Analysis
11/3/22
7 min read
Week 9 NFL Defensive Efficiency Rankings
For the second straight week, one team tied for first in defensive efficiency has fallen from the top, and now the Denver Broncos find themselves alone in first place. They also find themselves without Bradley Chubb, as he was traded to the Miami Dolphins at the deadline. Chubb is currently 13th in Pass Rush Total Points amongst linebackers, but he is just 79th overall at the position because he has been below average against the run this year.
As for the team that had been tied with the Broncos? The Super Bowl-favorite Bills handled the ghost of Aaron Rodgers without issue, but they gave up more than 200 yards on the ground, including 153 after contact. They’re now tied for second with a surprising division rival, but before we dive too far into the list, here is a reminder about how this list works.
Defensive Efficiency Rankings Explained
Yards are easy to understand. As strange as it may be to say that about an Imperial unit of measurement, American football fans just get it. Expected points added (EPA), on the other hand – not so much. But, at its core, EPA is another way of expressing yards. More specifically, it communicates whether the yards on a play brought a team closer to scoring based on the field position and the down and distance. And while EPA is seldom expressed with a nice, whole number, it’s more intuitive than you might think.
For example, It’s easy to understand that a gain of five yards on fourth-and-4 is good, whereas a gain of five yards on fourth-and-6 is bad, and EPA can contextualize that in a way that net yards cannot. It also helps quantify the value of turnover plays. Another example would be a quarterback throwing a pick-six on first-and-goal from the opponent’s 1-yard line. Conventional wisdom would say that was a 14-point swing – because we expected the offense to score a touchdown in that situation – and EPA would reflect roughly that.
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1. Denver Broncos
EPA/Play = -0.17
Last Week = T-1
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T-2. Buffalo Bills
EPA/Play = -0.14
Last Week = T-1
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T-2. New York Jets
EPA/Play = -0.14
Last Week = #4
That’s right! Gang Green has moved into a virtual tie with Buffalo ahead of their upcoming matchup. Much has rightfully been made of Sauce Gardner’s impact, and the rookie has already ascended to the No.3 cornerback in the NFL by Total Points. But the Jets’ top pick from a few years ago, Quinnen Williams, has arguably achieved something more impressive. He leads all defensive tackles in Total Points, meaning if the season ended today, it would be the first time since the stat was born in 2016 that somebody besides Aaron Donald was the leader.
T-4. Dallas Cowboys
EPA/Play = -0.12
Last Week = #3
T-4. Philadelphia Eagles
EPA/Play = -0.12
Last Week = #5
6. New England Patriots
EPA/Play = -0.11
Last Week = T-7
7. Indianapolis Colts
EPA/Play = -0.09
Last Week = #T-9
T-8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
EPA/Play = -0.08
Last Week = #6
T-8. San Francisco 49ers
EPA/Play = -0.08
Last Week = T-9
T-10. Cincinnati Bengals
EPA/Play = -0.07
Last Week = T-7
T-10. Tennessee Titans
EPA/Play = -0.07
Last Week = T-17
After jumping from 28th to tied for 17th last week, the Titans made another leap and are jockeying for position with the regressing Bengals' defense for a spot in the top 10. Since getting blown out by the Bills in Week 2, Tennessee has reeled off five straight wins, the last four of which were against some of the bottom offenses in the league. Up next? Sunday night at Kansas City.
T-12. Washington Commanders
EPA/Play = -0.06
Last Week = T-13
T-12. Jacksonville Jaguars
EPA/Play = -0.06
Last Week = T-11
T-12. New Orleans Saints
EPA/Play = -0.06
Last Week = T-17
The Saints are a walking paradox. They are both a disappointing 3-5 and just a game out of first place in the NFC South. After a few shaky games by their defense, they shut out the otherwise formidable Raiders offense, holding them to less than 200 total yards. Josh Jacobs had at least six Total Points in three straight games before putting up a zero against the Who Dats. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will be an even tougher test on Monday night.
T-15. Seattle Seahawks
EPA/Play = -0.04
Last Week = T-19
T-15. Green Bay Packers
EPA/Play = -0.04
Last Week = #15
T-15. Carolina Panthers
EPA/Play = -0.04
Last Week = #16
18. New York Giants
EPA/Play = -0.03
Last Week = T-19
T-19. Los Angeles Rams
EPA/Play = -0.02
Last Week = T-11
The Rams dropped after the 49ers handled them for the second time this year, and the numbers indicate the Rams' problems are on the back end. While they play zone four times more often than they play man, the Rams are just 23rd in EPA/Attempt in the NFL in either scheme.
T-19. Chicago Bears
EPA/Play = -0.02
Last Week = T-13
The Bears' defense has kept them in many games this year, but giving up 49 points will generally send you down the rankings. On top of that, their newly depleted linebacker corps is more anonymous than a Guy Fawkes mask. On the bright side? They have a case for the best safety tandem in the league in Jaquan Brisker and Eddie Jackson.
T-21. Minnesota Vikings
EPA/Play = -0.01
Last Week = T-24
T-21. Cleveland Browns
EPA/Play = -0.01
Last Week = #29
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T-23. Baltimore Ravens
EPA/Play = 0.00
Last Week = T-19
After changing defensive coordinators from Wink Martindale to Mike Macdonald in the offseason, a few tendencies stand out. The Ravens have spent the highest percentage of time in Dime+ (six or more DBs) of any team in the NFL. This is the only personnel grouping where they have been above average. They also heavily favor and are much better in shell looks with two deep safeties when compared to single-high. Both of these tendencies call for a rangy, versatile middle linebacker, so it makes sense they traded for the No. 3 LB in Total Points, Roquan Smith.
T-23. Arizona Cardinals
EPA/Play = 0.00
Last Week = T-24
T-23. Los Angeles Chargers
EPA/Play = 0.00
Last Week = T-26
T-23. Kansas City Chiefs
EPA/Play = 0.00
Last Week = T-26
T-27. Houston Texans
EPA/Play = 0.01
Last Week = #28
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T-27. Miami Dolphins
EPA/Play = 0.01
Last Week = T-19
T-27. Pittsburgh Steelers
EPA/Play = 0.01
Last Week = T-19
30. Las Vegas Raiders
EPA/Play = 0.05
Last Week = #30
31. Atlanta Falcons
EPA/Play = 0.07
Last Week = #31
32. Detroit Lions
EPA/Play = 0.15
Last Week = #32
Prepared by Matt Manocherian
WATCH MORE: Is Baltimore a Contender With Smith Trade?
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