Fantasy
10/1/22
10 min read
Week 4 DFS Main Slate Tournament Games
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.
Offenses are averaging 20.1 points per game, which is the lowest number in the last ten years. Teams are running Cover 1 at the lowest rate in the previous three years, and we see a lot more Cover 4 coverage. Teams will need an effective running game to take them out of these coverages or be able to take the short routes and turn them into yards after the catch to take advantage of these coverages.
Below we will take a look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, be sure to ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
Double Stacks
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Stack: QB Geno Smith, WR DK Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett
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Runback: TE TJ Hockenson
This game features one of the highest point totals on the slate, and I believe Seattle can take advantage of the Detroit Lions coverage. The Lions run man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and Smith has averaged over eight yards per attempt against that coverage over the last two seasons.
While Smith has been the QB, Metcalf has been his go-to player as he has been targeted 16 times on 39 routes with eight touchdowns. Lockett has 23 of his 25 targets this season against zone coverage, and even though there's going to be a lot of man coverage, we will still see zone at a higher rate because the league is still zone heavy. I am double stacking these two because it's an affordable double stack that dominates the target share with this team. Seattle has also talked about playing with a higher pace, and Smith ended up having 44 attempts last weekend.
The reason for running it back with Hockenson has a lot to do with Amon-Ra St. Brown missing. Hockenson profiles as a tight end that will win in the middle of the field, and St. Brown has dominated that area. The Lions will also be effectively running the ball, opening the door for him to be targeted off play action. The Seahawks are also giving up 15 yards per reception to TEs this year which is the most in the NFL. I am interested in Jamaal Williams, Josh Reynolds, and DJ Chark, all capable runbacks, but I have preferred the lineups with Hockenson in large field tournaments.
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Stack: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Romeo Doubs, TE Robert Tonyan
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Runback: RB Rhamondre Stevenson
The Packers have one of the highest implied totals on the slate, and for the first time this season, Rodgers will likely get man coverage at a high rate. The Patriots have run at least 30% man coverage each week this year; against man coverage, Rodgers averages 10.1 yards per attempt against man. I believe Belichick will look to take away Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon and make the Packers' pass catchers win in coverage. At the price, it intrigues me with Doubs, who has been targeted on 22.5% of his routes run and looks to be in a bigger role in the offense. Then you have Tonyan, who ran over 60% of the routes for the first time this year and looked to be in a full-time role.
This stack without the runback allows you to have $5,950 per player on DraftKings, and you will be able to jam in studs. The runback for me in this matchup is Rhamondre Stevenson because of his pass-catching role out of the backfield. I don't believe Brian Hoyer will push the ball down the field and, as a result, check it down to the running back, which Stevenson has taking the receiving workload. Stevenson has back-to-back weeks of over 20 routes run, and with the state of the running back position, a 15-point performance will get there in tournaments. The only other Patriots player I am looking to run back with is Jakobi Meyers, but he has been dealing with an injury.
NEW STACK BELOW
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Stack: QB Justin Herbert RB Austin Ekeler WR Mike Williams
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Runback: RB Dameon Pierce
Herbert is getting overlooked, and this matchup could be one of the higher point totals this week. The Texans have given up plenty of points to the top RB and WR options to warrant the price tags of these two players. Pierce and Brandin Cooks are both players you can run it back with, and you will want to so Herbert continues to pass. With JC Jackson returning and Joey Bosa leaving, I am leaning towards Pierce in this matchup.
Single Stacks
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Stack: QB Josh Allen & WR Gabe Davis
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Runback: RB J.K. Dobbins
The weather in this game is something to monitor, but for now, Allen is in my pool and a player to stack this weekend. The Ravens are giving up the fourth-most yards per attempt while in man, the 10th most in zone coverage, and the third most when they blitz. Allen is in a matchup where he will be able to take advantage of, and both wide receivers will have an advantage.
The Ravens' secondary has not performed the last two weekends, allowing over 150 yards to three different wide receivers. Stefon Diggs has been on a tear this year, but I am going to Gabe Davis because of the price that he brings and how Davis ran over 95% of the routes last weekend. Davis has been dealing with an ankle injury but was more than just a decoy last weekend, and with how the Ravens have gotten beat downfield, I expect Davis to get plenty of work.
As for the runback, I am going to JK Dobbins, who didn't play great last weekend but will be needed against this Bills' defense. Dobbins ran the most routes out of the backfield, and with the heavy zone coverage the Bills play, I expect Lamar to get him multiple receptions. The Bills did well against Miami's running game; however, with the attention they will have on Lamar Jackson, there will be running lanes for Dobbins to go through. This game is supposed to be a shootout, but I believe both teams will want to control the ball and sustain drives to keep these elite quarterbacks off the field.
Mini-Stacks
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ARI @ CAR
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WR Marquise Brown & RB Christian McCaffrey
Brown has elite-level usage right now, getting targeted on 23% of his routes run, 9.9 air yards per target, and a 20% target share vs. Man, Zone, and the blitz. Last weekend was the best weekend he has had, and after watching Chris Olave and Trequan Smith get open down the field, I expect Brown to do the same.
The Panthers are favorites in this game, and I believe we will see a heavy dose of McCaffrey, who has back-to-back games with 20 touches after only 15 in Week 1. Baker has not been able to get on the same page with these WRs, and I don't believe that will change in this matchup. McCaffrey has had over 100 yards rushing in two straight games but hasn't been able to get in the end zone.
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LAC @ HOU
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RB Austin Ekeler & WR Brandin Cooks
The Texans have given up two 30-point weeks to running back, and it is time for Ekeler to have his breakout game. With Justin Herberts' injury and no Keenan Allen, I will bank on Ekeler to get a heavier workload than he usually has. Ekeler has had frustrating usage to begin the year, but in this specific game, there is a clear advantage in the run game as the Texans have allowed two runningbacks to go for over 150 yards this season.
Cooks has been a frustrating player to have on your roster, but the usage is there. Over a 20% target share each week, the only WR running over 90% of the routes, no Joey Bosa for the Chargers, and possibly no JC Jackson. This is a spot where Cooks is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
One-Offs
RB Jonathan Taylor
Taylor has elite-level volume at the position that's not scoring much weekly. The Titans had issues with Saquon Barkley, and I expect them to have issues with Taylor. The problem with the Colts is that both Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. can have big games.
RB Saquon Barkley
Barkley is playing at an elite level, and with no wide receivers, he will get a ton of touches this weekend against a Bears team that's giving up 4.9 yards per carry.
RB Khalil Herbert
Herbert is the chalk running back this weekend with David Montgomery being out and how he performed after he went out. Herbert is a player I will get to in lineups where I already have unique players, but when I have more popular plays, I will be comfortable going to someone cheaper.
WR Michael Pittman Jr.
The Titans'secondary has allowed eight receiving touchdowns and over 140 yards to two different wide receivers to begin the year. Pittman is the alpha in this Colts' pass-catching room and will be a popular play against a weak secondary.
WR CeeDee Lamb
Michael Gallup is expected to return for the Cowboys, and I expect that to push Lamb into the slot more than he has been and creates a mismatch against the Commanders. Washington has given up three 100-yard receiving games this season, and most of that production came in the slot. Christian Kirk had 117 yards, Amon-Ra St. Brown had 116 yards, and DeVonta Smith had 90 yards. I will attack the Commanders in the slot, and that is Lamb this weekend.
Week 4 DFS Tournament Main Slate Player Pool
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | @ BAL | $8,400 | $8,900 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | vs NE | $6,300 | $7,400 |
| Geno Smith | QB | SEA | @ DET | $5,400 | $6,600 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | vs TEN | $8,800 | $8,700 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | CAR | vs ARI | $8,700 | $8,800 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG | vs CHI | $8,000 | $8,100 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | @ HOU | $7,700 | $8,400 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | GB | vs NE | $7,500 | $7,300 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DEN | @ LV | $6,600 | $6,900 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | DET | vs SEA | $6,100 | $7,400 |
| Khalil Herbert | RB | CHI | @ NYG | $5,700 | $7,200 |
| Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | @ PIT | $5,400 | $6,300 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | BAL | vs BUF | $5,300 | $5,800 |
| Damien Harris | RB | NE | @ GB | $5,300 | $6,200 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | @ GB | $5,200 | $5,900 |
| Michael Carter | RB | NYJ | @ PIT | $5,200 | $5,700 |
| J.D. McKissic | RB | WAS | @ DAL | $5,100 | $5,300 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | BUF | @ BAL | $8,400 | $8,700 |
| Michael Pittman | WR | IND | vs TEN | $7,200 | $7,500 |
| Mike Williams | WR | LAC | @ HOU | $7,000 | $7,200 |
| Marquise Brown | WR | ARI | @ CAR | $6,900 | $7,700 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | SEA | @ DET | $6,800 | $7,100 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | vs WAS | $6,700 | $6,800 |
| Gabriel Davis | WR | BUF | @ BAL | $6,600 | $6,500 |
| Allen Lazard | WR | GB | vs NE | $6,200 | $6,000 |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | PIT | vs NYJ | $6,000 | $7,000 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | @ DET | $5,900 | $6,900 |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | HOU | vs LAC | $5,800 | $6,400 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | vs JAC | $5,800 | $6,900 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | BAL | vs BUF | $5,600 | $6,600 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | @ PIT | $5,400 | $6,100 |
| DJ Moore | WR | CAR | vs ARI | $5,300 | $6,100 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | WR | BUF | @ BAL | $5,100 | $5,900 |
| D.J. Chark | WR | DET | vs SEA | $5,000 | $5,700 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | NE | @ GB | $4,800 | $6,000 |
| Elijah Moore | WR | NYJ | @ PIT | $4,800 | $5,500 |
| Chase Claypool | WR | PIT | vs NYJ | $4,700 | $5,700 |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | DET | vs SEA | $4,600 | $5,900 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | GB | vs NE | $4,500 | $5,900 |
| Corey Davis | WR | NYJ | @ PIT | $4,500 | $5,600 |
| Richie James | WR | NYG | vs CHI | $4,000 | $5,500 |
| George Pickens | WR | PIT | vs NYJ | $3,800 | $5,100 |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | vs NE | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | vs BUF | $7,100 | $8,400 |
| Darren Waller | TE | LV | vs DEN | $5,600 | $6,500 |
| Zach Ertz | TE | ARI | @ CAR | $4,700 | $5,500 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | DET | vs SEA | $4,100 | $5,400 |
| Dawson Knox | TE | BUF | @ BAL | $3,800 | $5,000 |
| Robert Tonyan | TE | GB | vs NE | $3,500 | $4,900 |
| Cardinals | DST | ARI | @ CAR | $2,800 | $3,200 |
| Bears | DST | CHI | @ NYG | $2,700 | $4,100 |
| Broncos | DST | DEN | @ LV | $2,700 | $4,000 |
| Commanders | DST | WAS | @ DAL | $2,600 | $3,800 |
| Jets | DST | NYJ | @ PIT | $2,600 | $3,600 |
| Titans | DST | TEN | @ IND | $2,500 | $3,900 |
| Texans | DST | HOU | vs LAC | $2,400 | $3,700 |
| Jaguars | DST | JAC | @ PHI | $2,300 | $3,500 |
WATCH MORE: DFS Expert Jordan Vanek explains why you should fade Lamar Jackson.
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