Analysis
1/7/23
11 min read
Week 18 DFS Main Slate Tournament Picks: Stack Ohio Offenses in AFC North Battles
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.
Below we will take a look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
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Notes for Week 18
If the Bengals win, the Chargers' playoff seeding cannot change, and I don’t expect their starters to get significant usage.
The Giants and Buccaneers cannot change playoff seeding.
Double Stacks
Stack: QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase and WR Tee Higgins
Runback: TE Mark Andrews
Joe Burrow didn’t have much to offer in the first matchup with the Ravens; however, Tee Higgins only ran 19% of the routes, and the offense had yet to find the rhythm that it has been in for recent weeks. The Bengals are also very motivated because if they lose, home-field advantage will be decided by a coin toss between these two teams. Five quarterbacks have thrown for over 300 yards against the Ravens' defense this year, and two have had three or more passing touchdowns. In the first matchup, the Ravens utilized Cover 4 on 64% of Burrow’s dropbacks, and they were able to do this because they were rarely trailing. With the offense the way it is, I expect that to be different, and once the Bengals start scoring, it’ll be difficult to slow them down.
In the last two seasons, Burrow has nine games over 300 yards passing. Chase has at least 70 receiving yards in every one of these games, while Higgins has at least 60 yards. Both players can put up over 100 yards in the same game against the Ravens' defense. The Bengals need to get a lead early in the game, get the Ravens into a single-high coverage, and push the ball over the top as they did in 2021.
Mark Andrews finally showed some chemistry with Tyler Huntley last week, and in a negative game script, I expect him to be heavily targeted. You do not need to run this game back because Burrow doesn’t need the Ravens to score to put up the big game, but Andrews is the player to do it with because of the scarcity at the position.
Stack: QB Geno Smith, WR DK Metcalf and TE Noah Fant
Runback: RB Cam Akers
Smith put up a big game against the Rams in their first matchup, and I anticipate a repeat performance if the weather can stay clear of raining too hard. Metcalf beat Jalen Ramsey in multiple situations and put up 127 yards while scoring a touchdown. The Rams utilize a lot of Cover 3 and Cover 4 coverage, and this year, Smith has been one of the best in the NFL against those coverages. When he has had over 60% of his dropbacks against those two coverages, only the 49ers limited him from throwing for 275 yards and under two passing touchdowns. Tyler Lockett had a big game in their first matchup, but with his hand injury, I am not expecting them to target him frequently.
The Seahawks have been one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending running backs, and Cam Akers is a workhorse for the Rams' offense. In the last five games, he has averaged 18 touches for 96 yards and 1.2 touchdowns. Akers will get a lot of the red zone, and the only other Ram to consider in this matchup will be Tyler Higbee. The Seahawks have struggled to defend tight ends, and Higbee has a high target share with Baker Mayfield.
Stack: QB Deshaun Watson, WR Amari Cooper and TE David Njoku
Runback: RB Najee Harris
The Steelers have given teams plenty of man coverage this year, and I believe the talent of these two pass-catchers can beat this defense. The Browns shouldn’t be utilizing Nick Chubb in a workhorse role because they aren’t playing for a postseason matchup. Against man coverage, Cooper has a 36.4% target share with Watson as the starter, and Njoku has a 37.5% target share in the red zone. This stack is also relatively cheap compared to some of the top ones and is not being played at a high rate.
The Browns' run defense is not the strong suit of this unit, and Harris has over 80 yards rushing in three of his last five games. The Steelers will hopefully play with a lead against the Browns and have Watson playing from behind in this game script. Harris has averaged 4.86 yards per carry against the Browns in his career and has scored in every game.
Stack: QB Andy Dalton RB Alvin Kamara WR Chris Olave
Runback: WR D.J. Moore
The Panthers' secondary got exposed by the Buccaneers last weekend, and it was on throws down the field. To prevent that from happening, I expect to see a lot of Cover 3 and Cover 4 coverage to begin the game, which will allow Kamara to have plenty of receptions because he is second on the team in targets per route against these coverages. Once they work him into the game, I expect the Saints to isolate Olave on C.J. Henderson and allow him to run deep routes against him. Andy Dalton is $4,800, and for him to be more than worth the price, he needs to have an 18-point day, and with that, I don’t mind pairing Kamara with him. If Taysom Hill cannot play, Kamara will have a lot of red zone touches and can have a great game, with Dalton paying off his price.
The Panthers runback is Moore for me, and it’s because of his connection with Darnold. Moore has had 70 yards and a touchdown in four out of five starts with Darnold. The Saints have allowed big games to wide receivers this season, and the Panthers will move Moore around enough for him to avoid shadow coverage with Marshon Lattimore.
Single Stacks
Stack: QB Jalen Hurts and WR A.J. Brown
The Eagles need to win to keep their one seed and have a bye week, and this is an easy spot for Hurts to put up massive numbers in one half against the Giants. We could see the Giants not play their starters, and their secondary was already depleted as it was. A.J. Brown has not enjoyed his time with Gardner Minshew as the starter, and Hurts will look for him in man coverage situations. I am not interested in doubling with this group because of the time limit they will have if the game gets out of hand too early. The Giants' backups on offense also do not interest me in this game, and I will not run it back with one of them.
Mini-Stacks
L.A. Chargers at Denver
RB Austin Ekeler and WR Courtland Sutton
In the case that the Ravens win, I believe the Chargers will want to keep their matchup with the Jaguars or Titans, and that will result in plenty of work for Ekeler. Ekeler had ten receptions in the first matchup, and I could see the high upside in receptions again. Kansas City's Jerick McKinnon had four receiving touchdowns against the Broncos' defense, and Ekeler can be utilized in a similar way.
Courtland Sutton is a price play, and because I believe Asante Samuel Jr. will be going Jerry Jeudy’s way. Sutton will have the matchup with Michael Davis, and he is beatable down the field. The Chargers will utilize a lot of single-high coverage, and both Sutton and Jeudy see plenty of usage against it.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
WR Julio Jones and RB Tyler Allgeier
The only reason I could see Brady wanting to play this game would be to get on the same page with players he hasn’t been able to get to this season, and I expect one such player to be Jones. Jones has a 19.5 aDOT against Cover 1 or Cover 3 coverage, and the Falcons have utilized this coverage at over a 60% rate in 12 games this season.
Tyler Allgeier has been an efficient runner this season, and the Falcons will have an advantage in the trenches with no Vita Vea. Over the past three games, Allgeier has averaged 98.7 yards rushing and has had at least 17 carries. The offense of the Buccaneers has something to play for, but the defense has proved all it needs to, and the main focus should be getting healthy for the playoffs.
One-Offs
RB Dalvin Cook
The Bears are starting Nathan Peterman and have given up over 200 yards rushing in back-to-back games. The only concern for Cook is how much usage he will see if the game gets out of hand, and how much usage Alexander Mattison will get. Since Week 11, the Bears have allowed six yards per carry, and on the season, they have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns.
If Jefferson plays the full game, he will have a chance to break the single-season receiving yardage record. The Bears have played a lot of Cover 1 in recent weeks to stop the run, and against that coverage, Jefferson averages 4.42 yards per route and a 33% target share.
WR Jahan Dotson
Dotson was at rookie camp with Sam Howell, and I expect the chemistry to be there between these two players. The Cowboys still have a chance at the division, so Trevon Diggs will shadow McLaurin, and I think Dotson can beat the secondary corners for the Cowboys.
Player Pool
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | DK Salary | FD Salary | VegasPts |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | vs NYG | $8,200 | $9,000 | 28.75 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | vs BAL | $7,300 | $8,200 | 24.25 |
| Geno Smith | QB | SEA | vs LAR | $6,000 | $7,300 | 23.75 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | @ PIT | $5,600 | $6,800 | 19.25 |
| Andy Dalton | QB | NO | vs CAR | $4,800 | $6,500 | 22.25 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | vs ARI | $9,300 | $10,000 | 26.75 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | @ DEN | $8,900 | $9,400 | 18.25 |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | MIN | @ CHI | $7,300 | $8,000 | 23.75 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | @ BUF | $6,700 | $6,600 | 18.25 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | vs CAR | $6,600 | $7,100 | 22.25 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | SEA | vs LAR | $6,400 | $7,700 | 23.75 |
| Cam Akers | RB | LAR | @ SEA | $6,200 | $7,300 | 17.75 |
| Najee Harris | RB | PIT | vs CLE | $6,100 | $7,200 | 21.25 |
| Miles Sanders | RB | PHI | vs NYG | $5,900 | $6,700 | 28.75 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | ATL | vs TB | $5,600 | $6,500 | 22.25 |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | TB | @ ATL | $5,500 | $6,600 | 18.25 |
| Latavius Murray | RB | DEN | vs LAC | $5,400 | $6,400 | 21.25 |
| Rachaad White | RB | TB | @ ATL | $5,400 | $6,500 | 18.25 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | RB | ATL | vs TB | $5,300 | $6,300 | 22.25 |
| Zack Moss | RB | IND | vs HOU | $5,200 | $6,800 | 20 |
| Keaontay Ingram | RB | ARI | @ SF | $4,800 | $5,500 | 12.75 |
| Jonathan Williams | RB | WAS | vs DAL | $4,300 | $5,000 | 16.75 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | @ CHI | $9,100 | $9,000 | 23.75 |
| JaMarr Chase | WR | CIN | vs BAL | $8,400 | $8,500 | 24.25 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | vs NYG | $8,000 | $8,300 | 28.75 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | BUF | vs NE | $7,900 | $8,400 | 25.25 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | vs BAL | $7,600 | $7,800 | 24.25 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | vs NYG | $7,500 | $7,700 | 28.75 |
| Mike Evans | WR | TB | @ ATL | $7,400 | $7,700 | 18.25 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | SEA | vs LAR | $6,700 | $7,200 | 23.75 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | vs LAR | $6,400 | $6,900 | 23.75 |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | DEN | vs LAC | $6,300 | $6,600 | 21.25 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | vs CAR | $6,200 | $6,700 | 22.25 |
| DJ Moore | WR | CAR | @ NO | $6,100 | $7,300 | 19.25 |
| Michael Pittman | WR | IND | vs HOU | $6,100 | $7,300 | 20 |
| Amari Cooper | WR | CLE | @ PIT | $6,000 | $7,600 | 19.25 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | vs DAL | $5,900 | $7,000 | 16.75 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | @ MIA | $5,800 | $7,100 | 17.25 |
| Josh Palmer | WR | LAC | @ DEN | $5,500 | $5,900 | 18.25 |
| Gabriel Davis | WR | BUF | vs NE | $5,400 | $6,400 | 25.25 |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | PIT | vs CLE | $5,200 | $6,300 | 21.25 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | NE | @ BUF | $5,100 | $6,500 | 18.25 |
| George Pickens | WR | PIT | vs CLE | $5,000 | $5,900 | 21.25 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | vs LAC | $4,800 | $6,400 | 21.25 |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | HOU | @ IND | $4,800 | $6,200 | 18 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | WR | CLE | @ PIT | $4,700 | $6,300 | 19.25 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | CIN | vs BAL | $4,600 | $6,200 | 24.25 |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | WAS | vs DAL | $4,500 | $5,900 | 16.75 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | NO | vs CAR | $4,200 | $5,800 | 22.25 |
| Julio Jones | WR | TB | @ ATL | $4,200 | $5,300 | 18.25 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | WR | CAR | @ NO | $3,400 | $5,500 | 19.25 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | @ CIN | $5,400 | $7,100 | 15.25 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | vs NYG | $4,900 | $6,200 | 28.75 |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | LAR | @ SEA | $4,400 | $5,600 | 17.75 |
| David Njoku | TE | CLE | @ PIT | $3,900 | $5,400 | 19.25 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | vs CLE | $3,800 | $5,500 | 21.25 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | vs CAR | $3,700 | $5,700 | 22.25 |
| Noah Fant | TE | SEA | vs LAR | $3,500 | $5,100 | 23.75 |
| Hayden Hurst | TE | CIN | vs BAL | $3,100 | $5,300 | 24.25 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | TE | DEN | vs LAC | $2,900 | $5,000 | 21.25 |
| Dolphins | DST | MIA | vs NYJ | $3,000 | $3,500 | 17.25 |
| Vikings | DST | MIN | @ CHI | $2,900 | $3,700 | 18.75 |
| Texans | DST | HOU | @ IND | $2,700 | $4,000 | 20 |
| Jets | DST | NYJ | @ MIA | $2,600 | $4,500 | 20.25 |
| Broncos | DST | DEN | vs LAC | $2,500 | $3,600 | 18.25 |
| Commanders | DST | WAS | vs DAL | $2,300 | $3,300 | 23.75 |
| Patriots | DST | NE | @ BUF | $2,200 | $4,000 | 25.25 |
Watch: Smash The Over On This Seahawks' RB
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