Betting
10/7/22
7 min read
Week 5 Matchups: Betting Breakdowns for Every Game
Going forward, we’ll be putting all of my matchups columns in one centralized place, with short summaries on each game. Main slate games will be coming in throughout Friday, while Sunday Night and Monday Night Football will be in by Saturday. Games with live matchups columns come with active links.
London: New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (Packers -7.5, 41)
After a 3-1 start, the Giants play up a class against Aaron Rodgers’ Packers on a neutral site in London. The question here is, how do the Giants generate offense with their replacement-level pass catchers and bottom-tier offensive line against the Packers' talented defense? My two primary concerns in taking Green Bay in a decisive win is that they played an overtime game last week, and games played in Europe bring an unwanted layer of variance in sports betting.
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (Bills -14, 46)
Buffalo has Josh Allen elevating their offense and their front four has a massive edge in the trenches against the Steelers' bottom-tier offensive line. That’s a very tough situation for No. 20 overall pick Kenny Pickett to make his first NFL start.
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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Buccaneers -10, 46)
This is an obvious correction spot for Tom Brady’s Buccaneers coming off two losses in a row. Atlanta has exceeded expectations through the first four games, but I think they turn back into a pumpkin in Tampa this week. The Bucs are a very strong survivor pool option. I play a three-team, ten-point teaser every week, and the Bucs are one of my legs.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (Vikings -7.5, 44)
As odd as it is to say, Minnesota is an underachieving 3-1 team heading into this matchup. The Bears have a non-functioning offense because they have bottom tier pass protection and a bottom-tier group of pass-catchers. If Chicago doesn’t get creative with Justin Fields to try and generate some offense in the air, Minnesota is well positioned to take this one down decisively.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (Jets +3, 46)
Teddy Bridgewater is a good backup quarterback that can win games like this with the Dolphins' supporting cast. The Jets look like they’ll be down to their fifth and sixth options at offensive tackle this week. Generally speaking, I’m interested in betting against teams in situations like that, and I have done so with Miami here.
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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Jaguars -7, 43.5)
I’m a believer in Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars' young, fast defense. That said, I’m still not ready to bet on this ascending team as a seven-point home favorite. This one is a pass for me.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (Browns +2, 47.5)
I dive into this one pretty deep because it reminds me of a game the Chargers played in Philadelphia last year. The big question for me here is will the Chargers deploy a more opponent specific defensive game plan against a Browns team that has a top-tier offensive line and rushing attack? Or will they continue to do what they do strategically while hoping Justin Herbert generates enough offense to win?
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Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (Patriots -3.5, 46)
The vast majority of the Lions' offense is on the injury report, while the Patriots will turn to Bailey Zappe if Mac Jones can’t go in this contest. Analysis for this game will likely come in late this week due to all the injury uncertainty in this contest.
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (Commanders +1.5, 43)
As I mentioned on Betting The NFL with Chris Fairley and Kate Constable on Monday, I pay attention to which teams I have a good read on. The Titans and Commanders are the two teams that I have the worst read on through the first four games. So, I’m staying completely away from this one.
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (Saints -5.5, 46)
I want to bet against Geno Smith coming off a massive spike game in Detroit last week. However, several key players on the Saints' offense are banged up and they are coming back from a game played in London. I can’t make any final decisions here until the Saints' injury situation is clearer.
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (Panthers +6.5, 39)
The 49ers' front four has a major trench advantage in this contest. I’m also interested in betting against the trio of Baker Mayfield, Matt Rhule, and Ben McAdoo whenever I can reasonably do so. That said, the 49ers' offense hasn’t exactly inspired a lot of confidence through the first four games, and they’ll be traveling cross country on a slightly short week.
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (Cardinals +5, 48.5)
The Eagles have a better secondary, defensive line, offensive line, and pass-catchers than the Cardinals. With the way Jalen Hurts is playing, the Eagles are even close at quarterback. From a football only sense, the Eagles could dominate this game in a variety of ways, while Kyler Murray carrying the Cardinals is the most logical path to a cover on the Arizona side. That said, Philadelphia is in a classic look-ahead situation with a primetime game against Dallas in Week 6, and they’ll be traveling cross country.
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Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (Rams -5.5, 43)
The Rams have been underwhelming to start this season. The Cowboys' pass rush could create real problems for the Rams' struggling offensive line, which is why this line being as high as it is surprises me. The downside is if the Cowboys go down by two scores with Cooper Rush at quarterback, they are in trouble.
Sunday Night Football: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (Ravens -3, 48.5)
This is a really good primetime divisional matchup between two AFC North contenders. The Bengals beat the Ravens twice last year, scoring 41 points in both contests. I’m expecting a closer contest here, though I don’t have any significant lean from a betting perspective.
Monday Night Football: Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Chiefs -6.5, 51)
I've got the Raiders +7.5 earlier this week simply because I thought that was too high. Derek Carr’s Raiders have given the Patrick Mahomes era Chiefs a number of contested games over the last few years. This Raiders team has more high-end talent than those did. My biggest concern with my Raiders bet is the Chiefs' front four against the Raiders' below-average offensive line.
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WATCH MORE: 15 Player Props to Take in Week 5
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