NFL Analysis
2/18/25
11 min read
Minnesota Vikings’ Offseason Plans: Franchise Tag, Free Agency & Darnold's Future
The 2025 NFL contract season ramps up this week with the opening of the franchise/transition tag period from February 18 through March 4. Free agency is around the corner beginning March 10 but tampering will begin in earnest at next week’s Combine.
While most NFL teams will avoid the pricy franchise/transition tags that hit their salary cap at the one-year tender rate, there are a few teams with potential free agent stars they want to keep and tagging them is the appropriate vehicle until they can perhaps negotiate long-term deals. Utilizing the tag also keeps the possibility of trading a player alive.
The Minnesota Vikings are one such team where there is a lot of speculation regarding the possibility of placing the franchise tag on quarterback Sam Darnold. He was one of the league’s biggest 2024 success stories for 16 games until he flopped in the two biggest games—the regular season finale at Detroit with the division title and No. 1 NFC seed on the line and in the wild card playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
I think the Vikings will use their franchise or transition tag in the next two weeks. But I don’t think it will be on Darnold. Pro Bowl corner Byron Murphy Jr. is the player I think they’ll tag. More on Murphy later since the bigger story is what happens with Darnold.
The 27-year old is a former New York Jets bust as the third overall pick in 2018, followed by a shaky two years in Carolina before a year as the backup in San Francisco.
Darnold experienced a career revival in Minnesota. He was selected to his first Pro Bowl in a career-best season. He surprisingly led the Vikings to 14 wins (twice as many as most people expected including Vegas with their 6.5 wins projection). He posted career-highs with a 102.5 passer rating (sixth-ranked among starters), 4,319 passing yards and 35 TDs (both fifth-ranked). He also ran for 212 yards and 23 first downs.
The Vikings have 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy apparently recovered from knee meniscus surgery that ended his rookie season after the first preseason game. Using the franchise tag on Darnold—while redshirting McCarthy for at least one more year--was a distinct possibility as a precursor to a two or three year deal until midnight struck on Darnold’s Cinderella season. He completed only 18 of 41 passes against a suspect Lions defense in Week 18 and followed it with two costly turnovers (including a fumble that was returned for a TD) and took nine sacks in the playoff loss.
It wasn’t all his fault as the offensive line played poorly the last two weeks but Darnold held the ball too long, was indecisive and inaccurate as he missed too many open receivers (including his all-pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson twice in the end zone at Detroit). He was so discombobulated by the Rams pass rush that he couldn’t even complete swing or screen passes to his backs a couple of times.
Darnold benefited last season from an excellent supporting cast of skill position players (Jefferson, WR Jordan Addison, TE T.J. Hockenson and RB Aaron Jones). And he was tutored by one of the league’s top QB-whisperers in head coach and play caller Kevin O’Connell (named NFL Coach of the Year with his work in elevating Darnold’s play a key factor). The Vikings defense helped the offense by forcing a league-high 33 takeaways.
With an estimated $61 million in 2025 salary cap room as of now, placing the projected $41 million franchise tag on Darnold (or $35 million via the transition tag to retain a right of first refusal without the draft choice compensation that comes with the franchise tag) would tie up that amount entering free agency. That’s an unlikely path for Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell to choose when they have so many key players they want to re-sign. That list likely starts with a vet QB in the $10 million range (Darnold, Jones or another QB), Murphy as a top corner and Aaron Jones.
They’ll also have to make decisions on other pending free agents who were starters or key rotation players including: CBs Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin, safeties Harrison Smith and Cam Bynum, D-linemen Jerry Tillery and Jonathan Bullard, edge/OLB Pat Jones, OG Dalton Risner, OT Cam Robinson and RB Cam Akers.
I think the Vikings will try to re-sign Darnold in a similar role as last season to be a veteran bridge to McCarthy and be the starter if he clearly wins the job in training camp or if McCarthy gets hurt again. It makes sense for the Vikings to try and sign Darnold on another one-year deal at a slight raise over the $10 million they paid him last season and offer huge incentives if he is the starter and wins playoff games.
Despite his late season struggles, Darnold will likely be the top QB available if he hits free agency. The draft class also is lackluster compared to last year’s QB group.
If Darnold gets a lucrative long-term offer in free agency similar or above Baker Mayfield’s three-year, $100 million deal signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year, I see the Vikings thanking him for his service and saying goodbye as they dangle the one-year bridge offer to Daniel Jones who ended the season on the Vikings active roster after several weeks on the practice squad.
O’Connell has praised Darnold’s “body of work” while also saying he’s a fan of Jones (who led the Giants to a victory over the Vikings in the 2022 wild card round in O’Connell’s first season as Vikings coach).
While it was a great achievement for Darnold to win so many regular season games, competing for championships is the goal of all teams. I think it comes down to this question: how can the Vikings trust Darnold in a game for the NFC North title or a playoff game after he laid an egg against the Lions and Rams at crunch time
I see the Vikings brass deciding it’s time to turn the keys over to the 22-year old McCarthy as the starter on his cap-beneficial rookie contract which was the goal when they jettisoned the expensive Cousins and picked McCarthy to join Darnold in the QB room. It’s not really a consideration in team decision-making but the local media and Vikings fans would support the move to McCarthy as the expected starter.
Patrick Mahomes was the 10th overall pick in 2017, the same spot McCarthy was selected last year. Mahomes backed up Alex Smith in his rookie year (a playoff season) before Andy Reid made Mahomes the starter in his second season and he led the Chiefs to the AFC title game while earning league MVP honors. I’m not saying McCarthy is going to be Mahomes but the Vikings most likely want to see what he can do, even if there are some growing pains early.
O’Connell can play the part quite well with McCarthy that Reid did in coaching up Mahomes. As was the case with Darnold, McCarthy has the benefit of being coached by two former NFL QBs in O’Connell and Vikings QB Coach Josh McCown.
Despite being out injured during the 2024 regular season, McCarthy got plenty of reps during the 2024 offseason, through half of training camp and in the first preseason game against the Raiders when he played six series over two-plus quarters and completed 11 of 17 passes for 188 yards, two TDs and one interception. He also rushed twice for 18 yards in that game in which he sustained the meniscus injury.
After his surgery for a full repair, McCarthy was in the QB meetings, team meetings, took mental reps on the practice field and was on the sidelines at games the rest of the year. So he has a solid foundation in O’Connell’s offense and the intricacies involved. He also should be stronger after a year working with the team’s strength coaches.
McCarthy was a clutch player in college in the big games, unlike Darnold in the last two games. The NFL is a big step up but McCarthy led Michigan to the 2023 national championship and was outstanding as a passer and runner in the playoffs and title game. McCarthy could be the dual threat QB that teams seek--in the mode of Super Bowl QBs Mahomes and Jalen Hurts along with the likes of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels.
In his limited play time last season and at Michigan, he showed the ability to make the off-schedule plays that are so critical to an NFL QB’s success.
I like McCarthy’s chance to succeed quickly if he stays healthy and if the team uses their substantial cap room to beef up the interior offensive line by signing a couple of top free agents to join an elite pair of tackles in Brian O’Neill and Christian Darrisaw (who should be recovered from his mid-season ACL injury).
McCarthy would then have a solid line to go with one of the league’s best group of skill position players led by Jefferson (especially if the team taps into their cap room to re-sign a pending free agent in Jones who is coming off his best season in combined yards rushing and receiving--1,546 yards).
O’Connell got the best years of their careers out of Kirk Cousins and Darnold. He’s surely confident he can develop McCarthy into a Pro Bowl caliber QB who can be clutch and win postseason games.
The case to put the franchise or transition tag on Byron Murphy
It’s logical for the Vikings to use their franchise or transition tag on Murphy who is coming off his best season with six interceptions (3rd in the league), 14 passes defensed and 81 tackles as he started every game (after missing three games in 2023).
With all three of their corners who started (Murphy and Gilmore) or played a lot as a third corner (Griffin) headed to free agency, the pressure is on to try and keep a couple of these players. The 27-year old Murphy is in his prime and he’ll be the top priority to retain on defense.
The going rate for Pro Bowl corners ranges from Chicago’s Jaylon Johnson at $19 million per year to Jalen Ramsey and Pat Surtain at the top of the corner salary scale at $24 million per year.
I think the Vikings would like to re-sign Murphy for about $17 million per year but it’s likely to take $19-20 million per year to get the deal done. So why not put the franchise tag on Murphy (as the Bears did last year with Johnson) at a projected $20 million to take him off the market (as no team is going to give up two No. 1 picks for a corner) or go the transition tag route at $17 million to at least retain a right of first refusal.
The Patriots put the transition tag on safety Kyle Dugger last year before signing him to a four-year $58 million deal.
Tagging Murphy makes more sense to me than franchising Darnold for $41 million, utilizing the QB transition tag at $35 million or committing to a contract in the $30-40 million per year range (that would have a lower cap hit with a big signing bonus) since McCarthy is in house and Daniel Jones is a possible bridge QB.
After tagging Murphy, the Vikings still can negotiate a long term deal that will lower his cap number to the $10 million or less range for 2025. Then they would have $50 million or so to sign a couple top free agent O-linemen, a vet QB, Aaron Jones and a bunch of their defensive free agents while adding another free agent corner.
The Vikings of course will also tap into the draft to add needed help but they only have three picks currently (No. 24 in the first round and two fifth-round picks) and are expected to get a third-round compensatory pick for losing Cousins and Danielle Hunter in 2024 free agency.
Stay tuned to the Vikings who are going to be one of the most interesting teams to follow in the weeks ahead, starting with what they do—if anything--during this franchise/transition tag period.
