NFL Analysis
1/19/24
8 min read
What Antonio Pierce Must Do To Make His Raiders Tenure Successful
Maxx Crosby, Davante Adams and Josh Jabobs vocally supported Antonio Pierce as their preferred candidate as the next head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders.
The players will get their wish as Pierce is reportedly finalizing a deal to become the full-time head coach.
Pierce became the interim head coach when Josh McDaniels was fired after Week 8. Instantly, there was a vibe shift around the Raiders. That might not have been a high bar to clear given McDaniels was one of the worst-graded head coaches by an NFLPA survey following the 2022 season and an “airing of the grievances” team meeting was the final straw shortly before he was fired.
Culture is important, especially for a coach like Pierce who doesn’t call plays, but it was not limited to a culture change. It would be one thing if Pierce only lifted the mood in the locker room, but there was a clear shift in play under his watch.
Under McDaniels, the Raiders were 3-5 with a -61 point differential and a -8 turnover differential. With Pierce, the Raiders went 5-4 with a plus-62 point differential and a plus-6 turnover margin.
Improvement over the second half of the season does not guarantee success to carry over into the next season. Still, with Pierce, there was a clear reason why that improvement was made.
It’s also difficult to know how successful a first-time head coach will be, but we also have a sample of Pierce handling the job already. Pierce immediately got the buy-in from the most important players on the roster, which is part of what helped him get the interim tag lifted.
While the Raiders should be excited about this hire and the prospect of the future, there are a few questions that will need to be answered for this tenure to start right.
Will Patrick Graham Stay?
Much of the turnaround was on the defensive side of the ball, where Pierce was the linebackers coach before his promotion. Patrick Graham remained as the defensive coordinator and playcaller, but there was a clear shift in defensive structure when Pierce took over.
Under Pierce, the Raiders played with more light boxes while they improved against the run — the difference between the 29th-best success rate and eighth — and blitzed less often while they created more pressure and sacks.
Even in coverage, there were subtle changes. The Raiders remained a predominantly single-high defense but shifted from more Cover-1 to Cover-3 and in two-high, changed from Quarters to Cover-2.
From Week 9 on, Las Vegas ranked fourth in EPA per play, 12th in success rate and tied for ninth in yards per play. That stretch included a game against the Miami Dolphins and two against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Graham is highly regarded around the league and has gotten the most out of difficult situations and rosters with creative play design and play calling. He has already interviewed for the head coaching jobs with the Chargers, and the Seahawks requested to interview him. Graham has made the interview rounds during the past few hiring cycles.
Before Pierce was officially hired, a team requested to interview Graham for its defensive coordinator position but the Raiders denied that request since Graham is still under contract.
If he does not get a head coaching job, it seems more likely Graham would return to the Raiders and resume his coordinator duties, building on the second-half improvement.
What Is The Offensive Philosophy?
This will be one of the most important questions for Pierce. As the interim, he took over what was in place from McDaniels while there were some other changes to the offensive staff. It is expected most of the coaches on that side of the ball will not return.
The biggest shift for the offense was a more run-focused approach. The Raiders went from a 57 percent early down pass rate with McDaniels to 51.7 percent under Pierce. There was a bit of improvement. The Raiders went from -0.15 EPA per rush to -0.05 after the coaching change.
However, the success rate stayed mostly the same, and the difference came on more explosive runs with fewer gains of zero or negative yards.
Some of that improvement stemmed from a shift in offensive personnel. McDaniels was in favor of heavier formations with a fullback, but the offense under Pierce upped its rate of 11 personnel (three wide receivers) from 56.7 percent to 67.2 percent. The 11 personnel rate under Pierce was the 13th-highest in the league from Week 9 on.
Having more spread-out formations and lighter personnel also lightened the defensive box. Las Vegas rushing attempts went into a light box (six or fewer defenders) 28.3 percent of the time under Pierce, up from 20.0 percent with McDaniels.
More importantly, the rate of runs into a stacked box (eight or more defenders) dropped from 42.2 percent to 27.9 percent.
This also helped in the play-action game. The Raiders only used play-action on 15 percent of dropbacks under Pierce (though that was also higher than with McDaniels). However, Las Vegas’ quarterbacks averaged 0.19 EPA per play with play-action as opposed to -0.12.
While things were more spread and better designed, the biggest difference was Aidan O’Connell’s 6-0 touchdown-to-interception rate on play-action as an upgrade over the four interceptions thrown by Jimmy Garoppolo.
If Pierce wants to stick with that philosophy — a strong run game and play-action built off those run concepts — then someone from the McVay or Shanahan tree could make sense. Zac Robinson, the current quarterbacks coach for the Rams, could be an option.
It should also be noted that three-fifths of the offensive line and Jacobs are scheduled to be free agents.
Who’s Playing Quarterback?
The Raiders will likely cut Garoppolo this offseason after he was given a three-year, $72.75 million contract with $33.75 million guaranteed last offseason. Garoppolo lasted just 168 pass attempts before an injury sidelined him. While injured, McDaniels was fired, and Pierce went with O’Connell for the remainder of the season.
Garoppolo still has $11.25 million of his 2024 salary guaranteed, so releasing him outright would only save the Raiders $19,000 on the 2024 cap.
The Raiders have almost $40 million in cap space per Over The Cap, so they could take the full lump this offseason and leave the 2025 sheet clean rather than spreading out the dead money charge during the next two seasons with a post-June 1 cut.
Brian Hoyer, another ex-Patriot, also has $2.2 million of his 2024 salary guaranteed somehow when he signed a two-year deal last offseason. Still, without a McDaniels connection, there’s not much reason to keep the 38-year-old.
That leaves O’Connell. He was passable during his starting stretch, finishing 24th in EPA per play and success rate, but he’s not the type of quarterback that should prohibit a team from looking for an upgrade.
The issue is the Raiders aren’t in an ideal spot. Las Vegas’s end-of-season run was great for morale, but it knocked the team out of the top 10 of the draft. They’ll have the 13th overall pick when three quarterbacks might come off the board in the top three picks.
Justin Fields could be a trade candidate (interim general manager Champ Kelly was the Bears’ assistant director of player personnel when Fields was drafted).
The Raiders could go with a mid-tier veteran option like Jacoby Brissett, Tyler Huntley or Tyrod Taylor to pair with O’Connell. Much of that will depend on the offensive staff in place and the general manager, who has not been hired yet — though Kelly was part of the interview process for head coaches.
Pierce has done the work to show the proof of concept as a head coach but how he handles the next few months could be just as meaningful for the trajectory of his coaching career as those impressive nine games were to end the 2023 season.
