NFL Analysis
9/20/24
6 min read
Vintage Rodgers' Return Signals Boost in Jets' Playoff Hopes
Is Aaron Rodgers back? The answer to that question could shape the AFC playoff picture. And it was one of the lingering questions coming into the year.
The last time we saw a full season of Rodgers, it wasn’t the peak version of the quarterback who won league MVP in the previous two seasons. Rodgers was physically hampered by multiple injuries and mentally rebelled against the offense without trust in the structure of young receivers on the field. On plays from a clean pocket, the most stable situation for a quarterback, Rodgers ranked 30th in EPA per play.
Of course, four plays into his Jets tenure, Rodgers tore his Achilles. That left the question of whether the old Rodgers would ever return or if the 40-year-old quarterback would need to adjust his game to a new reality. Based on the preseason expectations of this Jets team entering the 2024 season, many were expecting the former.
The results through two weeks? Eh.
Rodgers was back in the mental aspect, but the passing offense looked limited, especially on early downs. The Jets relied on screens and quick throws to the flats on early downs, and then Rodgers pulled out a trademark sideline fade that looked like a long handoff on third downs or late in the game.
He also didn’t look particularly mobile. Rodgers played 94.5 percent of his dropbacks in the pocket, per TruMedia. Through two weeks, Rodgers averaged -0.10 EPA per dropback with a 40.4 percent success rate. He was getting the ball out quickly to avoid pressure (2.32 seconds), and 37 percent of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Vintage Rodgers Returns
That was not the case in Week 3 when the Jets defeated the New England Patriots 24-3. Rodgers was still doing some of the Rodgers-type things, like getting the ball out (2.39 seconds) and using screens and flats to get easy throws, but he looked healthier and more mobile — much closer to the version of Rodgers most were hoping for.
Against a Patriots defense that had shown a wide variety of pressure looks in the first two weeks (though only ranked 27th in pressure rate), Rodgers moved and made plays outside of the pocket, the biggest sign there could be more to come for this Jets passing offense.
Through the first two weeks, Rodgers was 0-for-2 on pass attempts outside the pocket. Against the Patriots, Rodgers went six-for-six on plays outside of the pocket, averaging 14.7 yards per attempt on those throws.
Many of those plays involved Rodgers going on the move and finding players settling into open voids in the defense. He also had the quick flick-of-the-wrist and changed-arm angle throws on the money that had not left his arsenal.
Much of that added mobility came from more snaps under center. Through two weeks, Rodgers was under center 37.6 percent of the time. That jumped to 48.6 percent against the Patriots.
When under center, Rodgers mixed in play-action, boots, and quick screens that changed up the timing and what New England could have expected when not in the shotgun.
When under center in Week 3, Rodgers went 10-of-12 for 0.40 EPA per play, even as his average depth of completion was 2.8 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. During the first two weeks, he was 3-for-10 and averaged -0.46 EPA per play with a 0.7 average depth of completion.
Rodgers went from half of his early down under center throws being behind the line of scrimmage in Weeks 1 and 2 to 27.3 percent in Week 3. Instead, 61 percent of his throws were to the short area of the field between 1-10 air yards. Those are more valuable throws than receiver screens or throws to running backs in the flat.
Passing Game Versatility
With those throws, the Jets got tight ends more involved in the passing game. If there is something else positive to take out from the first three games, it’s that the Jets have been open to shifting to what works in a given game.
In Week 1, Garrett Wilson got a lot of 1-on-1 coverage, so the targets went there. Last week, the running backs had a lot of space in the passing game. Against New England, the short middle of the field was open while the Patriots protected the sidelines. The variation should be positive, leaving the passing offense with more options.
If Rodgers continues to play like this, the Jets should remain in playoff contention throughout the season. That doesn’t mean that Rodgers will be an MVP-caliber quarterback, but with his defense playing like one of the league's best units, he doesn’t have to be.
We will get interesting tests for Rodgers during the next two weeks. In Week 4, the Jets host the Denver Broncos. The Denver defense has blitzed at the highest rate in the league through two weeks. However, it's in a league of its own between the rate of blitzes on early downs and third downs.
Then, in Week 5, the Jets travel to Minnesota to play the Vikings and a Brian Flores defense that has made life difficult for opposing quarterbacks this season. Flores arguably does the best job in the league of mixing up looks at the line of scrimmage while playing sound split safety coverages behind it.
The Jets play the Bills the following week.
This will also be done without RT Morgan Moses, who was injured against New England and is expected to miss a few weeks. The Jets drafted Olu Fashanu in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and the college left tackle will now have to slide in to play right tackle with Moses out. It's a great insurance policy that already is paying out, but it is also the first crack in a fragile offensive line that was a concern coming into the season.
This next three-week stretch should tell us a lot about this Jets offense, how Rodgers will hold up, and what expectations could be for the remainder of the regular season.
For now, it was great to see a return to form from Rodgers on Thursday night — great unless you’re an upcoming opponent.
