NFL Analysis
1/14/25
6 min read
Vikings Should Stick With Sam Darnold Long-Term Despite Playoff Disaster
The Minnesota Vikings face one of the toughest quarterback decisions of any team this offseason. However, if the team wants to continue to be a Super Bowl contender in the coming seasons, the right decision is to stick with Sam Darnold over J.J. McCarthy.
Darnold had his worst game with Minnesota in the 27-9 wild-card loss to the Los Angeles Rams. On top of being pressured constantly and taking nine sacks, Darnold completed 25-of-40 passes for 245 yards, a touchdown, an interception, and a lost fumble. It was one of the worst efficiency games from any quarterback this season, generating -23 total EPA and -0.42 EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.
The performance is likely to crush Darnold's market value. However, from the Vikings' perspective, they shouldn't let this performance get in the way of bringing the journeyman quarterback back to Minnesota and start looking for trade partners for McCarthy
Sam Darnold's Prove-It Year
For a quarterback who had been patiently waiting for his breakout opportunity, Darnold finally got to prove what he's capable of in 2024.
Darnold set career-high marks across the board in his first season with the Vikings. Along with staying healthy for a full year, Darnold threw for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and just 12 interceptions with a 102.5 passer rating.
What made Darnold such a dominant passer this year was his ability to shred blitzing defenses. According to PFF, when facing extra rushers, the Vikings quarterback posted an absurd 121.9 passer rating with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions against the blitz.
This cutup shows just how lethal Darnold was at carving up blitzes during the first month or so of the 2024 season.
Sam Darnold pass attempts vs. blitz through 5 games. pic.twitter.com/ZMrlwC3Wui
— Warren Ludford (@wludford) October 8, 2024
Darnold wasn't going to just dink and dunk down the field this year, either. He posted a 106.0 passer rating on passes 20-plus yards downfield. His best game of the season came last year against the Atlanta Falcons, where he threw for five touchdowns, including a pair of deep shots.
This is a strong body of work for a journeyman quarterback and one who wasn't afraid to push the ball vertically, posting one of the highest average depth of target rates at 9.3 yards. That's a big departure from Kirk Cousins in 2023, with the former Vikings' quarterback posting an aDOT of 7.7 last season.
That kind of confidence going deep is precisely what's been missing in Minnesota's offense, especially with one of the best wide receiver duos in the league featuring Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The two wideouts combined for 984 yards and eight touchdowns on 27 catches that were 20-plus yards downfield, showcasing their breakaway speed and Kevin O'Connell's scheme to get them open.
Darnold is exactly the kind of quarterback that the Vikings needed, as long as they can protect him in the pocket. His passer rating dropped to 84.1 when throwing under pressure this season, and his pressure-to-sack ratio was one of the worst among full-time starters at 21.7 percent.
If the Vikings are willing to invest further into their offensive line to keep the pressure off Darnold, then games like the one on Monday night will happen way less frequently. He was pressured on 54 percent of his dropbacks with a 33.3 pressure-to-sack ratio, completely destroying his confidence to throw his receivers open.
Given what he looked like in previous years, it appears that will always be a flaw in Darnold's game. However, that flaw can be minimized with continued investment in the offensive line, and the Vikings should take that course instead of ushering in a young successor.
The J.J. McCarthy Dilemma
The Vikings took a big swing on McCarthy, taking him with the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. However, it might be the right move for both parties for the Vikings to start seeking a trade partner.
McCarthy was an exciting dual-threat quarterback out of Michigan, coming off of a national championship before being drafted. He even shined in preseason action for Minnesota, completing 11-of-17 passes for 188 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception for a 116.8 passer rating. He also went a perfect 3-of-3 on deep shots, showing his arm talent and accuracy to push downfield.
This was JJ McCarthy’s Preseason Debut … he lit it up 👀
— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) December 30, 2024
Is he worth a first rounder if the #Vikings decide to sign Darnold long-term? 🤔
(🎥 @NFL) pic.twitter.com/HWKCE7ClQn
However, there are now long-term concerns about McCarthy's future due to his season-ending meniscus injury. To make matters worse, McCarthy had to get a second surgery on his meniscus later in the year, putting his long-term health into question.
Still, those flashes from this preseason suggest that McCarthy could be a legitimate starting quarterback. Still, the Vikings no longer have the luxury of being patient with his development due to a roster that looks ready to compete for a Super Bowl right away.
The good news for the Vikings is that the 2025 NFL Draft isn't exactly top-heavy with QB talent. A team with a need at the position could be more interested in McCarthy than in what's available in the draft. That could allow the Vikings to get more draft capital than they would in other offseasons for their young quarterback.
It should be noted that the Vikings don't have many draft picks this year. They rank last in Tankathon's Draft Capital Power Rankings, with four total picks, and only two are in the top 100 (No. 24, 97).
For a team that wants to keep contending right away, getting additional capital to build around Darnold might ultimately be the right decision while allowing McCarthy to have an opportunity to start for an NFL team once he's healthy.
A Blessing in Disguise?
Darnold may have tanked his market value after a brutal last couple of games for the Vikings. However, that might end up being a long-term blessing for the Vikings.
If the Vikings want to trade McCarthy and stick with Darnold, they may no longer have to pay top dollar for the journeyman veteran quarterback. Top-of-market money at the position could be upwards of $50 million per year, and the Vikings would be better suited for a more team-friendly deal to keep building around their quarterback.
The good news for the Vikings is that they're in pretty good financial shape. They have nearly $70 million in cap space for 2025 and over $100 million in 2026. They could afford to pay top dollar to Darnold in theory, but they'll need to address other needs to keep bolstering a contender-caliber roster this offseason.
Darnold could be willing to take a pay cut to stay in Minnesota. It's the first organization that has fully bought into his ability and allowed him to put up career numbers in 2024. There aren't many, if any, other destinations this offseason where Darnold could play for an immediate contender in 2025, making Minnesota an even more preferable location.
The players and fanbase have rallied around Darnold, so expect a reunion between the two sides this offseason at a reasonable price tag for their new franchise quarterback.
