 49ers, regardless of the game's outcome.
- Consider Jackson (ADP 51), Andrews (ADP 46), and J.K. Dobbins (ADP 56) when stacking Eagles. This is an inexpensive way to get high-scoring players for Round 1 that will help you weather the zeroes from Philly players. You can also draft Jackson in isolation if targeting the Chiefs, so your ninth or 10th-round pick is a highly mobile QB that can bridge the gap until Mahomes (ADP 2) starts in Round 2.
Sample Drafts
Below are a few attainable drafts using current ADPs.
Sample Draft 1: Bengals-Cowboys Super Bowl
Not only does this team have eight players from the potential Super Bowl matchup, but you add Travis Etienne and Adam Thielen as two upside players that can help you advance in Round 1 or 2.
Round 1: Ja'Marr Chase (ADP 5)
Round 2: Joe Burrow (ADP 6)
Round 3: Joe Mixon (ADP 18)
Round 4: Tony Pollard (ADP 20)
Round 5: Ezekiel Elliott (ADP 33)
Round 6: Tyler Boyd (ADP 36)
Round 7: Dalton Schultz (ADP 39)
Round 8: Travis Etienne (ADP 45)
Round 9: Michael Gallup (ADP 51)
Round 10: Adam Thielen (ADP 57)
Sample Draft 2: 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl
This team has seven players for the Super Bowl, while also having a higher upside QB in Lamar Jackson that you can pair with Brock Purdy for the first 1-2 rounds of the tournament.
Round 1: Christian McCaffrey (ADP 3)
Round 2: Travis Kelce (ADP 8)
Round 3: Deebo Samuel (ADP 13)
Round 4: Jerick McKinnon (ADP 16)
Round 5: Brock Purdy (ADP 27)
Round 6: JuJu Smith-Schuster (ADP 28)
Round 7: Mike Williams (ADP 38)
Round 8: Mark Andrews (ADP 46)
Round 9: Lamar Jackson (ADP 51)
Round 10: Elijah Mitchell (ADP 53)
Sample Draft 3: Eagles-Chargers Super Bowl
Despite losing three Eagles players to a first-round bye, this team has enough firepower to advance out of Round 1. This team is sneakily positioned for both an Eagles-Chargers Super Bowl (seven players) or a Chargers-Buccaneers Super Bowl (six players). Waddle has the potential for 20 fantasy points in Round 1, regardless of the game's outcome.
Round 1: Jalen Hurts (ADP 4)
Round 2: AJ Brown (ADP 10)
Round 3: Austin Ekeler (ADP 16)
Round 4: Miles Sanders (ADP 22)
Round 5: Keenan Allen (ADP 27)
Round 6: Justin Herbert (ADP 32)
Round 7: Mike Evans (ADP 38)
Round 8: Mike Williams (ADP 38)
Round 9: Leonard Fournette (ADP 50)
Round 10: Jaylen Waddle (ADP 58)
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We hope you found this Underdog playoff best ball guide helpful. Best of luck when drafting.
WATCH: Betting the NFL Playoff Edition
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