Analysis
9/16/23
4 min read
Week 2 Top Underdog Higher, Lower Entries To Consider
We will evaluate the higher, lower entries available on Underdog Fantasy each week and pick choice that leverage game environments and correlation to maximize value.
Week 2 Higher/Lower Entries
Michael Thomas LOWER than 52.5 receiving yards, Derek Carr LOWER than 242.5 passing yards and Stefon Diggs HIGHER than 6.0 receptions
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The New Orleans Saints played a pass-funnel Tennessee Titans defense last week and still had a negative one percent pass rate over expected (PROE). Last year, the Saints had a negative nine percent PROE. This week, they settle somewhere between the two numbers. Derek Carr is likelier to go under his passing yards contest if the Saints decrease their PROE.
Michael Thomas had a 20 percent targets per route run (TPRR) but only a nine percent first-read target share. If the Saints want to pass the ball, they will not want to run much of their offense through Thomas.
Despite an overall disappointing week one for the Buffalo Bills, Stefon Diggs' 33 percent target share shined through. This week, against a weaker defense, the Bills should rely on Diggs again. Additionally, no one else in the Bills receiving room significantly threatens Diggs’ alpha target share.
Play Thomas down to 50.5 receiving yards, Carr down to 240.5 passing yards, and Diggs as long as his reception contest stayed at 6.0.
Kyle Pitts LOWER than 3.5 receptions, Desmond Ridder LOWER than 186.5 passing yards and Jordan Love LOWER than 217.5 passing yards
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The Atlanta Falcons’ Week 1 performance and head coach Arthur Smith’s comments demonstrate a commitment to running the football. There's no reason for their intentions to change against the Green Bay Packers. Kyle Pitts’ reception contest is a bit high, considering the game script and his place in the pecking order (notably behind Bijan Robinson).
Betting and fantasy contests have partially captured the Falcons’ desire to run the ball, but Desmond Ridder’s contest is still at least five yards too high. The pairing carries immense value when factoring in the correlation with Pitts’ receptions under.
The Falcons likely embrace a run-heavy script in games where their passing attack disappoints. In these games, it is more likely that they burn the clock and hold the ball for more extended periods, making Jordan Love’s passing yards under attractive. If Christian Watson plays this week, it becomes slightly less attractive but still worthwhile.
Play Pitts as long as his contest stayed at 3.5 receptions, Ridder down to 186.3 passing yards and Love down to 215.5 passing yards.
Ja’Marr Chase LOWER than 7.0 receptions, Joe Burrow LOWER than 265.5 passing yards and Lamar Jackson LOWER than 20.35 fantasy points
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Since Mike MacDonald took over as the Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator, the two teams have failed to combine for more than 43 points once in the three games. Joe Burrow hasn't thrown for more than 217 yards in these three games.
Ja’Marr Chase’s reception contest should also be 6.5, so taking a lower on 7.0 gives the entry correlation at an advantageous number.
The Ravens’ offensive line is without two of its top starters. Adding Lamar Jackson under-correlates with the overall thesis of a low-scoring game environment in a game where the Bengals' passing attack disappoints.
Play Chase as long as his receptions contest stayed at 7.0, Burrow as long as his passing yards contest stayed above 260.5 and Jackson as long as his fantasy score stayed above 20.0.
Samaje Perine LOWER than 32.5 rushing yards, Brian Robinson Jr. HIGHER than 9.15 fantasy points, Russell Wilson HIGHER than 31.5 passing attempts, Adam Trautman HIGHER than 24.5 receiving yards, Joey Slye HIGHER than 1.5 XP Made
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This five-leg entry uses the thesis that the Washington Commanders take the lead early, preferably due to a Brian Robinson Jr. touchdown. If Robinson has a big day on the ground and the Commanders score two touchdowns, the two Commanders’ legs are likely to hit.
The Denver Broncos must adjust their tendencies in this game, switching to a far more pass-heavy approach. Russell Wilson will have to throw it often, and Adam Trautman seems like a logical checkdown candidate, especially with Greg Dulcich missing time.
If the Broncos have to pass the ball more in the second half, Samaje Perine is a candidate for a reduced rushing role.
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