Betting
12/3/22
7 min read
Week 13 High/Low Underdog Fantasy Picks
Thursday night was about an average night for us. If you add in the Rhamondre Stevenson 4.5 reception line that was eventually posted, our picks went 2-2, with our most confident pick of the night hitting. That brings our total up to 73-65-2 with just a few weeks left in the regular season. There were not as many obvious high-confidence plays this week, but I was able to find six that I like enough that I will be playing them this week, as well as a correlated play I really like.
Kirk Cousins HIGHER than 0.5 interceptions
Kirk Cousins plays the Jets this weekend, who have been one of the best defenses at forcing turnovers this season. They are currently tied for the third-most interceptions in the league with 12. Only Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow and Mac Jones have played a game without at least one interception against the Jets. They also have the second-highest interceptions per pass attempt percentage at 3.3%. Cousins is averaging 37.6 pass attempts per game this season. Just looking at the probability, there is a high chance that he will throw an interception when you combine his high number of pass attempts and the Jets' high interception percentage. There is luck associated with turnovers, so I cannot be super confident in this play, but I rate it 3/5 and would not play it higher.
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Cameron Dicker HIGHER than 2.5 XP Made
It takes a lot for me to feel confident in a kicker pick, but I can't help but target the Raiders defense. The Raiders are giving up 2.91 touchdowns per game, the third-most touchdowns per game in the league. Kickers facing the Raiders have also attempted at least 3 extra points in 7/10 games so far this season, with only Brandon McManus on the Broncos, Ka'imi Fairbairn of the Texans, and Chase McLaughlin of the Colts having less than 3 attempts in a single game. Those kickers just happen to be on the three offenses with the least amount of touchdowns per game this season. So it is no surprise they were not able to get 3 extra point attempts.
The Chargers rank 17th with 2.45 touchdowns per game, so they are not great at scoring touchdowns, but there is no reason to fade them when they are facing this bad of a defense. Due to the randomness of the kicker position, I still cannot be very confident in this play, and so I rate it 3/5 and would not play it any higher.
Latavius Murray LOWER than 53.5 Rush Yards
Murray looked great against a terrible Carolina rush defense last week, going well over his line and finishing with 92 rush yards. Murray goes from playing one of the worst rush defenses to one of the best. The Ravens allow only 82 rushing yards per game, the second-best in the league. They are also allowing only 68 rush yards per game to running backs.
This Broncos offense looks broken. They have the fewest touchdowns scored so far, and Denver also leads the league in punts. The Broncos punt nearly 6 times a game, whereas the Ravens only punt 3.3 times per game, the 6th lowest in the league. Not only is Latavius Murray going against a great run defense, but he is likely to be game-scripted out of the game with how bad the Broncos offense is. Because Murray barely splits touches, he had 87% of running back rushes this last week, I cannot feel too confident in this play, and so I rate it 3/5 on confidence and would play it down to 50.5.
Mike White HIGHER than 33.5 Pass Attempts
Mike White solidified his position as the starting quarterback for the Jets after a strong performance against the Chicago Bears last week. This week he gets the Minnesota Vikings, who will likely put up more of a fight than the Bears did. A competitive game means Mike White will get more chances to pass throughout the game. In his two starts last season in which he played most of snaps, he averaged 44.5 pass attempts per game. Minnesota's offense has been scoring so much that opposing teams have had to do their best to catch up with them. Opposing quarterbacks have attempted 35.5 pass attempts against them per game, the 6th most in the league. I expect that trend to continue, and so I give it a confidence rating of 4/5 and would play it up to 35.5.
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George Pickens HIGHER than 48.5 Receiving Yards
Since Chase Claypool was traded after Week 8, Pickens has had a 17.4% target share. While that isn't the most impressive number, he has had 33.1% of the team's air yards since Week 9. That ranks 23rd in the league since Week 9 and is ahead of players such as Courtland Sutton, Garrett Wilson, and Christian Kirk. Pickens has had such a large percentage of the Steelers' air yards because his average air yards per target has been 15.25, the fourth-most across the league since Week 9.
The Falcons have given up the fourth-most completions over 20 yards per game this season. Combine that with Pickens' depth of target, and he could have a massive game this week. All we care about is beating his line, though, and it will likely just take two to three completions for Pickens to go higher than this line. This Falcons defense should provide Pickens plenty of deep ball opportunities, so I rate this 4/5 and would play this to 57.5 receiving yards.
David Montgomery HIGHER than 67.5 Rushing Yards
This is one of those lines that did not make any sense when I was scrolling through Underdog looking for picks. In Week 2, Montgomery rushed for 122 yards on 15 carries against the Packers. Not only has Montgomery been successful against the Packers, almost every running back they've faced has had a great game against the Packers' terrible run defense. They have given up 1857 rushing yards this season, the most in the league. They're also giving up an average of 127 rushing yards per game just to running backs.
I tried figuring out why the lower-than side would be a good play, and I cannot find much to support it. In the last two games since Khalil Herbert's season-ending injury, Montgomery has had a 67% rush share, splitting running back rushes with Darrynton Evans and Trestan Ebner. He isn't getting elite running back usage, but he is still getting most of the rush attempts in this offense. He also has gone over 67.5 rush yards only twice this season, but one of those times just happened to be against Green Bay. I can't ignore how bad the Packers rush defense is, and he still sees a majority of running back rushes for this offense, so I am very confident in this play. It is my only 5/5 confidence play this week, and I would play it to 75.5 rush yards.
Play of the Week:
David Montgomery HIGHER than 67.5 Rushing yards
AND
Aaron Jones HIGHER than 58.5 Rushing Yards
AND
Aaron Rodgers LOWER than 231.5 Passing Yards
AND
Justin Fields LOWER than 163.5 Passing Yards
I am going with this correlated play from the Bears and Packers game as my play of the week. I am fairly confident that this is going to be an extremely run-heavy game, as neither of these teams is great at stopping the run. Also, with both quarterbacks coming back from injury, I think both teams will want to try and use them as little as possible.
WATCH: The 33rd Team's Player Prop Happy Hour with Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds and Ben Wolbransky
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